TSLA vs RIVN: Tesla vs Rivian — Which EV Stock Is the Better Buy?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Tesla is a profitable, global-scale EV and energy business with autonomous driving and robotics optionality, while Rivian is an early-stage EV manufacturer still working toward profitability with a focused product lineup and key partnerships. The comparison often comes down to growth stage preference: established platform vs. high-risk, high-reward turnaround.
Use this TSLA vs RIVN comparison to weigh an established but high-multiple EV leader against a pre-profitability EV challenger. Tesla is valued partly on autonomous and energy upside; Rivian is a bet on unit economics improvement and the VW and Amazon relationships.
TSLA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RIVN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-8.44% vs -15.21%), though TSLA has the better forward P/E setup (161.56x vs -8.74x for RIVN). On fundamentals, RIVN is growing revenue faster (27.20%), while TSLA maintains the higher operating margin (1.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RIVN (+23.20%) than for TSLA (+11.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest and most profitable EV platform with autonomous driving optionality
- Believe FSD and Robotaxi represent a transformative long-term revenue opportunity
- Are comfortable with a high multiple that prices in execution of future products
- Want energy storage exposure alongside vehicles as a diversified clean energy play
- Are willing to take early-stage EV risk in exchange for higher potential upside
- Believe Rivian's R2 cost reduction and VW partnership will drive unit economics improvement
- Value the Amazon EDV anchor relationship as a commercial volume floor
- Have a longer time horizon and can tolerate continued near-term cash burn
| Metric | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 71.2 | 23.6 |
| AI ranki | #34 | #3406 |
| Latest closei | $372.22 | $11.83 |
| 1M returni | -2.08% | -21.24% |
| 3M returni | +18.91% | -25.32% |
| 6M returni | -1.08% | -28.39% |
| 1Y returni | -15.21% | -8.44% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.29K (-17.1%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.04K (-9.6%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $10.9K (+9.0%) started 2021-10-25 | $1.17K (-88.3%) started 2021-11-10 |
| 10Y ago | $275.36K (+2653.6%) started 2016-10-24 | $1.17K (-88.3%) started 2021-11-10 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.38T | $22.6B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 322.92 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 161.56 | -8.74 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.03 | 3.83 |
| Analyst targeti | $390.09 | $19.23 |
| Target upsidei | +11.85% | +23.20% |
| Metric | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.50% | 27.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +4.67% | -26.17% |
| Operating margini | 1.41% | -50.42% |
| Profit margini | 3.67% | -54.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.67% | -57.52% |
| Return on equityi | 4.67% | -57.52% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.83 | 1.61 |
| Debt/equityi | 18.37 | 104.41 |
| Current ratioi | 1.94 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.35 | 1.57 |
Over the past year, TSLA and RIVN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.39), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -17.10% | -9.63% |
| CAGRi | -17.12% | -9.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.01% | 70.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.29 | 0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.40 | 0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.10% | 47.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 47.31% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.01% | 25.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.09% | 27.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.52% | 18.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.24% | 19.21% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +8.96% | -88.26% |
| CAGRi | +1.73% | -35.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.68% | 76.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | -0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 95.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 93.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.41% | 86.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.21% | 87.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.43% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.20% | 39.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2653.65% | -88.26% |
| CAGRi | +39.33% | -35.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.57% | 76.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.78 | -0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.17 | -0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 95.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 93.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.53% | 86.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.79% | 87.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.06% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.05% | 39.27% |
| Category | TSLA | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Tesla, Inc. | Rivian Automotive, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | EV design and manufacturing, energy storage, solar, autonomous driving software (FSD), and the Supercharger network. Expanding into robotics (Optimus) and Robotaxi. | EV manufacturer focused on adventure trucks (R1T), SUVs (R1S), and commercial delivery vans (EDV) for Amazon. Joint development agreement with Volkswagen Group. |
| Investor focus | FSD progress and Robotaxi commercialisation, energy storage growth, Optimus robotics optionality, gross margin recovery, and volume growth in China and Europe. | Path to gross profit and cash flow breakeven, R2 platform launch timing, Amazon EDV delivery ramp, and VW partnership technology access. |
- Largest EV maker globally with the most mature manufacturing scale and lowest cost structure
- Supercharger network becoming the North American standard, generating recurring revenue
- FSD and Robotaxi represent a high-upside autonomous platform business beyond the car
- Loyal enthusiast brand with strong demand for R1 platform vehicles among outdoor and adventure buyers
- Amazon EDV partnership provides a large committed commercial order with a high-quality anchor customer
- VW joint development agreement provides capital, technology access, and potential cost improvements
- Price cuts compressing automotive gross margins
- Increasing EV competition in China from BYD and local manufacturers
- Elon Musk brand and execution risk across multiple ventures
- Sustained cash burn with no near-term path to profitability
- High manufacturing costs relative to selling price
- Execution risk on R2 platform launch and cost reduction targets
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