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LLY
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,098.57
+7.55% this month
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NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S · Healthcare
$43.19
-2.46% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
LLY
2
NVO
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
LLY ✓73.6
NVO 40.3
1Y Return
LLY ✓+38.84%
NVO -38.82%
Fwd P/E
LLY 25.47
NVO ✓2.00
Target Up.
LLY +7.31%
NVO ✓+9.23%
Op. Margin
LLY 49.39%
NVO N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
LLY vs NVO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the two companies competing in what may be the largest pharmaceutical market in history — GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes affecting hundreds of millions of patients. Lilly's tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) has shown superior average weight loss vs Novo's semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic). Both companies face manufacturing capacity as their primary constraint. Both are advancing next-generation GLP-1 products (Lilly's retatrutide, Novo's CagriSema) to maintain leadership as the market expands.
LLY vs NVO is tirzepatide's dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism with superior weight loss data and Alzheimer's pipeline (Eli Lilly) versus semaglutide's first-mover GLP-1 marketing dominance, decades of GLP-1 manufacturing experience, and CagriSema next-generation pipeline (Novo Nordisk) — the two companies competing for dominance of the most important pharmaceutical market of the decade.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
LLY and NVO are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+38.84% vs -38.82%), though NVO trades at the lower forward P/E (2.00x vs 25.47x). Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +7.31% for LLY and +9.23% for NVO.
Normalized 1Y performance
LLY
NVO
Recent returns
LLY
NVO
Analyst price targets & sentiment
LLY · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$650.00
analyst mean$1,215.79
current price$1,098.57
+7.3% upside to analyst mean
NVO · 12 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$39.76
analyst high$63.32
analyst mean$47.18
current price$43.19
+9.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
LLY may suit investors who:
- →prefer tirzepatide's superior average weight loss clinical data vs semaglutide as the foundation for sustained market share gains in obesity
- →value Lilly's Alzheimer's pipeline (Kisunla) as a significant additional blockbuster opportunity independent of GLP-1 obesity drugs
- →want the highest-upside GLP-1 exposure with retatrutide (triple agonist) and orforglipron (oral) providing next-generation obesity options beyond current tirzepatide
- →are comfortable with manufacturing capacity as the primary near-term constraint limiting Zepbound revenue growth and supply shortage risk
NVO may suit investors who:
- →prefer Novo Nordisk's first-mover GLP-1 marketing position, decades of manufacturing experience, and broader geographic distribution vs Lilly's initial US focus
- →value semaglutide's established physician prescribing habits and Ozempic's viral cultural penetration creating patient demand that benefits Novo's entire GLP-1 portfolio
- →want the largest-scale GLP-1 manufacturer with more manufacturing experience reducing supply risk relative to newer entrants
- →are comfortable with Zepbound's superior weight loss data shifting prescribing toward Lilly and CagriSema needing strong Phase 3 results to defend Novo's leadership
Performance & AI score
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 73.6 | 40.3 |
| AI rank | #26 | #1068 |
| Latest close | $1,098.57 | $43.19 |
| 1M return | +7.55% | -2.46% |
| 6M return | +5.45% | -6.27% |
| 1Y return | +38.84% | -38.82% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.99K (+39.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $6.41K (-35.9%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $53.49K (+434.9%) started 2021-06-21 | $13.06K (+30.6%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $206.62K (+1966.2%) started 2016-06-20 | $27.21K (+172.1%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.01T | $191.24B |
| Trailing P/E | 40.32 | 10.16 |
| Forward P/E | 25.47 | 2.00 |
| Price/Sales | 14.10 | 0.58 |
| EV/Revenue | 14.51 | 0.97 |
| Analyst target | $1,215.79 | $47.18 |
| Target upside | +7.31% | +9.23% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 55.50% | 24.00% |
| Earnings growth | 169.90% | 67.10% |
| EPS growth | +169.90% | +67.10% |
| FCF margin | +12.67% | -3.67% |
| Operating margin | 49.39% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 34.99% | 37.21% |
| ROIC proxy | 107.46% | 71.40% |
| Return on equity | 107.46% | 71.40% |
| Dividend yield | 0.61% | 4.14% |
| Beta | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| Debt/equity | 139.01 | 72.09 |
| Current ratio | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| Quick ratio | 0.72 | 0.54 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
