LIVE
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc. · AI Software
$128.47
-5.02% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. · AI Software
$3.92
+2.08% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
PLTR
2
BBAI
1
Comparison scoreboard
PLTR LEADS 2/5AI Score
PLTR ✓58.9
BBAI 23.1
1Y Return
PLTR -7.04%
BBAI ✓-1.01%
Fwd P/E
PLTR 61.52
BBAI N/A
Target Up.
PLTR ✓+43.55%
BBAI +36.05%
Op. Margin
PLTR 46.18%
BBAI N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
PLTR vs BBAI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PLTR and BBAI both serve US defense and government AI markets but at dramatically different scale and financial health. Palantir is a $100B+ market cap S&P 500 member that is GAAP profitable with $2B+ revenue. BigBear.ai is a small-cap SPAC-originated company with operating losses and much smaller contract base. The comparison is the established large-cap defense AI leader versus a speculative small-cap challenger.
PLTR vs BBAI — Palantir Technologies (the GAAP-profitable S&P 500 enterprise AI platform with deep government intelligence roots and accelerating AIP commercial adoption) versus BigBear.ai (the small-cap SPAC-originated defense AI specialist with identity and supply chain analytics for DoD, operating at losses with significant financial risk).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
PLTR holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BBAI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-1.01% vs -7.04% for PLTR). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PLTR (+43.55%) than for BBAI (+36.05%).
Normalized 1Y performance
PLTR
BBAI
Recent returns
PLTR
BBAI
Analyst price targets & sentiment
PLTR · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (3.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$40.00
analyst mean$183.73
current price$128.47
+43.5% upside to analyst mean
BBAI · 3 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$5.00
analyst high$6.00
analyst mean$5.33
current price$3.92
+36.1% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
PLTR may suit investors who:
- →believe enterprise AI platform network effects favor Palantir's AIP — as commercial customers build on AIP's ontology data model, proprietary data creates compounding switching costs
- →value GAAP profitability and S&P 500 membership as proof of business model durability — Palantir's 2024 inflection changes its investor base from speculative to institutional
- →want US defense AI through a diversified government + commercial dual revenue stream with strong free cash flow generation
- →are comfortable with 80-100x revenue valuation requiring sustained execution and multiple compression risk if commercial growth decelerates
BBAI may suit investors who:
- →seek high-risk small-cap defense AI speculation — a large DoD contract win could dramatically re-rate BigBear's valuation from its small base
- →believe defense AI specialization in identity intelligence and autonomous systems provides niche advantages large platforms can't easily replicate
- →want asymmetric upside from a small-cap defense AI challenger at a fraction of Palantir's valuation with similar defense market exposure themes
- →are comfortable with operating losses, SPAC dilution legacy, and the possibility BigBear fails to scale before Palantir or established defense primes capture the contracts
Performance & AI score
| Metric | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 58.9 | 23.1 |
| AI rank | #183 | #3747 |
| Latest close | $128.47 | $3.92 |
| 1M return | -5.02% | +2.08% |
| 6M return | -27.54% | -27.94% |
| 1Y return | -7.04% | -1.01% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.18K (-8.2%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.9K (-1.0%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $50.54K (+405.4%) started 2021-06-21 | $3.98K (-60.2%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $135.23K (+1252.3%) started 2020-09-30 | $3.99K (-60.1%) started 2021-04-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $306.83B | $1.88B |
| Trailing P/E | 142.21 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 61.52 | N/A |
| Price/Sales | 96.76 | 14.74 |
| EV/Revenue | 57.26 | 12.34 |
| Analyst target | $183.73 | $5.33 |
| Target upside | +43.55% | +36.05% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 84.70% | -0.90% |
| Earnings growth | 325.00% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +325.00% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +33.56% | -46.71% |
| Operating margin | 46.18% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 43.67% | -226.69% |
| ROIC proxy | 32.59% | -58.43% |
| Return on equity | 32.59% | -58.43% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.51 | 3.08 |
| Debt/equity | 2.48 | 3.05 |
| Current ratio | 6.91 | 6.08 |
| Quick ratio | 6.82 | 5.80 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
PLTR max drawdown38.22%
BBAI max drawdown65.88%
PLTR max wkly drop15.63%
BBAI max wkly drop26.09%
5Y risk snapshot
PLTR max drawdown79.14%
BBAI max drawdown95.01%
