LIVE
AMGN
Amgen Inc. · Biotechnology
$345.73
+4.23% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
$1,149.15
+21.16% this month
AI Score
48.3vs76.5
LLY ↑1Y Return
+19.08%vs+49.26%
LLY ↑Forward P/E
14.89xvs25.43x
AMGN ↑Target Upside
+0.76%vs+7.40%
LLY ↑Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
AMGN
1
LLY
4
Metrics last refreshed: 6/9/2026
Quick take
AMGN vs LLY: Amgen vs Eli Lilly Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly is the highest-conviction GLP-1 obesity drug play in the market, with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating extraordinary revenue growth; Amgen is a larger, more diversified biotech at a much lower valuation with MariTide as a potential obesity market entry option. LLY has current execution momentum; AMGN offers a cheaper entry point with obesity optionality if MariTide data is positive.
Use this AMGN vs LLY comparison to choose between the dominant obesity drug franchise and a diversified biotech with obesity optionality. Lilly's valuation reflects its dominant GLP-1 position; Amgen's valuation reflects its diversified legacy portfolio with MariTide as a speculative upside call option on the same obesity market.
Live analysis · updated 6/9/2026
LLY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+49.26% vs +19.08%), though AMGN trades at the lower forward P/E (14.89x vs 25.43x). LLY leads on both revenue growth (55.50%) and operating margin (49.39%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+7.40%) than for AMGN (+0.76%).
Comparison scoreboard
LLY LEADS 4/5AI Score
AMGN 48.3
LLY ✓76.5
1Y Return
AMGN +19.08%
LLY ✓+49.26%
Fwd P/E
AMGN ✓14.89
LLY 25.43
Target Up.
AMGN +0.76%
LLY ✓+7.40%
Op. Margin
AMGN 33.80%
LLY ✓49.39%
Normalized 1Y performance
AMGN
LLY
Recent returns
AMGN
LLY
Analyst price targets & sentiment
AMGN · 28 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$185.00
analyst high$400.00
analyst mean$352.23
current price$345.73
+0.8% upside to analyst mean
LLY · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$650.00
analyst mean$1,215.10
current price$1,149.15
+7.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
AMGN may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to a diversified large-cap biotech at a much lower valuation than LLY
- →Value Amgen's biosimilar manufacturing leadership as a growing and durable revenue stream
- →See MariTide as a speculative call option on obesity market entry at a lower cost of entry than LLY
- →Prefer a higher dividend yield from a profitable, established biotech franchise
LLY may suit investors who:
- →Want the dominant GLP-1 obesity franchise with the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products in history
- →Believe the global obesity epidemic represents a multi-decade pharmaceutical growth market worth owning at a premium
- →Value Mounjaro/Zepbound's manufacturing ramp as the primary near-term catalyst for revenue acceleration
- →Are comfortable with a premium valuation in exchange for the highest-conviction obesity drug exposure available
Performance & AI score
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 48.3 | 76.5 |
| AI rank | #571 | #24 |
| Latest close | $345.73 | $1,149.15 |
| 1M return | +4.23% | +21.16% |
| 6M return | +4.80% | +13.74% |
| 1Y return | +19.08% | +49.26% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.92K (+19.2%) started 2025-06-09 | $14.85K (+48.5%) started 2025-06-09 |
| 5Y ago | $18.79K (+87.9%) started 2021-06-09 | $55.13K (+451.3%) started 2021-06-09 |
| 10Y ago | $39.18K (+291.8%) started 2016-06-09 | $212.79K (+2027.9%) started 2016-06-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $188.67B | $1.01T |
| Trailing P/E | 24.33 | 40.16 |
| Forward P/E | 14.89 | 25.43 |
| Price/Sales | 4.57 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenue | 6.29 | 14.49 |
| Analyst target | $352.23 | $1,215.10 |
| Target upside | +0.76% | +7.40% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 5.80% | 55.50% |
| Earnings growth | 4.40% | 169.90% |
| EPS growth | +4.40% | +169.90% |
| FCF margin | +19.98% | +12.67% |
| Operating margin | 33.80% | 49.39% |
| Profit margin | 20.96% | 34.99% |
| ROIC proxy | 101.32% | 107.46% |
| Return on equity | 101.32% | 107.46% |
| Dividend yield | 2.88% | 0.61% |
| Beta | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| Debt/equity | 623.75 | 139.01 |
| Current ratio | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Quick ratio | 0.85 | 0.72 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
AMGN max drawdown16.57%
LLY max drawdown23.64%
AMGN max wkly drop8.70%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
5Y risk snapshot
AMGN max drawdown24.86%
LLY max drawdown34.48%
AMGN max wkly drop12.81%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
10Y risk snapshot
AMGN max drawdown24.86%
LLY max drawdown34.48%
AMGN max wkly drop15.79%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +19.23% | +48.52% |
| CAGR | +19.31% | +48.77% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.62 | 1.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.57% | 23.64% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.84% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.70% | 17.93% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +64.03% | +429.29% |
| CAGR | +10.41% | +39.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.35 | 1.05 | |
| Max drawdown | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.14% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.81% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +188.46% | +1701.67% |
| CAGR | +11.18% | +33.54% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdown | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.58% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.79% | 17.93% |
Business comparison
| Category | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amgen Inc. | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Large-cap biotech with a diversified portfolio including Enbrel, Otezla, Prolia, EVENITY, Repatha, and Lumakras. Acquired Horizon Therapeutics in 2023 (rare disease). Developing MariTide (GLP-1/GIP obesity treatment) as a potential entry into the obesity market. | One of the world's most valuable pharmaceutical companies. GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro (tirzepatide, diabetes) and Zepbound (tirzepatide, obesity) are the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products ever launched. Also markets Verzenio (breast cancer), Jardiance (diabetes), and Taltz (immunology). Developing next-generation obesity drugs (oral GLP-1, retatrutide). |
| Investor focus | MariTide obesity drug clinical data and commercial potential, Horizon rare disease portfolio integration, biosimilar revenue ramp, and dividend growth. | Mounjaro and Zepbound demand relative to supply capacity, obesity pipeline (orforglipron oral GLP-1, retatrutide), international GLP-1 expansion, and manufacturing ramp to meet demand. |
AMGN strengths
- →Large, diversified biologics portfolio with multiple products in stable therapeutic categories
- →MariTide obesity drug candidate — if Phase 3 data confirms Phase 2 results, represents a massive new market opportunity
- →Amgen is the world's leading biosimilar manufacturer — a growing revenue stream from generic versions of biologics
LLY strengths
- →Mounjaro/Zepbound are among the most commercially successful drug launches in pharmaceutical history
- →Obesity drug pipeline (oral GLP-1, retatrutide) extends the franchise beyond tirzepatide
- →Premium valuation is partially justified by the sheer scale of the global obesity epidemic as the addressable market
Risks to watch — AMGN
- →Core portfolio faces biosimilar competition on key drugs like Enbrel and Prolia over time
- →MariTide is still in clinical development — obesity market entry is not guaranteed and execution risk is high
- →Horizon acquisition added significant debt, and the rare disease portfolio is smaller-scale than Amgen's traditional blockbusters
Risks to watch — LLY
- →Manufacturing capacity has been supply-constrained — failure to expand production limits revenue realisation
- →Novo Nordisk (semaglutide) is the primary competitor — losing market share to Ozempic/Wegovy would be significant
- →Premium valuation prices in a significant portion of the long-term obesity opportunity — disappointment is costly
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