WELL vs VTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Welltower and Ventas are the two largest healthcare REITs and both are primary beneficiaries of the senior housing occupancy recovery driven by aging demographics. Welltower is more concentrated in senior housing and has executed the more impressive SHOP recovery; Ventas offers additional diversification through life science and outpatient medical properties. Both trade at premiums to smaller healthcare REITs.
Welltower is the higher-conviction senior housing recovery play with stronger SHOP execution; Ventas offers broader healthcare real estate diversification including life science — investors should assess which property mix better aligns with their view on senior housing and life science trends.
WELL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WELL leads on both 1-year return (+37.43%) and forward P/E quality (74.86x vs 100.34x for VTR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. WELL leads on both revenue growth (39.10%) and operating margin (16.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +7.84% for WELL and +9.42% for VTR.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the purest senior housing recovery play with the strongest SHOP NOI growth track record
- value Welltower's active portfolio curation strategy improving operator and market quality
- believe aging demographics will drive senior housing demand for decades
- prefer a more concentrated healthcare real estate focus vs. Ventas's broader diversification
- want healthcare REIT exposure diversified across senior housing, life science, and MOBs
- value life science real estate as a high-demand academic and biotech research property type
- prefer broader property type diversification to reduce single-sector concentration risk
- are comfortable with life science supply risk in major markets in exchange for the additional diversification
| Metric | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.7 | 43.0 |
| AI ranki | #287 | #896 |
| Latest closei | $228.87 | $86.69 |
| 1M returni | -2.91% | -5.62% |
| 6M returni | +11.05% | +1.33% |
| 1Y returni | +37.43% | +27.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.74K (+37.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.75K (+27.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $32.81K (+228.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $20.24K (+102.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $64.82K (+548.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $29.05K (+190.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $171.55B | $47.09B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 106.28 | 166.93 |
| Forward P/Ei | 74.86 | 100.34 |
| Price/Salesi | 11.81 | 5.68 |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.93 | 9.41 |
| Analyst targeti | $256.73 | $100.45 |
| Target upsidei | +7.84% | +9.42% |
| Metric | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 39.10% | 21.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 35.60% | -6.70% |
| EPS growthi | +35.60% | -6.70% |
| FCF margini | +21.59% | +23.16% |
| Operating margini | 16.56% | 14.81% |
| Profit margini | 12.15% | 4.09% |
| ROIC proxyi | 3.84% | 2.01% |
| Return on equityi | 3.84% | 2.01% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.43% | 2.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 132.74% | 363.64% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 41.38 | 84.93 |
| Current ratioi | 1.32 | 0.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.95 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, WELL and VTR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +37.43% | +27.54% |
| CAGRi | +37.46% | +27.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.82% | 22.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.32 | 1.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.93 | 1.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.61% | 13.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.20% | 13.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.42% | 3.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.74% | 5.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.93% | 5.94% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.44% | 10.23% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +195.19% | +75.49% |
| CAGRi | +24.20% | +11.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.81% | 25.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.78% | 41.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.20% | 13.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.40% | 12.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.51% | 16.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.38% | 6.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.27% | 14.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +337.54% | +84.28% |
| CAGRi | +15.91% | +6.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.96% | 34.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.33% | 76.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.20% | 13.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.62% | 17.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.70% | 22.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.40% | 28.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.19% | 55.30% |
| Category | WELL | VTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Welltower Inc. | Ventas, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Healthcare Facilities | REIT - Healthcare Facilities |
| Core business | Welltower is the largest healthcare REIT by market cap, with a portfolio of senior housing (Seniors Housing Operating — SHOP), outpatient medical buildings, and long-term and post-acute care facilities. Its SHOP portfolio, where Welltower receives operating revenues rather than fixed rent, has seen dramatic occupancy recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic trough. Welltower is unique in its proactive portfolio curation — frequently recycling capital from lower-quality operators into premium operators and markets. | Ventas is a diversified healthcare REIT with senior housing, outpatient medical buildings (MOBs), and life science research facilities. Its SHOP portfolio has been recovering alongside Welltower's, though the portfolio mix is somewhat different — Ventas has greater life science exposure through Ardent Health and university-affiliated research properties. The life science segment adds a differentiated growth vector beyond senior housing. |
| Investor focus | Investors track SHOP same-store net operating income (NOI) growth, senior housing occupancy rates, operator quality and retention, outpatient medical building occupancy, and AFFO per share growth as the recovery compounds. | Investors track SHOP occupancy and same-store NOI growth, life science and university-based research property occupancy, outpatient medical building renewal rates, and AFFO per share trajectory. |
- SHOP portfolio is experiencing one of the longest and most durable occupancy recovery cycles in the sector
- Premium operator relationships (Sunrise, Cogir, Sunrise) drive above-market NOI growth
- Proactive portfolio management recycling into higher-quality assets has consistently improved earnings quality
- Life science real estate exposure provides a differentiated, high-demand property type
- Diverse healthcare property types reduce dependency on any single end market
- University-affiliated research buildings provide stable, credit-strong tenants
- SHOP model carries operating risk — Welltower shares in operating losses, not just rent shortfalls
- Labor cost inflation in senior housing operations is a persistent margin pressure
- Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital for acquisitions and refinancing
- Life science real estate supply growth in key markets (Boston, San Francisco) pressures occupancy
- SHOP recovery pace slightly behind Welltower due to operator and market mix differences
- Capital allocation in a higher rate environment requires disciplined underwriting
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