AMGN vs LLY: Amgen vs Eli Lilly Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly is the highest-conviction GLP-1 obesity drug play in the market, with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating extraordinary revenue growth; Amgen is a larger, more diversified biotech at a much lower valuation with MariTide as a potential obesity market entry option. LLY has current execution momentum; AMGN offers a cheaper entry point with obesity optionality if MariTide data is positive.
Use this AMGN vs LLY comparison to choose between the dominant obesity drug franchise and a diversified biotech with obesity optionality. Lilly's valuation reflects its dominant GLP-1 position; Amgen's valuation reflects its diversified legacy portfolio with MariTide as a speculative upside call option on the same obesity market.
LLY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+55.78% vs +54.04%), though AMGN has the better forward P/E setup (17.72x vs 24.87x for LLY). LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+11.96%) than for AMGN (-10.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a diversified large-cap biotech at a much lower valuation than LLY
- Value Amgen's biosimilar manufacturing leadership as a growing and durable revenue stream
- See MariTide as a speculative call option on obesity market entry at a lower cost of entry than LLY
- Prefer a higher dividend yield from a profitable, established biotech franchise
- Want the dominant GLP-1 obesity franchise with the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products in history
- Believe the global obesity epidemic represents a multi-decade pharmaceutical growth market worth owning at a premium
- Value Mounjaro/Zepbound's manufacturing ramp as the primary near-term catalyst for revenue acceleration
- Are comfortable with a premium valuation in exchange for the highest-conviction obesity drug exposure available
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.4 | 76.2 |
| AI ranki | #508 | #19 |
| Latest closei | $437.23 | $1,149.36 |
| 1M returni | +7.21% | -1.75% |
| 6M returni | +18.94% | +16.89% |
| 1Y returni | +54.04% | +55.78% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.61K (+56.1%) started 2025-09-04 | $15.47K (+54.7%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $25.3K (+153.0%) started 2021-09-07 | $48.59K (+385.9%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $44.87K (+348.7%) started 2016-09-06 | $199.03K (+1890.3%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $233.78B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 26.88 | 39.36 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.72 | 24.87 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.57 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.27 | 13.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $388.48 | $1,315.04 |
| Target upsidei | -10.16% | +11.96% |
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.50% | 47.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 64.90% | 26.20% |
| EPS growthi | +64.90% | +26.20% |
| FCF margini | +22.69% | +13.89% |
| Operating margini | 35.55% | 54.22% |
| Profit margini | 22.95% | 33.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 91.47% | 102.29% |
| Return on equityi | 91.47% | 102.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.33% | 0.59% |
| Betai | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 490.28 | 162.07 |
| Current ratioi | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.95 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, AMGN and LLY have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +56.10% | +54.71% |
| CAGRi | +56.20% | +54.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.56% | 35.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.59 | 1.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.78 | 2.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.57% | 23.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.55% | 10.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.19% | 6.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.95% | 8.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.75% | 7.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.70% | 8.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +122.76% | +368.04% |
| CAGRi | +17.40% | +36.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.24% | 32.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.97 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 1.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.55% | 10.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.14% | 7.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.28% | 10.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.14% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.81% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +232.85% | +1597.54% |
| CAGRi | +12.79% | +32.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.03% | 30.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.93 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.86% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.55% | 10.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.18% | 6.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.03% | 9.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.58% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.79% | 17.93% |
| Category | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amgen Inc. | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Large-cap biotech with a diversified portfolio including Enbrel, Otezla, Prolia, EVENITY, Repatha, and Lumakras. Acquired Horizon Therapeutics in 2023 (rare disease). Developing MariTide (GLP-1/GIP obesity treatment) as a potential entry into the obesity market. | One of the world's most valuable pharmaceutical companies. GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro (tirzepatide, diabetes) and Zepbound (tirzepatide, obesity) are the fastest-growing pharmaceutical products ever launched. Also markets Verzenio (breast cancer), Jardiance (diabetes), and Taltz (immunology). Developing next-generation obesity drugs (oral GLP-1, retatrutide). |
| Investor focus | MariTide obesity drug clinical data and commercial potential, Horizon rare disease portfolio integration, biosimilar revenue ramp, and dividend growth. | Mounjaro and Zepbound demand relative to supply capacity, obesity pipeline (orforglipron oral GLP-1, retatrutide), international GLP-1 expansion, and manufacturing ramp to meet demand. |
- Large, diversified biologics portfolio with multiple products in stable therapeutic categories
- MariTide obesity drug candidate — if Phase 3 data confirms Phase 2 results, represents a massive new market opportunity
- Amgen is the world's leading biosimilar manufacturer — a growing revenue stream from generic versions of biologics
- Mounjaro/Zepbound are among the most commercially successful drug launches in pharmaceutical history
- Obesity drug pipeline (oral GLP-1, retatrutide) extends the franchise beyond tirzepatide
- Premium valuation is partially justified by the sheer scale of the global obesity epidemic as the addressable market
- Core portfolio faces biosimilar competition on key drugs like Enbrel and Prolia over time
- MariTide is still in clinical development — obesity market entry is not guaranteed and execution risk is high
- Horizon acquisition added significant debt, and the rare disease portfolio is smaller-scale than Amgen's traditional blockbusters
- Manufacturing capacity has been supply-constrained — failure to expand production limits revenue realisation
- Novo Nordisk (semaglutide) is the primary competitor — losing market share to Ozempic/Wegovy would be significant
- Premium valuation prices in a significant portion of the long-term obesity opportunity — disappointment is costly
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