AMGN vs LLY: Amgen vs Eli Lilly Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly is the highest-conviction GLP-1 obesity drug play in the market, with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating extraordinary revenue growth; Amgen is a larger, more diversified biotech at a much lower valuation with MariTide as a potential obesity market entry option. LLY has current execution momentum; AMGN offers a cheaper entry point with obesity optionality if MariTide data is positive.
Use this AMGN vs LLY comparison to choose between the dominant obesity drug franchise and a diversified biotech with obesity optionality. Lilly's valuation reflects its dominant GLP-1 position; Amgen's valuation reflects its diversified legacy portfolio with MariTide as a speculative upside call option on the same obesity market.
LLY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+52.73% vs +21.53%), though AMGN has the better forward P/E setup (15.62x vs 26.26x for LLY). LLY leads on both revenue growth (55.50%) and operating margin (49.39%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+7.74%) than for AMGN (-2.64%).
- →Want exposure to a diversified large-cap biotech at a much lower valuation than LLY
- →Value Amgen's biosimilar manufacturing leadership as a growing and durable revenue stream
- →See MariTide as a speculative call option on obesity market entry at a lower cost of entry than LLY
- →Prefer a higher dividend yield from a profitable, established biotech franchise
- →Want the dominant GLP-1 obesity franchise with the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products in history
- →Believe the global obesity epidemic represents a multi-decade pharmaceutical growth market worth owning at a premium
- →Value Mounjaro/Zepbound's manufacturing ramp as the primary near-term catalyst for revenue acceleration
- →Are comfortable with a premium valuation in exchange for the highest-conviction obesity drug exposure available
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 47.8 | 74.8 |
| AI rank | #617 | #20 |
| Latest close | $371.50 | $1,185.87 |
| 1M return | +7.06% | +7.12% |
| 6M return | +8.12% | +9.95% |
| 1Y return | +21.53% | +52.73% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2025-07-23 | $14.84K (+48.4%) started 2025-07-23 |
| 5Y ago | $19.73K (+97.3%) started 2021-07-26 | $52.87K (+428.7%) started 2021-07-26 |
| 10Y ago | $39.63K (+296.3%) started 2016-07-25 | $199.37K (+1893.7%) started 2016-07-25 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $197.69B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/E | 25.51 | 41.84 |
| Forward P/E | 15.62 | 26.26 |
| Price/Sales | 4.57 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenue | 6.53 | 15.08 |
| Analyst target | $356.62 | $1,270.37 |
| Target upside | -2.64% | +7.74% |
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 5.80% | 55.50% |
| Earnings growth | 4.40% | 169.90% |
| EPS growth | +4.40% | +169.90% |
| FCF margin | +19.98% | +12.67% |
| Operating margin | 33.80% | 49.39% |
| Profit margin | 20.96% | 34.99% |
| ROIC proxy | 101.32% | 107.46% |
| Return on equity | 101.32% | 107.46% |
| Dividend yield | 2.75% | 0.59% |
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equity | 623.75 | 139.01 |
| Current ratio | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Quick ratio | 0.85 | 0.72 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +20.14% | +48.44% |
| CAGR | +20.17% | +48.52% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.65 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.57% | 23.31% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.14% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.70% | 17.93% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +72.25% | +407.56% |
| CAGR | +11.51% | +38.46% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.39 | 1.03 | |
| Max drawdown | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.14% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.81% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +191.76% | +1588.01% |
| CAGR | +11.31% | +32.68% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdown | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.58% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.79% | 17.93% |
| Category | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amgen Inc. | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Large-cap biotech with a diversified portfolio including Enbrel, Otezla, Prolia, EVENITY, Repatha, and Lumakras. Acquired Horizon Therapeutics in 2023 (rare disease). Developing MariTide (GLP-1/GIP obesity treatment) as a potential entry into the obesity market. | One of the world's most valuable pharmaceutical companies. GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro (tirzepatide, diabetes) and Zepbound (tirzepatide, obesity) are the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products ever launched. Also markets Verzenio (breast cancer), Jardiance (diabetes), and Taltz (immunology). Developing next-generation obesity drugs (oral GLP-1, retatrutide). |
| Investor focus | MariTide obesity drug clinical data and commercial potential, Horizon rare disease portfolio integration, biosimilar revenue ramp, and dividend growth. | Mounjaro and Zepbound demand relative to supply capacity, obesity pipeline (orforglipron oral GLP-1, retatrutide), international GLP-1 expansion, and manufacturing ramp to meet demand. |
- →Large, diversified biologics portfolio with multiple products in stable therapeutic categories
- →MariTide obesity drug candidate — if Phase 3 data confirms Phase 2 results, represents a massive new market opportunity
- →Amgen is the world's leading biosimilar manufacturer — a growing revenue stream from generic versions of biologics
- →Mounjaro/Zepbound are among the most commercially successful drug launches in pharmaceutical history
- →Obesity drug pipeline (oral GLP-1, retatrutide) extends the franchise beyond tirzepatide
- →Premium valuation is partially justified by the sheer scale of the global obesity epidemic as the addressable market
- →Core portfolio faces biosimilar competition on key drugs like Enbrel and Prolia over time
- →MariTide is still in clinical development — obesity market entry is not guaranteed and execution risk is high
- →Horizon acquisition added significant debt, and the rare disease portfolio is smaller-scale than Amgen's traditional blockbusters
- →Manufacturing capacity has been supply-constrained — failure to expand production limits revenue realisation
- →Novo Nordisk (semaglutide) is the primary competitor — losing market share to Ozempic/Wegovy would be significant
- →Premium valuation prices in a significant portion of the long-term obesity opportunity — disappointment is costly
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.