FCX vs VALE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
FCX offers copper-pure exposure tied to electrification and U.S./Indonesian assets, while VALE is a higher-yielding iron-ore giant with Chinese demand sensitivity and legacy legal overhangs. Both are cyclical commodity plays but track different metals and different macro drivers.
FCX vs VALE is a comparison of two different commodity bets: copper-driven electrification exposure versus iron-ore-driven Chinese steel demand exposure, each carrying distinct geopolitical and legal risks.
FCX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FCX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+56.40% vs +41.76%), though VALE has the better forward P/E setup (7.24x vs 18.49x for FCX). On fundamentals, VALE is growing revenue faster (6.40%), while FCX maintains the higher operating margin (33.40%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VALE (+17.38%) than for FCX (-5.76%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to copper as an electrification and EV-supply-chain metal
- Are comfortable with Indonesian regulatory and permitting risk
- Believe global decarbonization will structurally increase copper demand
- Want high dividend yield from a low-cost iron ore producer
- Are willing to underwrite Brazilian political risk and legacy litigation
- Have a view that Chinese steel demand will stabilize or recover
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.7 | 54.2 |
| AI ranki | #201 | #308 |
| Latest closei | $70.85 | $14.19 |
| 1M returni | +6.83% | +2.09% |
| 6M returni | +32.13% | +3.88% |
| 1Y returni | +56.40% | +41.76% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.71K (+57.1%) started 2025-09-17 | $15.38K (+53.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $25.41K (+154.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $29.18K (+191.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $85.17K (+751.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $166.81K (+1568.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $109.78B | $60.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.48 | 28.38 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.49 | 7.24 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.28 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.96 | 0.67 |
| Analyst targeti | $72.05 | $16.66 |
| Target upsidei | -5.76% | +17.38% |
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -7.30% | 6.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 28.10% | -43.50% |
| EPS growthi | +28.10% | -43.50% |
| FCF margini | +8.35% | +6.10% |
| Operating margini | 33.40% | 21.95% |
| Profit margini | 11.39% | 4.75% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.75% | 4.11% |
| Return on equityi | 14.75% | 4.11% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.78% | 8.23% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.41% | 159.07% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 1 yr |
| Betai | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Debt/equityi | 32.15 | 54.60 |
| Current ratioi | 2.07 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, FCX and VALE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.65), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +57.13% | +41.76% |
| CAGRi | +57.23% | +41.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.26% | 32.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.06 | 1.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.46 | 1.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.31% | 21.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.34% | 18.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.96% | 7.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.07% | 10.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.95% | 6.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.34% | 12.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +140.16% | +51.67% |
| CAGRi | +19.18% | +8.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.15% | 35.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.75 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.26% | 49.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.34% | 18.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.06% | 25.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.43% | 28.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.95% | 7.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.13% | 18.22% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +674.97% | +483.57% |
| CAGRi | +22.74% | +19.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.38% | 40.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.59% | 57.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.34% | 18.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.36% | 21.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.76% | 25.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.06% | 18.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.61% | 29.25% |
| Category | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | Vale S.A. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Materials - Iron Ore & Diversified Mining |
| Industry | Copper | Other Industrial Metals & Mining |
| Core business | Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, with major mines in Arizona, Indonesia (Grasberg), and South America. It also produces gold and molybdenum as byproducts. | Vale is a Brazilian multinational and the world's largest iron ore producer, also mining nickel, copper, and other base metals. Its iron ore feeds global steelmaking, with China as the dominant customer. |
| Investor focus | Investors track copper prices, Grasberg production volumes, Indonesian regulatory relations, and the company's leverage to electrification and grid-buildout demand. | Investors track iron ore prices, Chinese steel demand, Brazilian regulatory and tax policy, and the lingering legal liabilities from past tailings dam disasters. |
- Premier copper asset base including the world-class Grasberg mine
- Direct leverage to electrification, EV, and grid-infrastructure copper demand
- U.S.-based operations provide some geopolitical diversification
- Massive low-cost iron ore reserves with scale advantages
- Growing nickel and copper business tied to EV battery supply chains
- High dividend yield supported by strong free cash flow generation
- Indonesian government relations and export permit renewals
- Copper price volatility tied to Chinese demand and global growth
- High capital intensity of underground Grasberg expansion
- Chinese property and steel demand remains the dominant swing factor
- Ongoing litigation and remediation costs from the Brumadinho and Mariana dam failures
- Brazilian political and currency risk
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