LLY max drawdown23.31%
NVO max drawdown50.76%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
5Y risk snapshot
LLY max drawdown34.48%
NVO max drawdown74.70%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
10Y risk snapshot
LLY max drawdown34.48%
NVO max drawdown74.70%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +39.94% | -38.82% |
| CAGR | +40.01% | -38.84% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.96 | -0.77 | |
| Max drawdown | 23.31% | 50.76% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.14% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.93% | 33.45% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +413.56% | +16.87% |
| CAGR | +38.78% | +3.17% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.04 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.48% | 74.70% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.14% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.93% | 33.45% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1649.40% | +110.73% |
| CAGR | +33.16% | +7.74% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.48% | 74.70% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.14% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.93% | 33.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Eli Lilly and Company | Novo Nordisk A/S |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | N/A |
| Core business | Eli Lilly is a leading pharmaceutical company whose near-term growth is dominated by two breakthrough drugs: Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide — dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for diabetes and obesity) and Kisunla (donanemab — Alzheimer's treatment). Zepbound showed greater average weight loss than Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trial design comparisons. Lilly is also advancing its oral GLP-1 (orforglipron), next-generation obesity drugs (retatrutide — triple agonist), and Alzheimer's treatments. | Novo Nordisk is the global diabetes and obesity drug leader, manufacturing the world's most widely used GLP-1 drugs: Ozempic (semaglutide for diabetes), Wegovy (semaglutide for obesity), and Victoza (liraglutide). Novo Nordisk has been manufacturing GLP-1 drugs for decades — its manufacturing scale and experience give it supply advantages over newer entrants. Ozempic's diabetes indication has seen viral off-label use for weight loss, dramatically exceeding initial demand forecasts. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Mounjaro/Zepbound combined quarterly sales, manufacturing capacity expansion (the primary constraint on revenue growth), pipeline milestone announcements, and Kisunla Alzheimer's market penetration. | Investors track Ozempic and Wegovy combined sales, semaglutide supply expansion (the capacity is Novo's most critical metric), and CagriSema (combination semaglutide + cagrilintide) next-generation obesity pipeline. |
LLY strengths
- →Zepbound superior weight loss data vs Wegovy: tirzepatide's dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism has shown greater average weight loss than semaglutide in clinical trials
- →Retatrutide (triple agonist — GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) in Phase 3 could be the next-generation obesity drug with even greater weight loss than tirzepatide
- →Alzheimer's pipeline is an additional blockbuster opportunity — Kisunla (donanemab) approval adds a significant new disease area independent of obesity
NVO strengths
- →First-mover advantage in GLP-1 marketing: Ozempic's viral adoption for weight loss gave Novo Nordisk massive brand recognition and physician prescribing habits before Lilly's Zepbound launched
- →Manufacturing scale from decades of insulin and GLP-1 production — Novo Nordisk has more GLP-1 manufacturing experience than any competitor
- →CagriSema Phase 3 could show greater weight loss than Wegovy — Novo Nordisk is not standing still while Lilly advances retatrutide
Risks to watch — LLY
- →Manufacturing capacity is the primary constraint — Lilly cannot meet Zepbound demand and is losing potential revenue to supply shortage
- →Novo Nordisk's semaglutide oral formulation (Rybelsus) and Wegovy subcutaneous are the primary competitive threats with established market presence
- →GLP-1 manufacturing requires complex biological production — capacity expansion takes 3–5 years, creating competitive opportunity for first movers and challenges for laggards
Risks to watch — NVO
- →Zepbound's superior average weight loss (20%+ vs Wegovy's 15%) has been shifting prescribing share toward Lilly's tirzepatide
- →Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide (Rybelsus/OIC oral) has lower bioavailability than injectable — oral GLP-1 competition from Lilly's orforglipron may be more potent
- →CagriSema clinical results and timeline relative to Lilly's next-generation retatrutide and triple agonist pipeline
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