CAT vs DE: Caterpillar vs Deere Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Caterpillar and Deere are the two dominant US industrial equipment manufacturers — Caterpillar serving construction and mining, Deere serving agriculture and construction. Both have durable competitive positions, strong free cash flow, and growing services revenue. The key differentiator is end market: CAT's mining exposure benefits from commodity cycles, while DE's agricultural exposure depends on farm income and crop prices.
Use this CAT vs DE comparison to choose between two world-class industrial compounders with different end market drivers. Caterpillar is more exposed to infrastructure spending and mining; Deere is uniquely exposed to agricultural technology adoption as a long-term secular growth layer on top of farm equipment cycles.
CAT holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAT leads on both 1-year return (+96.07%) and forward P/E quality (24.75x vs 28.07x for DE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CAT leads on both revenue growth (24.00%) and operating margin (22.18%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAT (+21.91%) than for DE (+5.56%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want global construction and mining equipment leadership with a high-quality services revenue growth layer
- Value the dealer network breadth and aftermarket parts business as durable margin contributors
- Prefer exposure to infrastructure spending and global mining commodity cycles
- Prioritise a long dividend growth record combined with consistent buybacks as part of the total return
- Want the global agricultural equipment leader with a technology moat in Precision Agriculture
- Value autonomous and semi-autonomous farming technology as a structural long-term differentiation driver
- Are comfortable with farm income and crop price sensitivity in exchange for DE's technology premium
- Believe digital agriculture services will compound as a high-margin growth layer over the equipment cycle
| Metric | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 69.1 | 57.8 |
| AI ranki | #45 | #215 |
| Latest closei | $813.94 | $693.53 |
| 1M returni | -6.56% | +13.32% |
| 6M returni | +15.28% | +17.41% |
| 1Y returni | +96.07% | +47.71% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $19.37K (+93.7%) started 2025-09-04 | $14.6K (+46.0%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $45.38K (+353.8%) started 2021-09-07 | $20.65K (+106.5%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $153.21K (+1432.1%) started 2016-09-06 | $109.94K (+999.4%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $367.85B | $169.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 34.48 | 35.10 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.75 | 28.07 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.63 | 3.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.45 | 4.37 |
| Analyst targeti | $975.61 | $665.35 |
| Target upsidei | +21.91% | +5.56% |
| Metric | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.00% | -11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.20% | -8.50% |
| EPS growthi | +68.20% | -8.50% |
| FCF margini | +6.76% | +9.42% |
| Operating margini | 22.18% | 17.48% |
| Profit margini | 14.51% | 10.17% |
| ROIC proxyi | 56.97% | 18.24% |
| Return on equityi | 56.97% | 18.24% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.80% | 1.03% |
| Betai | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 232.78 | 376.02 |
| Current ratioi | 1.37 | 2.13 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.78 | 1.91 |
Over the past year, CAT and DE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +93.69% | +46.04% |
| CAGRi | +93.88% | +46.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.57% | 31.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.76 | 1.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.80 | 2.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.83% | 20.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.57% | 0.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.99% | 6.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.38% | 8.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.91% | 5.67% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.99% | 7.81% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +320.65% | +96.15% |
| CAGRi | +33.35% | +14.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.78% | 29.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.93 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.40 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.05% | 33.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.57% | 0.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.59% | 9.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.43% | 11.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.64% | 14.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 14.56% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1119.41% | +845.69% |
| CAGRi | +28.43% | +25.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.46% | 30.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 1.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.36% | 37.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.57% | 0.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.57% | 8.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.82% | 10.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.28% | 14.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 21.71% |
| Category | CAT | DE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Caterpillar Inc. | Deere & Company |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | World's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. Serves construction, resource (mining), and energy & transportation end markets globally. Financial Products division provides equipment financing. | World's largest manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment. Brands include John Deere (ag), and construction equipment. Precision Agriculture technology (autonomy, smart attachments, data services) is a growing high-margin layer. Financial Services provides equipment loans and leases. |
| Investor focus | Services revenue growth (aftermarket parts, digital, financing), dealer inventory normalisation, mining end market durability, and capital return via buybacks and dividends. | Precision Agriculture technology adoption (JDLink, Operations Center, See & Spray), farm income and crop price sensitivity, equipment order rates, and technology revenue durability. |
- Global market leader in construction and mining equipment with unmatched dealer network breadth
- Services revenue (aftermarket, parts, digital) is growing and higher-margin than equipment — improving earnings quality
- Strong free cash flow generation consistently returned to shareholders via buybacks and a 30+ year dividend growth record
- Market-leading Precision Agriculture technology gives Deere a software and data moat on top of its hardware base
- Autonomous and semi-autonomous farming technology (AutoPath, See & Spray) creates a differentiated technology layer
- Equipment installed base of millions of machines globally creates an enormous opportunity for aftermarket parts and technology upgrades
- Construction and mining equipment demand is cyclical — a slowdown in infrastructure or commodity markets impacts orders
- Dealer inventory de-stocking has been a headwind; when inventory is worked down, orders recover but timing is uncertain
- China exposure is an ongoing risk given construction market weakness and geopolitical considerations
- Farm income is highly sensitive to crop prices — corn, soybean, and wheat price declines reduce farmer willingness to invest in new equipment
- Large equipment order book has normalised from post-pandemic highs — near-term orders may be soft as dealer lots refill
- Precision Agriculture adoption, while strategically important, is still a relatively small part of overall earnings
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