LLY vs NVO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the two companies competing in what may be the largest pharmaceutical market in history — GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes affecting hundreds of millions of patients. Lilly's tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) has shown superior average weight loss vs Novo's semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic). Both companies face manufacturing capacity as their primary constraint. Both are advancing next-generation GLP-1 products (Lilly's retatrutide, Novo's CagriSema) to maintain leadership as the market expands.
LLY vs NVO is tirzepatide's dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism with superior weight loss data and Alzheimer's pipeline (Eli Lilly) versus semaglutide's first-mover GLP-1 marketing dominance, decades of GLP-1 manufacturing experience, and CagriSema next-generation pipeline (Novo Nordisk) — the two companies competing for dominance of the most important pharmaceutical market of the decade.
LLY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+51.12% vs -26.60%), though NVO has the better forward P/E setup (1.97x vs 24.87x for LLY). LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+11.96%) than for NVO (+8.24%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer tirzepatide's superior average weight loss clinical data vs semaglutide as the foundation for sustained market share gains in obesity
- value Lilly's Alzheimer's pipeline (Kisunla) as a significant additional blockbuster opportunity independent of GLP-1 obesity drugs
- want the highest-upside GLP-1 exposure with retatrutide (triple agonist) and orforglipron (oral) providing next-generation obesity options beyond current tirzepatide
- are comfortable with manufacturing capacity as the primary near-term constraint limiting Zepbound revenue growth and supply shortage risk
- prefer Novo Nordisk's first-mover GLP-1 marketing position, decades of manufacturing experience, and broader geographic distribution vs Lilly's initial US focus
- value semaglutide's established physician prescribing habits and Ozempic's viral cultural penetration creating patient demand that benefits Novo's entire GLP-1 portfolio
- want the largest-scale GLP-1 manufacturer with more manufacturing experience reducing supply risk relative to newer entrants
- are comfortable with Zepbound's superior weight loss data shifting prescribing toward Lilly and CagriSema needing strong Phase 3 results to defend Novo's leadership
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 75.8 | 40.8 |
| AI ranki | #21 | #1107 |
| Latest closei | $1,152.93 | $43.24 |
| 1M returni | -9.95% | -6.97% |
| 6M returni | +25.66% | +24.28% |
| 1Y returni | +51.12% | -26.60% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.11K (+51.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $7.71K (-22.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $53.61K (+436.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $10.96K (+9.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $198.01K (+1880.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $30.96K (+209.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.05T | $191.03B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 39.36 | 10.73 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.87 | 1.97 |
| Price/Salesi | 14.10 | 0.58 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.72 | 0.87 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,315.04 | $46.80 |
| Target upsidei | +11.96% | +8.24% |
| Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 47.70% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 26.20% | -20.60% |
| EPS growthi | +26.20% | -20.60% |
| FCF margini | +13.89% | +11.44% |
| Operating margini | 54.22% | 42.54% |
| Profit margini | 33.53% | 35.35% |
| ROIC proxyi | 102.29% | 59.81% |
| Return on equityi | 102.29% | 59.81% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.59% | 4.15% |
| Payout ratioi | 21.69% | 44.46% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 7 yrs |
| Betai | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 162.07 | 63.33 |
| Current ratioi | 1.35 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.68 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, LLY and NVO have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.23), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +51.12% | -26.60% |
| CAGRi | +51.16% | -26.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.78% | 45.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.21 | -0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.05 | -0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.31% | 43.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 29.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.58% | 23.32% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.60% | 25.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.79% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.60% | 26.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +416.44% | -2.69% |
| CAGRi | +38.91% | -0.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.74% | 38.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.03 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.59 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.48% | 74.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 68.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.39% | 25.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.20% | 36.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.14% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.93% | 33.45% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1588.83% | +138.86% |
| CAGRi | +32.68% | +9.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.54% | 32.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.93 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.44 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.48% | 74.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 68.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.96% | 17.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.34% | 27.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.14% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.93% | 33.45% |
| Category | LLY | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Eli Lilly and Company | Novo Nordisk A/S |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Eli Lilly is a leading pharmaceutical company whose near-term growth is dominated by two breakthrough drugs: Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide — dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for diabetes and obesity) and Kisunla (donanemab — Alzheimer's treatment). Zepbound showed greater average weight loss than Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trial design comparisons. Lilly is also advancing its oral GLP-1 (orforglipron), next-generation obesity drugs (retatrutide — triple agonist), and Alzheimer's treatments. | Novo Nordisk is the global diabetes and obesity drug leader, manufacturing the world's most widely used GLP-1 drugs: Ozempic (semaglutide for diabetes), Wegovy (semaglutide for obesity), and Victoza (liraglutide). Novo Nordisk has been manufacturing GLP-1 drugs for decades — its manufacturing scale and experience give it supply advantages over newer entrants. Ozempic's diabetes indication has seen viral off-label use for weight loss, dramatically exceeding initial demand forecasts. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Mounjaro/Zepbound combined quarterly sales, manufacturing capacity expansion (the primary constraint on revenue growth), pipeline milestone announcements, and Kisunla Alzheimer's market penetration. | Investors track Ozempic and Wegovy combined sales, semaglutide supply expansion (the capacity is Novo's most critical metric), and CagriSema (combination semaglutide + cagrilintide) next-generation obesity pipeline. |
- Zepbound superior weight loss data vs Wegovy: tirzepatide's dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism has shown greater average weight loss than semaglutide in clinical trials
- Retatrutide (triple agonist — GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) in Phase 3 could be the next-generation obesity drug with even greater weight loss than tirzepatide
- Alzheimer's pipeline is an additional blockbuster opportunity — Kisunla (donanemab) approval adds a significant new disease area independent of obesity
- First-mover advantage in GLP-1 marketing: Ozempic's viral adoption for weight loss gave Novo Nordisk massive brand recognition and physician prescribing habits before Lilly's Zepbound launched
- Manufacturing scale from decades of insulin and GLP-1 production — Novo Nordisk has more GLP-1 manufacturing experience than any competitor
- CagriSema Phase 3 could show greater weight loss than Wegovy — Novo Nordisk is not standing still while Lilly advances retatrutide
- Manufacturing capacity is the primary constraint — Lilly cannot meet Zepbound demand and is losing potential revenue to supply shortage
- Novo Nordisk's semaglutide oral formulation (Rybelsus) and Wegovy subcutaneous are the primary competitive threats with established market presence
- GLP-1 manufacturing requires complex biological production — capacity expansion takes 3–5 years, creating competitive opportunity for first movers and challenges for laggards
- Zepbound's superior average weight loss (20%+ vs Wegovy's 15%) has been shifting prescribing share toward Lilly's tirzepatide
- Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide (Rybelsus/OIC oral) has lower bioavailability than injectable — oral GLP-1 competition from Lilly's orforglipron may be more potent
- CagriSema clinical results and timeline relative to Lilly's next-generation retatrutide and triple agonist pipeline
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