PFE vs MRNA: Pfizer vs Moderna Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Pfizer is a large diversified pharmaceutical company managing the post-COVID revenue normalization while building out ADC oncology through the Seagen acquisition; Moderna is a much smaller, more concentrated mRNA platform company still highly dependent on COVID vaccine revenue while racing to commercialise its pipeline. Pfizer is the defensive value position; Moderna is the higher-risk, higher-potential-reward platform bet.
Use this PFE vs MRNA comparison to choose between large-cap pharma value and mRNA platform optionality. Pfizer offers a high dividend yield and diversified revenue while navigating COVID headwinds; Moderna offers exposure to the mRNA platform's broader potential, anchored by a potentially landmark personalised cancer vaccine, at the cost of significant cash burn risk.
PFE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+505.20% vs +14.76%), though PFE has the better forward P/E setup (9.83x vs -30.13x for MRNA). PFE leads on both revenue growth (2.60%) and operating margin (27.88%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PFE (+0.55%) than for MRNA (-22.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a high-dividend-yield large-cap pharma with a diversified product portfolio
- Value ADC oncology exposure through the Seagen acquisition as a pipeline catalyst
- Prefer a more defensive pharma position with established blockbuster revenue
- Are patient with post-COVID revenue normalisation as a temporary headwind, not a structural decline
- Want exposure to the mRNA platform's potentially transformative impact beyond COVID vaccines
- Believe mRNA-4157 personalised cancer vaccine could be a landmark product if Phase 3 confirms Phase 2 data
- Have a higher risk tolerance and are comfortable with meaningful cash burn during the pipeline build-out period
- View Moderna as a biotech platform investment rather than a traditional dividend pharma holding
| Metric | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.1 | 56.6 |
| AI ranki | #1237 | #239 |
| Latest closei | $28.45 | $145.55 |
| 1M returni | +10.23% | +158.73% |
| 6M returni | +6.91% | +170.39% |
| 1Y returni | +14.76% | +505.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.59K (+15.9%) started 2025-09-04 | $59.95K (+499.5%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $8.86K (-11.4%) started 2021-09-07 | $3.34K (-66.6%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $19.48K (+94.8%) started 2016-09-06 | $78.25K (+682.5%) started 2018-12-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $162.16B | $55.09B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.43 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.83 | -30.13 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.13 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.36 | 23.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $28.61 | $106.63 |
| Target upsidei | +0.55% | -22.73% |
| Metric | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.60% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -10.10% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -10.10% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +19.60% | +13.43% |
| Operating margini | 27.88% | -557.93% |
| Profit margini | 6.80% | -141.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | 5.01% | -39.00% |
| Return on equityi | 5.01% | -39.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.05% | N/A |
| Betai | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 74.25 | 19.04 |
| Current ratioi | 1.27 | 2.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.85 | 2.07 |
Over the past year, PFE and MRNA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.23), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +15.93% | +499.46% |
| CAGRi | +15.96% | +501.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.88% | 191.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 1.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 5.89 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.09% | 34.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.96% | 16.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.69% | 11.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.89% | 13.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.98% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.46% | 18.08% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -27.16% | -66.65% |
| CAGRi | -6.15% | -19.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.42% | 103.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.30 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.44 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.96% | 95.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 44.89% | 68.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 37.97% | 76.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.30% | 77.95% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.72% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.19% | 33.81% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +24.79% | +682.53% |
| CAGRi | +2.24% | +30.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.09% | 96.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.96% | 95.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 44.89% | 69.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.35% | 57.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.22% | 65.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.73% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.34% | 33.81% |
| Category | PFE | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Pfizer Inc. | Moderna, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Biotechnology |
| Core business | One of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. Products include Paxlovid (COVID antiviral), Eliquis (blood thinner), Prevnar (pneumococcal vaccine), Vyndaqel (ATTR-cardiomyopathy), and an extensive oncology, rare disease, and vaccine pipeline. Recent acquisitions include Seagen (ADC oncology). | Biotechnology company focused on mRNA medicines. Currently markets Spikevax (COVID vaccine) and Mresvia (RSV vaccine for older adults). Extensive pipeline includes influenza, personalised cancer vaccines (with Merck), CMV, and rare disease programs. |
| Investor focus | Post-COVID revenue floor stabilisation, non-COVID business growth, Seagen ADC oncology ramp, pipeline productivity, cost restructuring, and dividend sustainability. | mRNA pipeline beyond COVID — RSV launch, flu vaccine combination, personalised cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) data, and cash burn management against the product timeline. |
- Massive diversified pharmaceutical portfolio with multiple blockbuster drugs across therapeutic areas
- Seagen acquisition positions Pfizer as a leader in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) oncology — a high-growth area
- One of the highest dividend yields among large-cap pharma, backed by substantial free cash flow
- Pioneered commercial mRNA medicine with COVID vaccines — unique platform expertise and manufacturing know-how
- mRNA-4157 personalised cancer vaccine (with Merck) is potentially the most significant oncology catalyst in years
- RSV vaccine approval establishes the second commercial mRNA product and validates the broader platform
- COVID product revenues (Paxlovid, Comirnaty) declined sharply from pandemic peaks and have been volatile
- Heavy M&A has increased debt levels, requiring successful execution to justify acquisition premiums
- Patent cliff risk on several major products over the next few years requires pipeline to fill revenue gaps
- COVID vaccine revenues continue declining — Moderna is burning significant cash as it awaits pipeline approvals
- mRNA-4157 cancer vaccine timeline risk — Phase 3 results needed to confirm Phase 2 signal before commercial reality
- Competition in RSV vaccine market (GSK, Pfizer Abrysvo) limits Mresvia's revenue upside
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