Data as of:
LIVE
MP
MP Materials Corp. · Materials - Rare Earth Mining & Processing
$47.26
-16.62% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
POWW
AMMO Inc. · Consumer Discretionary / Defense - Ammunition Manufacturing
$2.19
-3.95% this month
Comparison scoreboard
POWW LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
MP ✓53.8
POWW 25.2
1Y Returni
MP -34.48%
POWW ✓+53.15%
Fwd P/Ei
MP 61.81
POWW N/A
Target Up.i
MP +37.80%
POWW ✓+59.82%
Op. Margini
MP -14.72%
POWW ✓22.76%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
MP vs AMMO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MP Materials (MP) and AMMO Inc. (POWW) are both natural resources and manufacturing companies but serving entirely different markets — MP Materials is a strategic national security and clean energy play as the only U.S. rare earth ore producer building a domestic neodymium permanent magnet supply chain for EVs, while AMMO Inc. is a specialty ammunition manufacturer with proprietary Streak technology and the GunBroker online marketplace.
MP vs AMMO is the only U.S. rare earth producer building a domestic EV magnet supply chain with strategic government backing (MP Materials' Mountain Pass mine, NdPr oxide refining, and Fort Worth magnet manufacturing — national security tailwinds and EV secular demand with NdPr price China-dependency) versus specialty ammunition manufacturer with proprietary tracer technology and online gun marketplace (AMMO Inc.'s Streak Visual Ammunition differentiation and GunBroker marketplace platform — civilian demand cyclicality and competitive ammunition market dynamics) — critical national security material versus civilian recreation/defense specialty manufacturing.
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
POWW holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. POWW has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+53.15% vs -34.48% for MP). On fundamentals, MP is growing revenue faster (119.70%), while POWW maintains the higher operating margin (22.76%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for POWW (+59.82%) than for MP (+37.80%).
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
MP
POWW
Recent returns
MP
POWW
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
MP
Price target range
analyst mean$75.38
current price$47.26
+37.8% upside to analyst mean
POWW · 2 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$3.00
analyst high$4.00
analyst mean$3.50
current price$2.19
+59.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
MP may suit investors who:
- Believe the U.S. government's commitment to domestic rare earth supply chain development (DoD contracts, IRA incentives) provides durable financial support for MP Materials' capital-intensive buildout
- See EV adoption growth as a structural demand driver for NdPr permanent magnets that will absorb Mountain Pass production growth over a multi-year horizon
- Value MP's Fort Worth magnet manufacturing as a transformational expansion that will capture downstream magnet margins and reduce NdPr oxide price volatility impact
POWW may suit investors who:
- Value GunBroker.com's dominant firearms marketplace position as a high-margin, recurring revenue platform that provides a moat beyond pure ammunition manufacturing
- See Streak Visual Ammunition's non-incendiary tracer technology as a proprietary product differentiation that can expand into law enforcement and military markets
- Believe AMMO's U.S.-only manufacturing qualifies it for federal and state law enforcement ammunition contracts that exclude offshore producers
Performance & AI score
| Metric | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.8 | 25.2 |
| AI ranki | #320 | #2913 |
| Latest closei | $47.26 | $2.19 |
| 1M returni | -16.62% | -3.95% |
| 6M returni | -6.60% | +14.06% |
| 1Y returni | -34.48% | +53.15% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.45K (-35.5%) started 2025-09-19 | $15.31K (+53.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $14.94K (+49.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $3.58K (-64.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $47.26K (+372.6%) started 2020-06-22 | $5.62K (-43.8%) started 2017-02-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.74B | $254.17M |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 109.50 |
| Forward P/Ei | 61.81 | N/A |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 4.73 |
| EV/Revenuei | 22.86 | 3.52 |
| Analyst targeti | $75.38 | $3.50 |
| Target upsidei | +37.80% | +59.82% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 119.70% | 22.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -104.01% | +20.87% |
| Operating margini | -14.72% | 22.76% |
| Profit margini | -14.56% | 12.09% |
| ROIC proxyi | -3.58% | 1.96% |
| Return on equityi | -3.58% | 1.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.92 | 1.02 |
| Debt/equityi | 41.40 | 4.61 |
| Current ratioi | 9.51 | 4.74 |
| Quick ratioi | 8.44 | 4.51 |
Correlation
Over the past year, MP and POWW have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.11), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.11
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.24
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.24
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
MP max drawdowni61.38%
POWW max drawdowni22.12%
MP max wkly dropi24.88%
POWW max wkly dropi13.28%
5Y risk snapshot
MP max drawdowni81.99%
POWW max drawdowni86.54%
MP max wkly dropi24.88%
POWW max wkly dropi32.48%
10Y risk snapshot
MP max drawdowni81.99%
POWW max drawdowni89.99%
MP max wkly dropi25.69%
POWW max wkly dropi53.20%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -35.45% | +53.15% |
| CAGRi | -35.54% | +53.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 75.82% | 48.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.27 | 1.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.39 | 1.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.38% | 22.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 52.09% | 14.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.40% | 7.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.18% | 9.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.99% | 9.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.88% | 13.28% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +49.37% | -64.22% |
| CAGRi | +8.36% | -18.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.13% | 57.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | -0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.99% | 86.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 52.09% | 69.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.70% | 64.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.56% | 67.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.29% | 28.69% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.88% | 32.48% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +372.60% | -43.85% |
