Data as of:
LIVE
FAST
Fastenal Company · Industrial Distribution
$49.01
-4.72% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
WSO
Watsco, Inc. · HVAC Distribution
$311.77
-2.46% this month
Comparison scoreboard
FAST LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
FAST ✓49.5
WSO 38.1
1Y Returni
FAST ✓+3.79%
WSO -18.86%
Fwd P/Ei
FAST 35.56
WSO ✓23.27
Target Up.i
FAST -2.51%
WSO ✓+22.69%
Op. Margini
FAST ✓21.02%
WSO 10.94%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
FAST vs WSO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
FAST (Fastenal) and WSO (Watsco) are both specialized industrial distributors with niche expertise creating superior returns vs broad-line distributors. Fastenal excels in industrial fasteners and MRO with its innovative Onsite and vending machine programs. Watsco dominates HVAC/R distribution with non-discretionary replacement demand and efficiency standard tailwinds. Both are long-term compounders but with very different industrial end markets.
FAST vs WSO — Fastenal (the industrial fastener and MRO distributor with Onsite embedded-customer programs, vending machine inventory automation, and 3,200+ branch network creating deep manufacturer customer integration) versus Watsco (the HVAC/R equipment and parts distribution leader with 690+ locations, Carrier Enterprise JV access, and non-discretionary replacement demand tailwinds from aging equipment and efficiency mandates).
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
FAST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FAST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+3.79% vs -18.86%), though WSO has the better forward P/E setup (23.27x vs 35.56x for FAST). FAST leads on both revenue growth (14.70%) and operating margin (21.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WSO (+22.69%) than for FAST (-2.51%).
Normalized 1Y performance
FAST
WSO
Recent returns
FAST
WSO
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
FAST · 11 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.9/5.0)
6 Buy / 7 Hold / 5 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$29.50
analyst mean$48.53
current price$49.01
-2.5% upside to analyst mean
WSO
Price target range
analyst mean$379.00
current price$311.77
+22.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
FAST may suit investors who:
- value Fastenal's Onsite program as creating genuine switching costs — once embedded in a customer's facility with Fastenal personnel managing their supply chain, the relationship is extremely sticky
- see monthly sales transparency as a unique monitoring tool — Fastenal's monthly daily sales rate reporting allows investors to track industrial demand inflections in real time
- believe industrial automation and manufacturing reshoring will drive sustained MRO spending growth that benefits Fastenal's deep manufacturing customer relationships
- are comfortable with industrial demand cyclicality, Amazon Business competition for commodity fasteners, and 3,200+ branch labor management complexity
WSO may suit investors who:
- value non-discretionary HVAC replacement demand as a more recession-resistant industrial distribution category vs Fastenal's more cyclical manufacturing and construction demand
- see efficiency standard mandates (SEER2 minimum standards) as a structural tailwind creating a replacement supercycle for older, less-efficient HVAC equipment over the next decade
- prefer Watsco's Carrier Enterprise JV as creating preferred brand access that competing distributors cannot easily replicate without similar manufacturer partnership depth
- are comfortable with weather-dependent demand variability, Carrier product concentration, and e-commerce competition for HVAC replacement parts from online distributors
Performance & AI score
| Metric | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.5 | 38.1 |
| AI ranki | #568 | #1416 |
| Latest closei | $49.01 | $311.77 |
| 1M returni | -4.72% | -2.46% |
| 6M returni | +12.00% | -16.47% |
| 1Y returni | +3.79% | -18.86% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.3K (+3.0%) started 2025-09-19 | $8K (-20.0%) started 2025-09-19 |
| 5Y ago | $24.77K (+147.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $11.4K (+14.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $103.06K (+930.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $21.67K (+116.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $57.12B | $12.74B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 42.55 | 26.52 |
| Forward P/Ei | 35.56 | 23.27 |
| Price/Salesi | 6.34 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.56 | 1.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $48.53 | $379.00 |
| Target upsidei | -2.51% | +22.69% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.70% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 14.60% | -11.70% |
| EPS growthi | +14.60% | -11.70% |
| FCF margini | +10.47% | +6.64% |
| Operating margini | 21.02% | 10.94% |
| Profit margini | 15.45% | 6.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.33% | 16.74% |
| Return on equityi | 34.33% | 16.74% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.93% | 4.19% |
| Payout ratioi | 78.63% | 105.40% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.71 | 1.04 |
| Debt/equityi | 10.85 | 15.41 |
| Current ratioi | 4.18 | 3.20 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.00 | 1.41 |
Correlation
Over the past year, FAST and WSO have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.43
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.26
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.32
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
FAST max drawdowni20.17%
WSO max drawdowni33.83%
FAST max wkly dropi11.41%
WSO max wkly dropi14.56%
5Y risk snapshot
FAST max drawdowni51.17%
WSO max drawdowni46.85%
FAST max wkly dropi49.41%
WSO max wkly dropi14.56%
10Y risk snapshot
FAST max drawdowni51.17%
WSO max drawdowni46.85%
FAST max wkly dropi49.41%
WSO max wkly dropi14.87%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +3.01% | -20.03% |
