CAT vs CMI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Caterpillar and Cummins both serve heavy equipment end markets, but Caterpillar manufactures complete construction and mining machines under its own iconic brand, while Cummins supplies engines and powertrain components used across trucks, construction equipment, and industrial applications from multiple manufacturers.
Caterpillar offers exposure to complete heavy equipment manufacturing with a dominant global brand and growing services revenue, while Cummins offers exposure to diversified engine and powertrain technology sold across multiple equipment and vehicle categories. Consider whether you prefer Caterpillar's equipment brand dominance or Cummins' engine technology diversification.
CMI holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMI leads on both 1-year return (+25.04%) and forward P/E quality (16.37x vs 24.75x for CAT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CAT leads on both revenue growth (24.00%) and operating margin (22.18%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMI (+34.02%) than for CAT (+21.91%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a dominant global construction and mining equipment manufacturer
- Value growing aftermarket parts and services revenue as a stabilizing complement to equipment sales
- Believe international infrastructure and mining investment supports long-term demand
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to construction activity and commodity prices
- Want diversified exposure to engines and components across trucking, construction, and industrial end markets
- Believe investment in hydrogen fuel cell and electric powertrain technology can pay off over the long term
- Value a long-standing reputation for engine reliability and customer loyalty
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to freight and industrial capital spending
| Metric | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 65.0 | 55.4 |
| AI ranki | #77 | #256 |
| Latest closei | $647.39 | $518.03 |
| 1M returni | -21.68% | -0.64% |
| 3M returni | -19.99% | -18.16% |
| 6M returni | -27.27% | -22.80% |
| 1Y returni | +23.44% | +25.04% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.06K (+10.6%) started 2025-10-29 | $11.74K (+17.4%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $36.18K (+261.8%) started 2021-11-01 | $25.35K (+153.5%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $117.52K (+1075.2%) started 2016-10-31 | $65.82K (+558.2%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $367.85B | $77.76B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 34.48 | 28.91 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.75 | 16.37 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.63 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.45 | 2.40 |
| Analyst targeti | $975.61 | $757.02 |
| Target upsidei | +21.91% | +34.02% |
| Metric | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.00% | 9.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.20% | 4.70% |
| EPS growthi | +68.20% | +4.70% |
| FCF margini | +6.76% | +6.42% |
| Operating margini | 22.18% | 11.90% |
| Profit margini | 14.51% | 7.82% |
| ROIC proxyi | 56.97% | 21.11% |
| Return on equityi | 56.97% | 21.11% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.80% | 1.56% |
| Payout ratioi | 24.18% | 40.88% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| Debt/equityi | 232.78 | 59.59 |
| Current ratioi | 1.37 | 1.73 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.78 | 0.98 |
Over the past year, CAT and CMI have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.78), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +10.57% | +17.40% |
| CAGRi | +10.59% | +17.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.99% | 36.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.21% | 29.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.21% | 28.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.90% | 8.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.10% | 13.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.25% | 10.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.99% | 10.85% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +237.35% | +130.89% |
| CAGRi | +27.58% | +18.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.25% | 28.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.78 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.16 | 0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.21% | 30.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.21% | 28.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.26% | 8.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.33% | 11.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.25% | 10.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 15.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +845.51% | +409.35% |
| CAGRi | +25.21% | +17.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.75% | 28.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.73 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.06 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.36% | 44.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.21% | 28.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.93% | 10.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.21% | 13.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.28% | 11.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 21.83% |
| Category | CAT | CMI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Caterpillar Inc. | Cummins Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Core business | A global manufacturer of construction, mining, and energy equipment, including a broad line of heavy machinery, engines, and related aftermarket services, serving customers across infrastructure, resource extraction, and energy end markets worldwide. | A global manufacturer of diesel and alternative fuel engines, power generation equipment, and related components used in trucks, construction equipment, and industrial applications, while investing in hydrogen fuel cell and battery-electric powertrain technology. |
| Investor focus | Construction and mining equipment order trends, aftermarket parts and services revenue growth, and international sales mix across developed and emerging markets. | Heavy-duty truck engine order trends, progress on alternative fuel and electrification technology investment, and margin trends across its diversified engine and components business. |
- Dominant global position in construction and mining equipment supports pricing power and dealer network strength
- Growing aftermarket parts and services revenue provides a more stable, higher-margin complement to cyclical equipment sales
- Broad international footprint across infrastructure, mining, and energy end markets provides geographic diversification
- Diversified engine and components business serves trucks, construction, marine, and industrial customers, reducing dependence on any single end market
- Long-standing reputation for engine reliability and performance supports strong customer loyalty among equipment manufacturers
- Ongoing investment in hydrogen fuel cell and battery-electric powertrain technology positions it for a range of future propulsion outcomes
- Equipment sales are highly cyclical, tied to construction activity, commodity prices, and global infrastructure investment cycles
- Large exposure to mining equipment demand ties results partly to volatile commodity price cycles
- Faces competition from other global heavy equipment manufacturers across construction and mining segments
- Engine and equipment demand is highly cyclical, tied closely to freight volumes and construction and industrial capital spending
- Electrification and alternative fuel investments require significant capital outlay before generating meaningful returns
- Faces competition from equipment manufacturers increasingly developing their own proprietary engines in-house
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