CP vs UNP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Union Pacific are both major North American Class I railroads, but CPKC operates a unique single-line network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico following its merger with Kansas City Southern, while Union Pacific operates a large, established network concentrated across the western United States.
CPKC offers a differentiated cross-border growth story tied to merger synergy realization and Mexico freight volume potential, while Union Pacific offers an established, diversified western rail network with a long operating efficiency track record. Consider whether you prefer CPKC's cross-border growth narrative or Union Pacific's established network scale and efficiency.
UNP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UNP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+31.32% vs +18.00%), though CP has the better forward P/E setup (20.65x vs 21.72x for UNP). On fundamentals, CP is growing revenue faster (12.60%), while UNP maintains the higher operating margin (40.98%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CP (+13.20%) than for UNP (+7.10%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe the unique cross-border network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico provides a durable competitive advantage
- See long-term upside from merger synergy realization and Mexico industrial and nearshoring growth
- Are comfortable with the operational complexity of integrating a three-country rail network
- Want exposure to a differentiated growth story among the major Class I railroads
- Want exposure to an established, diversified western United States rail network
- Value Union Pacific's long track record of operating ratio improvement and disciplined execution
- Believe diversified freight mix across bulk, intermodal, and industrial products provides earnings stability
- Prefer an established network scale story over a merger-integration growth narrative
| Metric | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.3 | 53.3 |
| AI ranki | #397 | #348 |
| Latest closei | $89.02 | $283.99 |
| 1M returni | -4.79% | -3.30% |
| 6M returni | +10.93% | +17.20% |
| 1Y returni | +18.00% | +31.32% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.88K (+18.8%) started 2025-09-15 | $13.15K (+31.5%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $13.99K (+39.9%) started 2021-09-15 | $16.56K (+65.6%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $36K (+260.0%) started 2016-09-15 | $45.04K (+350.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $78.55B | $182.62B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.82 | 24.87 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.65 | 21.72 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.51 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.73 | 8.33 |
| Analyst targeti | $101.14 | $329.25 |
| Target upsidei | +13.20% | +7.10% |
| Metric | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.60% | 11.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -13.50% | 6.60% |
| EPS growthi | -13.50% | +6.60% |
| FCF margini | +14.12% | +18.58% |
| Operating margini | 38.98% | 40.98% |
| Profit margini | 25.03% | 28.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.15% | 39.70% |
| Return on equityi | 8.15% | 39.70% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.85% | 1.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 22.14% | 44.70% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.22 | 0.96 |
| Debt/equityi | 52.82 | 150.77 |
| Current ratioi | 0.59 | 0.99 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.45 | 0.76 |
Over the past year, CP and UNP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.63), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +18.00% | +31.48% |
| CAGRi | +18.01% | +31.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.54% | 22.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 1.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 1.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.10% | 12.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.93% | 8.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.53% | 3.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.68% | 4.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.06% | 4.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.14% | 6.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +34.50% | +52.63% |
| CAGRi | +6.11% | +8.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.20% | 23.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.88% | 31.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.93% | 8.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.73% | 12.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.45% | 14.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.60% | 6.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.59% | 12.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +228.22% | +267.62% |
| CAGRi | +12.62% | +13.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.50% | 25.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.60 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.70% | 38.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.93% | 8.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.71% | 8.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.88% | 11.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.57% | 13.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.11% | 18.71% |
| Category | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited | Union Pacific Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | A Class I freight railroad operating the only single-line rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico, formed through the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, transporting bulk, intermodal, and merchandise freight. | A Class I freight railroad operating an extensive network across the western two-thirds of the United States, transporting bulk commodities, intermodal containers, and industrial and agricultural products. |
| Investor focus | Merger synergy realization progress, cross-border Mexico freight volume growth, and network integration benefits from the combined rail system. | Operating ratio trends, intermodal and carload volume growth, and pricing power across the diversified freight portfolio. |
- Unique single-line network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico provides a differentiated cross-border freight offering
- Merger with Kansas City Southern created new single-line routing options that can capture freight previously requiring interchange between multiple railroads
- Growing Mexico industrial and nearshoring activity provides a potential long-term freight volume growth driver
- Extensive western United States rail network provides access to major ports, industrial centers, and agricultural regions
- Long track record of operating ratio improvement reflects disciplined precision scheduled railroading execution
- Diversified freight mix across bulk, intermodal, and industrial products reduces reliance on any single commodity
- Full realization of merger synergies and cross-border volume growth potential will take time to play out
- Mexico trade policy, tariff developments, and cross-border regulatory dynamics can influence freight volume growth
- Network integration across three countries introduces operational complexity relative to single-country railroads
- Freight volumes remain sensitive to broader industrial production, agricultural harvest conditions, and consumer demand cycles
- Regulatory scrutiny of railroad pricing and service practices can influence the competitive and rate-setting environment
- Network capacity constraints at points in the freight cycle can affect service reliability and growth capture
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