| CAGRi | +28.26% | -5.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.25% | 96.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.99% | 89.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 52.09% | 77.63% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.79% | 59.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.45% | 64.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.27% | 41.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.69% | 53.20% |
Business comparison
| Category | MP | POWW |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MP Materials Corp. | AMMO Inc. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Consumer Discretionary / Defense - Ammunition Manufacturing |
| Industry | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | MP Materials is the only U.S. rare earth element (REE) producer, operating the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in the Mojave Desert of California — once the world's largest rare earth mine before Chinese competition caused closure. MP Materials produces rare earth ore concentrate (bastnasite ore) and is ramping refining operations to produce separated rare earth oxides, primarily neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr) — the critical element for neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets used in electric vehicle traction motors and wind turbine generators. MP Materials is also building a permanent magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas to create a fully domestic rare earth-to-magnet supply chain for U.S. national security and clean energy applications. | AMMO Inc. (ticker: POWW) is a U.S. ammunition manufacturer producing small caliber ammunition (handgun cartridges, rifle ammunition, and shotgun shells) for civilian and law enforcement markets. AMMO's proprietary product technology includes Streak Visual Ammunition (tracer-effect ammunition using a phosphorescent projectile that glows red or green in the direction of fire — allowing shooters to observe trajectory without the fire hazard of traditional tracers) and AMMO's anti-material and specialty rifle ammunition. AMMO also operates GunBroker.com — the largest online marketplace for firearms and related products — acquired in 2021. AMMO manufactures at facilities in Payson, Arizona and Manitowoc, Wisconsin. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Mountain Pass ore production volumes, NdPr oxide pricing (set by Chinese benchmark prices — typically $60-120/kg), progress on the refining ramp (Stage 2) producing separated oxides, and the Fort Worth magnet manufacturing buildout (Stage 3). | Investors track AMMO's ammunition shipment volumes, average selling price, GunBroker platform transaction volume (marketplace revenue is higher-margin than manufactured ammunition), and the strategic direction of the combined ammunition manufacturing and marketplace business. |
MP strengths
- Only U.S. rare earth producer — national security tailwind — MP Materials is the sole domestic source of rare earth ore; the U.S. has relied on China (which produces approximately 60%+ of global rare earth supply) for these materials; U.S. government is actively supporting domestic rare earth production through DoD contracts and Inflation Reduction Act incentives
- NdPr demand is driven by secular EV and wind turbine growth — neodymium permanent magnets are a critical enabling technology for electric motors; every EV with a permanent magnet traction motor (the majority) requires NdPr magnets; as EV adoption grows, NdPr demand grows proportionally
- Fort Worth magnet plant extends the value chain and captures downstream margin — rather than selling NdPr oxide to Chinese magnet manufacturers, MP's Fort Worth plant will produce finished NdFeB magnets for U.S. customers; GM has contracted to buy MP magnets for its Ultium EV platform; magnet margin substantially exceeds oxide margin
POWW strengths
- Streak Visual Ammunition is a proprietary product differentiation unavailable from competitors — traditional tracers use phosphorous that creates fire hazard; Streak's non-incendiary visual indicator provides target feedback without fire risk; law enforcement and shooting range markets value this feature; proprietary technology creates pricing power
- GunBroker.com marketplace business is a high-margin recurring revenue platform — GunBroker is the largest online firearms marketplace; it earns commission revenue from every firearm transaction conducted through the platform; marketplace revenue is asset-light and grows with platform transaction volume
- U.S. domestic ammunition manufacturing benefits from defense and law enforcement procurement preferences — the DoD and federal law enforcement agencies increasingly specify U.S.-manufactured ammunition for supply chain security; AMMO's U.S. manufacturing qualifies it for these contracts
Risks to watch — MP
- NdPr pricing is set primarily by Chinese benchmark prices — while MP is the only U.S. producer, the price it receives for NdPr tracks Chinese export prices; China controls NdPr supply globally and can depress prices to pressure Western competitors
- Fort Worth magnet plant is a large, complex, new manufacturing facility requiring ramp and qualification — permanent magnet manufacturing requires specific metallurgical expertise and precision; production ramps take time; qualifying magnets for specific EV platforms requires extensive testing
- Mountain Pass geology and environmental permitting create ongoing operational challenges — mining in the Mojave Desert involves ongoing environmental monitoring; any water, waste, or dust issues require regulatory response; the radioactive thorium byproduct from Mountain Pass ore requires careful handling and disposal
Risks to watch — POWW
- Civilian ammunition demand is highly cyclical with political events — gun and ammunition buying surges before elections (fear of regulatory change), during social unrest, and in response to news events; demand between surges is significantly lower; managing inventory and capacity to civilian demand cycles is very difficult
- GunBroker's marketplace revenue depends on federal and state firearms regulations — any policy that reduces legal firearm transactions reduces GunBroker's transaction volume; firearms regulation is an ongoing political variable
- Large manufacturers (Vista Outdoor, Olin/Winchester, Federal/ATK) dominate the ammunition market — AMMO competes against much larger, better-capitalized producers; competing for shelf space at Walmart, Cabela's, and Bass Pro requires significant marketing investment
Frequently asked questions
Free public comparison
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
In-Depth Reports
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.
Related comparisons
More comparisons
Browse all 1,000 comparisons