| CAGRi | +3.02% | -20.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.49% | 34.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.07 | -0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.09 | -0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.17% | 33.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.43% | 31.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.50% | 14.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.95% | 16.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.54% | 12.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.41% | 14.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +103.60% | +13.97% |
| CAGRi | +15.29% | +2.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.94% | 31.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.81 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.17% | 46.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.43% | 45.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.29% | 14.68% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.68% | 19.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 50.75% | 12.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 49.41% | 14.56% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +510.70% | +116.73% |
| CAGRi | +19.84% | +8.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.48% | 28.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.17% | 46.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.43% | 45.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.38% | 11.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.85% | 15.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 50.75% | 12.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 49.41% | 14.87% |
Business comparison
| Category | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Fastenal Company | Watsco, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Industrial Distribution | Industrial Distribution |
| Core business | Fastenal is the leading industrial fasteners and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) distributor with 3,200+ branch locations and an innovative onsite vending and inventory management model. Fastenal's Onsite program places dedicated Fastenal personnel and inventory inside large customer facilities — making Fastenal the customer's de facto internal supply chain team. Fastenal's Blue Screwdriver vending machines manage bin inventory replenishment automatically. Fastenal distributes fasteners, safety products, tools, janitorial supplies, and MRO consumables to manufacturers, construction companies, and industrial customers. | Watsco is the largest independent HVAC/R (heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration) equipment and parts distributor in North America, with 690+ distribution locations. Watsco distributes equipment from Carrier (48% Watsco-owned Carrier Enterprise JV), Trane Technologies, and other brands alongside replacement parts and supplies. HVAC replacement is largely non-discretionary — aging equipment, emergency breakdowns, and regulatory efficiency mandates drive replacement cycles. Watsco's e-commerce platform and digital tools for HVAC contractors improve order efficiency and contractor relationship management. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Fastenal's Onsite program customer count growth, vending machine installations, daily sales growth (tracked monthly), and margin performance through industrial demand cycles. | Investors focus on Watsco's revenue growth from HVAC replacement demand (aging US equipment installed base), Carrier-related product line performance, new efficiency standard tailwinds (higher SEER requirements), and e-commerce platform adoption. |
FAST strengths
- Onsite program creating deep customer integration: Fastenal's Onsite program embeds Fastenal personnel and inventory inside large customer facilities — providing supply chain visibility and creating switching costs that standard distributors don't have
- Vending machine network automating replenishment: Fastenal's industrial vending machines track inventory and automate reorder in real time — providing customers labor savings and reducing stockouts while creating recurring Fastenal purchase commitments
- Monthly sales data transparency: Fastenal reports daily sales growth rates monthly — a rare level of financial transparency that allows investors to track industrial demand trends in near real time
WSO strengths
- HVAC replacement demand is non-discretionary: when AC breaks in July, homeowners replace it regardless of economic conditions — HVAC replacement demand is more recession-resistant than many industrial distribution categories
- Energy efficiency regulatory mandates driving replacements: DOE's minimum SEER2 efficiency standards took effect in 2023 — requiring higher-efficiency equipment replacements that increase average selling price per unit
- Carrier Enterprise JV distribution network: Watsco's JV with Carrier gives it preferred access to Carrier's product line — the most recognized HVAC brand in the US — creating a distribution relationship competitors can't easily replicate
Risks to watch — FAST
- Industrial demand cyclicality: Fastenal's MRO revenue tracks industrial production closely — manufacturing slowdowns directly impact Fastenal's organic growth rate
- Distributor disintermediation from Amazon Business and direct manufacturer programs: large companies increasingly evaluate Amazon Business and direct manufacturer purchasing for standard MRO items — potential pressure on distributors serving commodity fasteners
- Human capital in 3,200+ branch model: Fastenal's branch network requires significant employee count — labor costs and retention in a tight labor market impact operating efficiency
Risks to watch — WSO
- Weather-dependent demand: HVAC replacement is partly weather-driven — an unusually mild summer or warm winter can defer replacements, creating revenue variability from weather patterns
- Carrier brand relationship concentration: Watsco's JV with Carrier means significant revenue concentration in Carrier product lines — any changes to the JV structure or Carrier's distribution strategy could impact Watsco
- E-commerce competition for HVAC parts: online HVAC parts distributors (Repair Clinic, HVAC Direct) compete for the contractor parts business that supplements equipment sales in Watsco's revenue mix
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