MRNA vs RXRX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MRNA is a commercial-stage biotech with real mRNA vaccine revenues working to diversify beyond COVID into broader mRNA therapeutics, while RXRX is an early clinical-stage company betting that AI-powered drug discovery will accelerate and improve drug development. Both represent technology-forward approaches to biopharmaceutical innovation at very different stages of commercial validation.
MRNA vs RXRX compares two biotechnology companies using novel technology platforms — mRNA therapeutics versus AI drug discovery — at different stages of commercial maturity and near-term risk profiles.
MRNA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+817.06% vs -32.35%), though RXRX has the better forward P/E setup (-3.78x vs -30.13x for MRNA). MRNA leads on both revenue growth (2.10%) and operating margin (-557.93%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RXRX (+113.51%) than for MRNA (-22.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the commercial leader in mRNA therapeutics technology
- Believe the mRNA platform will produce multiple successful products beyond COVID vaccines
- Value the large cash balance that provides Moderna runway through its pipeline maturation
- Want high-risk, high-reward exposure to AI-powered drug discovery
- Believe Recursion's technology platform will prove commercially viable in clinical trials
- Are comfortable with pre-revenue, clinical-stage biotech risk in exchange for transformative upside
| Metric | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.4 | 22.4 |
| AI ranki | #198 | #4140 |
| Latest closei | $228.44 | $3.68 |
| 1M returni | +20.23% | -10.68% |
| 3M returni | +300.84% | +11.18% |
| 6M returni | +389.06% | +9.20% |
| 1Y returni | +817.06% | -32.35% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $96.19K (+861.9%) started 2025-11-04 | $6.76K (-32.4%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $8.04K (-19.6%) started 2021-11-04 | $1.89K (-81.1%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $122.82K (+1128.2%) started 2018-12-07 | $1.18K (-88.2%) started 2021-04-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.09B | $1.81B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -30.13 | -3.78 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 23.00 | 23.77 |
| Analyst targeti | $106.63 | $7.22 |
| Target upsidei | -22.73% | +113.51% |
| Metric | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.10% | -60.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +13.43% | -400.13% |
| Operating margini | -557.93% | -1759.69% |
| Profit margini | -141.43% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -39.00% | -56.58% |
| Return on equityi | -39.00% | -56.58% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Debt/equityi | 19.04 | 7.28 |
| Current ratioi | 2.29 | 5.03 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.07 | 4.67 |
Over the past year, MRNA and RXRX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.35), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +861.85% | -32.35% |
| CAGRi | +866.30% | -32.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 194.55% | 73.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.72 | -0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 6.66 | -0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.16% | 47.79% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.07% | 32.35% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.99% | 31.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.11% | 33.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 16.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.08% | 20.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -19.57% | -81.15% |
| CAGRi | -4.26% | -28.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 104.44% | 93.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.93% | 86.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.01% | 82.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 71.81% | 63.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 73.94% | 66.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 21.13% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.60% | 35.25% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1128.17% | -88.24% |
| CAGRi | +37.31% | -32.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.57% | 92.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.33 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.38% | 93.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 52.85% | 91.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.57% | 76.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 65.33% | 78.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 21.13% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.81% | 35.25% |
| Category | MRNA | RXRX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Moderna, Inc. | Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Biotechnology | Biotechnology |
| Core business | Moderna is a clinical-stage and commercial biotechnology company that pioneered mRNA therapeutics, generating substantial revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax) while advancing a broad pipeline of mRNA vaccines and therapeutics across oncology, rare diseases, and infectious diseases. | Recursion is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using artificial intelligence, machine learning, and high-throughput biological experimentation to accelerate drug discovery across oncology, rare diseases, and other indications. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine revenue trajectory (now declining from peak), progress of its next major potential revenue drivers (RSV vaccine, cancer vaccines, rare disease programs), and the pace of operating expense reduction to extend cash runway. | Investors track Recursion's pipeline advancement toward clinical milestones, its technology platform partnerships (including NVIDIA), and its ability to demonstrate that AI-powered drug discovery can produce viable commercial therapies. |
- Pioneered mRNA vaccine technology at commercial scale, creating a durable manufacturing and platform advantage
- Large cash balance from COVID vaccine revenues funds an extensive pipeline without near-term capital needs
- Personalized cancer vaccines (mRNA-4157 with Merck) represent a potentially transformative new therapeutic category
- Vertically integrated AI and biology platform combining robotic experimentation with machine learning at scale
- Strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and others validate the technology platform and provide resources
- Broad pipeline across multiple disease areas generated by its automated discovery engine
- COVID-19 vaccine revenues are declining sharply from pandemic peaks toward an endemic baseline
- None of Moderna's post-COVID pipeline candidates have yet achieved commercial approval
- Significant operating expenses require successful product launches beyond COVID vaccines to sustain the business
- Clinical stage only — no commercial products; clinical trial success is necessary to validate the platform commercially
- AI-powered drug discovery is still a largely unproven commercial approach with few AI-discovered drugs approved to date
- Significant cash burn from operating a large AI and wet lab infrastructure requires continued capital access
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