CAT vs OSK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CAT (Caterpillar) and OSK (Oshkosh) are both U.S. industrial manufacturers of heavy vehicles but serving different end markets — Caterpillar is the global heavy construction and mining equipment giant with a dominant dealer network and commodity cycle exposure, while Oshkosh is a specialty vehicle company with U.S. defense vehicle contracts, aerial work platform leadership through JLG, and purpose-built vehicles for fire/emergency and refuse collection. Caterpillar is global scale construction; Oshkosh is specialty mission vehicles.
CAT vs OSK is global heavy equipment market leader with cyclical leverage (Caterpillar's unmatched construction and mining equipment dominance, global dealer network, and infrastructure/energy transition tailwinds offset by commodity and construction cycle volatility) versus specialty vehicle platform with long-term government programs (Oshkosh's JLTV defense vehicle contract, USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program, and JLG aerial platform leadership providing a mix of cyclical access equipment and secular government contract revenue) — global equipment giant versus specialty vehicle portfolio.
CAT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+74.88% vs +2.80%), though OSK has the better forward P/E setup (10.92x vs 24.75x for CAT). CAT leads on both revenue growth (24.00%) and operating margin (22.18%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAT (+21.91%) than for OSK (+10.58%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the premier global construction and mining equipment company with an unmatched dealer network and services revenue base that provides earnings resilience through equipment cycles
- Value Caterpillar's exposure to infrastructure investment (government construction programs), mining (commodity supercycle demand for copper, lithium), and energy generation as multiple long-cycle demand drivers
- Prefer Caterpillar's scale, dividend history, and capital return program as a quality industrial holding with global market leadership and brand that commands premium pricing from customers who depend on uptime
- Want specialty vehicle exposure with long-term U.S. government contract revenue — Oshkosh's JLTV and NGDV programs provide multi-year visibility into defense and postal delivery vehicle revenue
- Value JLG's aerial work platform leadership as providing strong cyclical earnings leverage when commercial construction activity recovers, alongside more stable defense and fire/emergency segments
- See Oshkosh's NGDV USPS delivery vehicle program as a transformational multi-decade contract providing unprecedented scale for Oshkosh's commercial vehicle business
| Metric | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 68.2 | 47.0 |
| AI ranki | #48 | #618 |
| Latest closei | $821.58 | $132.75 |
| 1M returni | -0.04% | -15.70% |
| 6M returni | +18.14% | -5.39% |
| 1Y returni | +74.88% | +2.80% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.72K (+77.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.41K (+4.1%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $47.69K (+376.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $12.45K (+24.5%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $154.1K (+1441.0%) started 2016-09-26 | $25.32K (+153.2%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $367.85B | $9.44B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 34.48 | 17.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.75 | 10.92 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.63 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.45 | 0.93 |
| Analyst targeti | $975.61 | $169.07 |
| Target upsidei | +21.91% | +10.58% |
| Metric | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.00% | 6.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.20% | -7.60% |
| EPS growthi | +68.20% | -7.60% |
| FCF margini | +6.76% | +6.92% |
| Operating margini | 22.18% | 8.40% |
| Profit margini | 14.51% | 5.24% |
| ROIC proxyi | 56.97% | 12.39% |
| Return on equityi | 56.97% | 12.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.80% | 1.54% |
| Payout ratioi | 26.01% | 24.74% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| Debt/equityi | 232.78 | 24.36 |
| Current ratioi | 1.37 | 1.72 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.78 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, CAT and OSK have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +77.17% | +4.13% |
| CAGRi | +77.32% | +4.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.79% | 41.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.53 | 0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.41 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.83% | 33.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 25.40% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.35% | 12.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.01% | 15.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.91% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.99% | 20.04% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +342.07% | +24.48% |
| CAGRi | +34.66% | +4.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.75% | 34.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.96 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.05% | 43.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 25.40% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.76% | 18.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.68% | 21.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.64% | 10.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 20.04% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1126.52% | +153.24% |
