CP vs CNI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CPKC (CP) now holds a unique strategic advantage as the only single-line railroad connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico following its Kansas City Southern acquisition, while CNI remains the stronger transcontinental Canadian franchise with a long track record of operational excellence. CP's Mexico growth story is the key differentiator between the two.
CP vs CNI compares the two dominant Canadian transcontinental railroads, with CPKC's unique cross-border North American corridor representing a new growth vector versus CNI's more mature but operationally excellent franchise.
CNI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CNI leads on both 1-year return (+28.82%) and forward P/E quality (18.56x vs 20.65x for CP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CP is growing revenue faster (12.60%), while CNI maintains the higher operating margin (40.27%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.20% for CP and +16.17% for CNI.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the unique Canada-U.S.-Mexico single-line rail corridor
- Believe nearshoring and growing Mexico trade volumes will drive long-term CPKC growth
- Are comfortable with KCS integration execution risk in exchange for a differentiated network position
- Want exposure to the broader Canadian transcontinental railroad franchise
- Value CN's track record of strong operating ratio discipline and shareholder returns
- Prefer a more mature, established railroad without the integration complexity of a recent major merger
| Metric | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.3 | 43.1 |
| AI ranki | #397 | #888 |
| Latest closei | $88.78 | $119.87 |
| 1M returni | -5.23% | -4.77% |
| 6M returni | +13.64% | +22.28% |
| 1Y returni | +18.68% | +28.82% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.95K (+19.5%) started 2025-09-17 | $13.11K (+31.1%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $14.28K (+42.8%) started 2021-09-17 | $12.43K (+24.3%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $36.28K (+262.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $28.16K (+181.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $78.55B | $72.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.82 | 21.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.65 | 18.56 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.73 | 5.36 |
| Analyst targeti | $101.14 | $140.14 |
| Target upsidei | +13.20% | +16.17% |
| Metric | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.60% | 11.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -13.50% | 10.20% |
| EPS growthi | -13.50% | +10.20% |
| FCF margini | +14.12% | +17.04% |
| Operating margini | 38.98% | 40.27% |
| Profit margini | 25.03% | 26.92% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.15% | 22.02% |
| Return on equityi | 8.15% | 22.02% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.85% | 2.16% |
| Payout ratioi | 22.14% | 46.28% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equityi | 52.82 | 103.89 |
| Current ratioi | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.45 | 0.50 |
Over the past year, CP and CNI have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.79), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +18.68% | +28.82% |
| CAGRi | +18.70% | +28.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.60% | 21.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 1.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.01 | 1.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.10% | 12.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.18% | 7.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.57% | 2.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.72% | 3.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.06% | 5.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.14% | 6.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +37.29% | +11.91% |
| CAGRi | +6.54% | +2.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.20% | 22.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.20 | 0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.29 | 0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.88% | 29.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.18% | 7.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.72% | 13.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.45% | 15.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.60% | 6.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.59% | 9.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +230.72% | +129.42% |
| CAGRi | +12.72% | +8.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.50% | 22.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.60 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.70% | 29.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.18% | 7.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.71% | 9.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.89% | 11.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.57% | 11.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.11% | 17.27% |
| Category | CP | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited | Canadian National Railway Company |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) is the only single-line railroad connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico, following its 2023 acquisition of Kansas City Southern, transporting grain, potash, energy, intermodal, and automotive products across the continent. | Canadian National is a transcontinental Canadian railroad with a network spanning Canada from coast to coast and reaching into the U.S. Gulf Coast, transporting petroleum, chemicals, grain, fertilizers, coal, and intermodal freight. |
| Investor focus | Investors track CPKC's cross-border Mexico corridor growth, volume and yield trends following the Kansas City Southern integration, and operating ratio improvement as the combined network matures. | Investors track CN's operating ratio, volume trends across its diverse commodity segments, and its ability to sustain pricing power and capital returns while managing cyclical freight demand. |
- Unique single-line Canada-U.S.-Mexico corridor with no direct rail-on-rail competitor for cross-border freight
- Growing Mexico trade corridor presents a significant long-term volume growth opportunity
- Kansas City Southern integration creates a new North American trade network with structural franchise advantages
- Only transcontinental railroad in Canada connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts
- Diverse commodity mix including grain, petroleum, intermodal, and potash reduces single-commodity risk
- Long track record of strong operating ratio discipline and shareholder returns
- Kansas City Southern integration complexity and timeline for achieving full synergy benefits
- Mexico business is sensitive to trade policy, nearshoring trends, and cross-border regulatory risk
- Operating ratio is still improving from a more challenging post-merger baseline
- Agricultural freight volumes are sensitive to crop yields, weather, and export demand
- Lost out to CP in the Kansas City Southern acquisition, leaving CN without a direct Mexico corridor
- Competition with CP for cross-border U.S. freight corridors has intensified
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