OUST vs MVIS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
OUST and MVIS are both LiDAR companies targeting autonomous vehicle sensing but at different stages. Ouster (merged with Velodyne) has $100M+ revenue from industrial and infrastructure applications with the largest independent LiDAR revenue base. MicroVision is an earlier-stage automotive LiDAR pure-play with MAVIN technology in OEM evaluation but no production revenue. Both are pre-profitability; Ouster has more commercial substance; MicroVision is the higher-risk speculation on automotive OEM design win.
OUST vs MVIS — Ouster (the largest independent LiDAR company from the Velodyne merger with digital CMOS architecture and $100M+ industrial/infrastructure revenue) versus MicroVision (the early-stage automotive LiDAR pure-play with MAVIN long-range performance in OEM evaluation seeking the design win that would validate its commercial future).
OUST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. OUST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-8.64% vs -92.52% for MVIS). On fundamentals, MVIS is growing revenue faster (895.90%), while OUST maintains the higher operating margin (-46.58%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer LiDAR exposure with actual commercial revenue from industrial robotics, smart infrastructure, and agriculture applications while automotive adoption develops
- believe the Velodyne merger created meaningful scale advantages — larger combined R&D, customer base, and manufacturing capacity than either company had independently
- want the largest independent LiDAR company with the most commercial substance in a challenging market where survival requires more than automotive speculation
- are comfortable with continued operating losses, LiDAR commoditization from Chinese competitors, and automotive adoption timeline uncertainty
- seek high-risk, high-reward automotive LiDAR pure-play speculation — a major OEM design win announcement could cause dramatic stock re-rating from a low market cap base
- believe MicroVision's MAVIN long-range LiDAR performance claims will prove compelling in OEM evaluations against competing LiDAR systems
- want exposure to potential acquisition premium if a Tier 1 automotive supplier or technology company acquires MicroVision's LiDAR IP and engineering team
- are comfortable with pre-production revenue, severe cash burn creating survivability risk, and the possibility MicroVision fails to win OEM commitments before financial distress forces outcomes
| Metric | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.4 | 22.9 |
| AI ranki | #3095 | #3785 |
| Latest closei | $28.98 | $1.29 |
| 1M returni | -34.72% | -12.84% |
| 3M returni | -39.42% | -64.75% |
| 6M returni | +1.33% | -87.16% |
| 1Y returni | -8.64% | -92.52% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.14K (-8.6%) started 2025-11-03 | $747.83 (-92.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $4.18K (-58.2%) started 2021-11-04 | $98.62 (-99.0%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $2.99K (-70.1%) started 2020-10-09 | $811.32 (-91.9%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.51B | $43.92M |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -278.64 | N/A |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 8.73 |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.51 | 9.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $59.40 | N/A |
| Target upsidei | +70.54% | N/A |
| Metric | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 55.90% | 895.90% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -28.00% | -574.04% |
| Operating margini | -46.58% | -889.17% |
| Profit margini | -26.02% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -18.01% | -197.81% |
| Return on equityi | -18.01% | -197.81% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 3.27 | 1.29 |
| Debt/equityi | 4.42 | 187.05 |
| Current ratioi | 4.16 | 0.80 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.53 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, OUST and MVIS have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.35), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.64% | -92.52% |
| CAGRi | -8.64% | -92.54% | |
| Volatilityi | 102.79% | 111.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | -1.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | -2.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.25% | 93.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.65% | 92.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.91% | 53.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.00% | 60.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.96% | 40.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.57% | 61.94% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -58.18% | -99.01% |
| CAGRi | -16.01% | -60.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 100.26% | 94.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | -0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | -0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.80% | 99.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 62.41% | 99.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 75.48% | 77.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 77.80% | 78.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.67% | 40.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.34% | 61.94% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -70.12% | -91.89% |
| CAGRi | -18.05% | -22.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.82% | 117.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.35 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 98.01% | 99.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.17% | 99.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 77.88% | 71.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 81.91% | 76.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.67% | 53.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.34% | 62.12% |
| Category | OUST | MVIS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ouster, Inc. | MicroVision, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Autonomous Technology |
| Industry | Electronic Components | Scientific & Technical Instruments |
| Core business | Ouster is a digital LiDAR company providing 3D sensing solutions for industrial robotics, smart infrastructure, and autonomous vehicles. Ouster merged with Velodyne in 2023, creating the largest pure-play LiDAR company by revenue. Ouster's digital LiDAR approach uses a different CMOS-based semiconductor architecture that is theoretically more scalable for cost reduction than analog LiDAR. Ouster serves robotics, mapping, agriculture, ports, mining, and emerging automotive customers. Revenue is $100M+ annually with continued losses. | MicroVision is a technology company that transitioned from laser beam scanning (LBS) display technology to automotive LiDAR sensing. MicroVision's MAVIN long-range LiDAR sensor targets automotive OEM applications requiring 200m+ detection range for highway autonomous driving. MicroVision has been developing automotive-grade LiDAR for years and has conducted OEM testing, but has not secured major volume production contracts. Revenue remains minimal — MicroVision is an early-stage automotive LiDAR company burning cash while pursuing OEM design wins. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Ouster's revenue growth, gross margin improvement, path to profitability, and whether digital LiDAR achieves the cost and performance inflection needed for mass-market automotive adoption. | Investors watch MicroVision's MAVIN LiDAR OEM demo evaluations, potential design win announcements, and strategic interest from automotive OEMs or Tier 1 suppliers. |
- Merged scale from Velodyne combination: the Ouster-Velodyne merger created the largest independent LiDAR company — more resources for R&D, manufacturing scale, and customer base than either company alone
- Digital CMOS LiDAR cost reduction path: Ouster's CMOS-based architecture is designed to leverage semiconductor manufacturing cost curves — theoretically enabling dramatic LiDAR cost reduction as volume scales
- Industrial and smart infrastructure revenue today: Ouster's non-automotive revenue (robotics, infrastructure, agriculture) provides current commercial momentum while automotive adoption develops
- Long-range MAVIN LiDAR performance claims: MicroVision's MAVIN LiDAR system has demonstrated long-range performance in OEM evaluations — technical capability claims suggest competitive automotive performance specification
- Potential for strategic partnership or acquisition: MicroVision's automotive LiDAR IP and technology could attract acquisition interest from Tier 1 automotive suppliers (Bosch, Continental) or technology companies entering automotive sensing
- Lower market cap creates higher upside potential: at a smaller market cap than Ouster, a single major OEM design win could represent a much larger percentage gain for MicroVision shareholders
- Continued operating losses: Ouster has not achieved profitability — the cash burn timeline creates financing risk if LiDAR adoption in automotive is slower than projected
- LiDAR technology commoditization: Chinese LiDAR manufacturers (Hesai, Innoviz) are producing competitively priced units threatening margins across the LiDAR industry
- Automotive adoption timeline elongation: automotive LiDAR adoption has been repeatedly pushed out — OEM production volume decisions directly impact Ouster's revenue trajectory
- No production revenue or committed OEM contracts: MicroVision has demonstrated technology but lacks committed production volume — OEM selection processes are multi-year with no guarantee of outcome
- Severe cash burn with minimal revenue: MicroVision burns cash with very limited revenue — financial survival depends on capital raises or a strategic partner/acquirer materializing before cash is exhausted
- Automotive LiDAR competition is intensifying: Luminar, Ouster/Velodyne, Cepton (acquired by Magna), and international competitors all compete for the same OEM design wins MicroVision needs to survive
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