DOW vs LYB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DOW and LYB are both highly cyclical commodity chemical producers with large dividends that can come under pressure during industry downturns. DOW has broader U.S. feedstock advantages and end-market diversification, while LYB combines petrochemicals with refining and a growing circular-plastics initiative.
DOW vs LYB is a comparison of two large, cyclical commodity chemical producers, both offering high dividend yields that investors must weigh against petrochemical industry cyclicality.
LYB holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LYB leads on both 1-year return (+44.08%) and forward P/E quality (9.84x vs 16.62x for DOW), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LYB leads on both revenue growth (19.80%) and operating margin (17.92%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DOW (+13.69%) than for LYB (+7.36%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to U.S. Gulf Coast feedstock-advantaged petrochemicals
- Value a diversified product portfolio across multiple end markets
- Can tolerate dividend and earnings cyclicality
- Want combined petrochemical and refining exposure
- Are interested in circular and recycled plastics as a long-term theme
- Prioritize free cash flow and capital return discipline
| Metric | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 28.2 | 44.5 |
| AI ranki | #2405 | #1002 |
| Latest closei | $34.18 | $66.88 |
| 1M returni | +22.20% | +14.17% |
| 3M returni | +14.35% | +10.33% |
| 6M returni | -15.77% | -12.05% |
| 1Y returni | +43.31% | +44.08% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.71K (+47.1%) started 2025-11-03 | $14.45K (+44.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $8.54K (-14.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $11.73K (+17.3%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $13.88K (+38.8%) started 2019-03-20 | $23.98K (+139.8%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $22.04B | $20.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 62.67 | 98.77 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.62 | 9.84 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.47 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.94 | 1.04 |
| Analyst targeti | $34.69 | $68.35 |
| Target upsidei | +13.69% | +7.36% |
| Metric | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.70% | 19.80% |
| Earnings growthi | -73.30% | 396.00% |
| EPS growthi | -73.30% | +396.00% |
| FCF margini | +0.58% | +3.94% |
| Operating margini | 11.59% | 17.92% |
| Profit margini | -3.13% | -1.13% |
| ROIC proxyi | -5.54% | -2.27% |
| Return on equityi | -5.54% | -2.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.59% | 4.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 700.00% | 83.29% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Debt/equityi | 111.91 | 132.76 |
| Current ratioi | 1.75 | 1.64 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.89 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, DOW and LYB have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.90), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +47.14% | +44.54% |
| CAGRi | +47.31% | +44.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.55% | 42.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.04 | 0.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.47% | 36.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.37% | 18.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.44% | 14.58% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.86% | 17.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.82% | 11.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.86% | 11.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -30.25% | -9.70% |
| CAGRi | -6.95% | -2.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.11% | 33.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | -0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.25 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.60% | 57.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 43.07% | 32.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.72% | 21.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.04% | 27.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.45% | 11.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.43% | 24.00% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -5.10% | +34.97% |
| CAGRi | -0.68% | +3.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.43% | 36.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.08 | 0.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.60% | 68.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 43.07% | 32.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.48% | 19.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 29.85% | 24.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.66% | 25.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.97% | 41.45% |
| Category | DOW | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Dow Inc. | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Chemicals | Specialty Chemicals |
| Core business | Dow is a global materials science company producing plastics, industrial intermediates, and performance chemicals used across packaging, infrastructure, and consumer care markets. | LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest plastics, chemicals, and refining companies, producing polyethylene, polypropylene, and other commodity chemicals along with refining operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors track ethylene and polyethylene pricing cycles, energy and feedstock costs, and Dow's large dividend relative to cyclical earnings. | Investors track polyolefin pricing spreads, refining margins, and LyondellBasell's capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and circular/recycled plastics investment. |
- Diversified product portfolio across packaging, infrastructure, and consumer markets
- Significant U.S. Gulf Coast feedstock cost advantage from shale gas
- Global manufacturing scale and integration
- Strong free cash flow generation and shareholder return discipline
- Diversified across petrochemicals and refining operations
- Growing investment in circular and advanced recycling technologies
- Highly cyclical earnings tied to global petrochemical demand and pricing
- Dividend payout ratio can become stretched during industry downturns
- Heavy capital intensity of petrochemical manufacturing
- Commodity chemical pricing cyclicality directly drives earnings volatility
- Refining segment adds additional cyclical and margin risk
- European operations face higher energy cost structural disadvantages
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