| CAGRi | +28.50% | +9.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.47% | 35.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.36% | 49.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 25.40% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.69% | 19.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.93% | 22.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.28% | 10.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 20.04% |
| Category | CAT | OSK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Caterpillar Inc. | Oshkosh Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | Caterpillar is the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment — producing excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders, motor graders, backhoe loaders, articulated dump trucks, and mining haul trucks used in construction, quarrying, mining, and earth-moving globally. Caterpillar also manufactures diesel and gas engines, turbines for oil and gas, and electric power generators. Caterpillar's global dealer network (exclusive independent dealers in every major market) is a critical competitive asset. | Oshkosh Corporation manufactures specialty vehicles for demanding applications across four segments: Defense (JLTV — Joint Light Tactical Vehicles, NGDV — Next Generation Delivery Vehicles for USPS, military trucks); Access Equipment (JLG aerial work platforms — scissor lifts, boom lifts, telehandlers used in construction); Fire & Emergency (Pierce fire trucks, airport firefighting vehicles); and Commercial (McNeilus and London refuse collection trucks, concrete mixers). Oshkosh's vehicles are purpose-built for specific mission requirements. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Caterpillar's machinery and energy & transportation segment revenue, equipment orders and backlog, dealer inventory levels, services revenue (parts and service through dealer network), geographic revenue mix (North America, EAME, Asia-Pacific, Latin America), and the commodity cycle's impact on mining equipment demand. | Investors track Oshkosh's defense contract bookings (JLTV and NGDV ramp), access equipment cycle (tied to non-residential construction), fire and emergency demand, and commercial segment order volume. The NGDV USPS delivery vehicle contract (50,000-150,000 vehicles over 10 years) is a significant long-term revenue driver. |
- Dominant global brand and dealer network create unmatched customer support — Caterpillar's exclusive global dealer network can provide parts and service anywhere in the world within 24 hours; this service capability is critical for mining and construction customers where machine downtime costs thousands of dollars per hour
- Services and parts revenue provides recurring income through the equipment cycle — Caterpillar Financial Products (equipment financing), Cat parts (aftermarket parts for the installed equipment base), and dealer services generate significant recurring revenue that is less cyclical than new equipment sales
- Exposure to infrastructure investment and energy transition tailwinds — construction spending on roads, bridges, and data centers drives excavator and compactor demand; mining copper, lithium, and rare earth minerals for the energy transition requires more large mining trucks
- U.S. defense vehicle leadership with JLTV and NGDV programs — Oshkosh won the Army's JLTV contract to replace the Humvee fleet (over 17,000 vehicles in initial contract) and the USPS's massive Next Generation Delivery Vehicle contract, providing multi-billion dollar long-term government contract revenue
- JLG access equipment brand leadership in aerial work platforms — JLG's scissor lifts and boom lifts are market-leading products used in commercial construction, maintenance, and industrial applications globally; rental companies (United Rentals, Sunbelt) are major customers
- Purpose-built specialty vehicles command premium pricing — Oshkosh's vehicles are engineered for specific performance requirements (military survivability, fire suppression, heavy-duty refuse) that justify premium prices relative to general-purpose truck modifications
- Equipment cycle cyclicality — construction and mining equipment is highly cyclical; when commodity prices fall, miners defer new equipment purchases; when construction spending slows, contractor equipment orders decline; Caterpillar's revenue can swing 15-25% through cycles
- China market exposure and competition — China is a large construction equipment market where local OEMs (XCMG, Sany, LGMG) have been gaining share in mid-range equipment; Caterpillar's China revenue has been under pressure
- Electrification transition challenges for large equipment — electrifying large mining haul trucks (300+ ton capacity) and excavators is technically very challenging due to battery energy density; Caterpillar must develop alternative powertrain strategies (hydrogen, battery-electric) while managing the transition
- Access equipment cycle tied to non-residential construction spending — JLG's equipment demand correlates with commercial construction activity; when construction slows, rental companies defer fleet refreshment spending, impacting JLG orders
- NGDV production ramp execution — Oshkosh's new USPS delivery vehicle factory in South Carolina must execute a complex production ramp; delivery vehicle technology (electric powertrain) and manufacturing scaling represent execution risk
- Defense budget uncertainty — U.S. and NATO defense spending levels affect JLTV and military truck program volumes; budget debates and continuing resolutions can delay procurement
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