CMI vs PCAR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Cummins and PACCAR both serve the heavy-duty trucking industry, but Cummins manufactures engines and components sold to multiple truck makers and other industrial customers, while PACCAR builds complete trucks under its own well-known brands alongside a supporting finance and parts business.
Cummins offers exposure to diversified engine and powertrain technology sold across multiple truck and industrial customers, while PACCAR offers exposure to complete truck manufacturing under established brands with diversified parts and financing revenue. Consider whether you prefer Cummins' engine technology diversification or PACCAR's full-vehicle brand strength.
CMI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMI leads on both 1-year return (+25.04%) and forward P/E quality (16.37x vs 17.56x for PCAR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CMI is growing revenue faster (9.40%), while PCAR maintains the higher operating margin (12.02%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMI (+34.02%) than for PCAR (+12.52%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure to engines and components across trucking, construction, and industrial end markets
- Believe investment in hydrogen fuel cell and electric powertrain technology can pay off over the long term
- Value a long-standing reputation for engine reliability and customer loyalty
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to freight volumes and equipment capital spending
- Want exposure to complete heavy-duty truck manufacturing under well-established brands
- Value diversified revenue from truck sales, aftermarket parts, and financial services
- Believe global manufacturing scale across North America and Europe supports resilience
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to freight demand and trucking industry conditions
| Metric | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.4 | 52.5 |
| AI ranki | #256 | #358 |
| Latest closei | $518.03 | $102.29 |
| 1M returni | -0.64% | -8.51% |
| 3M returni | -18.16% | -23.53% |
| 6M returni | -22.80% | -13.90% |
| 1Y returni | +25.04% | +3.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.74K (+17.4%) started 2025-10-29 | $10.42K (+4.2%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $25.35K (+153.5%) started 2021-11-01 | $23.26K (+132.6%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $65.82K (+558.2%) started 2016-10-31 | $57.82K (+478.2%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.76B | $65.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.91 | 26.39 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.37 | 17.56 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.52 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.40 | 2.59 |
| Analyst targeti | $757.02 | $141.03 |
| Target upsidei | +34.02% | +12.52% |
| Metric | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.40% | 0.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 4.70% | 4.20% |
| EPS growthi | +4.70% | +4.20% |
| FCF margini | +6.42% | +6.99% |
| Operating margini | 11.90% | 12.02% |
| Profit margini | 7.82% | 9.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | 21.11% | 12.76% |
| Return on equityi | 21.11% | 12.76% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.56% | 1.12% |
| Payout ratioi | 40.88% | 25.95% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.25 | 0.98 |
| Debt/equityi | 59.59 | 72.91 |
| Current ratioi | 1.73 | 5.52 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.98 | 4.89 |
Over the past year, CMI and PCAR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +17.40% | +4.15% |
| CAGRi | +17.42% | +4.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.24% | 26.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.72 | 0.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.00% | 25.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.80% | 25.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.96% | 7.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.03% | 9.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.73% | 5.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.85% | 10.09% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +130.89% | +96.83% |
| CAGRi | +18.25% | +14.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.98% | 26.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.48% | 27.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.80% | 25.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.51% | 9.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.08% | 11.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.73% | 10.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.30% | 12.10% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +409.35% | +290.27% |
| CAGRi | +17.69% | +14.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.58% | 26.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.82 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.05% | 37.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.80% | 25.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.43% | 9.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.55% | 11.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.78% | 10.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.83% | 19.70% |
| Category | CMI | PCAR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Cummins Inc. | PACCAR Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | A global manufacturer of diesel and alternative fuel engines, power generation equipment, and related components used in trucks, construction equipment, and industrial applications, while investing in hydrogen fuel cell and battery-electric powertrain technology. | A global manufacturer of heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands, alongside a finance subsidiary and parts business, serving trucking fleets and owner-operators across North America and international markets. |
| Investor focus | Heavy-duty truck engine order trends, progress on alternative fuel and electrification technology investment, and margin trends across its diversified engine and components business. | Heavy-duty truck order backlog and delivery trends, aftermarket parts revenue growth, and progress on electrification and connected vehicle technology across its truck lineup. |
- Diversified engine and components business serves trucks, construction, marine, and industrial customers, reducing dependence on any single end market
- Long-standing reputation for engine reliability and performance supports strong customer loyalty among truck and equipment manufacturers
- Ongoing investment in hydrogen fuel cell and battery-electric powertrain technology positions it for a range of future propulsion outcomes
- Well-established truck brands with strong reputations for quality and reliability support pricing power and customer loyalty
- Diversified revenue streams including truck sales, aftermarket parts, and financial services provide more stable cash flow than truck sales alone
- Global manufacturing footprint spanning North America and Europe provides geographic diversification within the trucking market
- Heavy-duty truck engine demand is highly cyclical, tied closely to freight volumes and trucking industry capital spending
- Electrification and alternative fuel investments require significant capital outlay before generating meaningful returns
- Faces competition from truck manufacturers increasingly developing their own proprietary engines in-house
- Truck order volumes are highly cyclical, closely tied to freight demand, trucking industry profitability, and interest rate conditions
- Faces increasing competition from other truck manufacturers and, potentially, new electric truck entrants
- Transition toward electrified and alternative fuel trucks requires sustained capital investment and market adoption to succeed
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