PLTR max wkly drop38.89%
BBAI max wkly drop47.33%
10Y risk snapshot
PLTR max drawdown84.62%
BBAI max drawdown95.01%
PLTR max wkly drop38.89%
BBAI max wkly drop47.33%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -8.21% | -1.01% |
| CAGR | -8.22% | -1.01% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.00 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdown | 38.22% | 65.88% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.62% | 15.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.63% | 26.09% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +405.39% | -60.16% |
| CAGR | +38.34% | -16.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.75 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 79.14% | 95.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.31% | 39.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.89% | 47.33% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1252.32% | -60.12% |
| CAGR | +57.73% | -16.20% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.93 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdown | 84.62% | 95.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.31% | 39.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.89% | 47.33% |
Business comparison
| Category | PLTR | BBAI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Palantir Technologies Inc. | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | AI Software |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | N/A |
| Core business | Palantir is an enterprise AI and data analytics platform serving government agencies and commercial enterprises. Flagship products — Gotham (government), Foundry (commercial), and AIP (AI Platform) — enable organizations to integrate disparate data and build AI-powered workflows. AIP boot camps and rapid deployment programs have accelerated commercial expansion. Palantir became GAAP profitable and joined the S&P 500 in 2024. Revenue is split roughly 55% government, 45% commercial and growing. | BigBear.ai is a defense-focused AI analytics company providing decision intelligence solutions to US defense and intelligence agencies. Products include supply chain intelligence, identity intelligence, and autonomous systems analytics for military and national security use cases. BigBear went public via SPAC in 2021. Revenue is primarily government contracts. BigBear has faced losses and balance sheet challenges as a small-cap SPAC-originated company competing with larger platforms like Palantir, SAIC, and Leidos. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Palantir's AIP commercial expansion, US commercial customer count growth, government contract wins, and S&P 500 inclusion driving passive institutional buying. | Investors focus on BigBear.ai's DoD contract wins and renewals, revenue growth trajectory, path to profitability, and differentiation from established defense AI platforms. |
PLTR strengths
- →AIP commercial acceleration: Palantir's AI Platform boot camps convert prospects to paying customers in days — US commercial revenue growing 70%+ YoY in 2024
- →Government defensibility: classified Gotham work creates extremely high switching costs — government customers rarely exit after deep integration with sensitive national security data
- →GAAP profitability and S&P 500 inclusion: 2024 S&P 500 addition triggered passive index fund buying — institutional ownership transition from speculative to index-mandated
BBAI strengths
- →Defense AI specialization: focus on identity intelligence and autonomous systems provides specialized capabilities aligned with DoD modernization priorities
- →Supply chain intelligence for DoD: military logistics analytics is an underpenetrated market where BigBear's solutions could capture niche government contracts
- →Small-cap option on defense AI growth: if US military AI budgets grow, specialist contractors like BigBear can capture niche wins before larger primes compete for them
Risks to watch — PLTR
- →Premium valuation on high revenue multiple: Palantir trades at 80-100x revenue — requiring sustained high-growth execution to justify among the most expensive software stock multiples
- →Government contract concentration: government revenue is lumpy — contract delays, political changes, or budget sequestration can cause quarterly revenue misses
- →Competition from AI platform giants: Microsoft Copilot and cloud provider AI services increasingly compete with Palantir's commercial AI platform positioning
Risks to watch — BBAI
- →Operating losses and cash burn: BigBear.ai has consistently lost money with limited revenue scale — balance sheet sustainability is a concern competing against Palantir's $4B+ annual revenue
- →SPAC-originated dilution: legacy warrant dilution and governance issues from SPAC structure create ongoing shareholder dilution risk
- →Competition from established defense integrators: Palantir, Leidos, SAIC, and Booz Allen all compete in defense AI — BigBear must win niche contracts against better-capitalized incumbents
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