AFL vs MET Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Aflac and MetLife are both large insurance companies focused on workplace benefits and international markets, but their products and competitive positions differ materially. Aflac is the pure-play supplemental health insurer with unmatched Japan franchise value and an exceptional dividend track record. MetLife is a broader group benefits conglomerate with US large employer relationships and international diversification beyond Japan.
Aflac suits income investors who want a dividend compounder with a unique Japan supplemental health insurance franchise; MetLife suits those who prefer broader group benefits and international diversification with a lower Japan concentration.
MET holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MET leads on both 1-year return (+23.73%) and forward P/E quality (8.84x vs 15.29x for AFL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, MET is growing revenue faster (10.50%), while AFL maintains the higher operating margin (25.72%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MET (+8.86%) than for AFL (+2.82%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prioritize dividend income with 40+ consecutive years of annual increases
- want unique exposure to supplemental health insurance in both the US and Japan markets
- value a simple, focused business model with predictable claims and premium growth
- are comfortable with yen/USD exchange rate sensitivity on Japan earnings
- prefer broader insurance exposure across group life, disability, dental, and international
- value the large US employer relationship base in the group benefits segment
- want international emerging market insurance growth via Latin America and Asia
- are comfortable with some mortality and interest rate volatility in a diversified insurer
| Metric | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 48.3 | 53.2 |
| AI ranki | #625 | #349 |
| Latest closei | $116.60 | $97.35 |
| 1M returni | -4.21% | +0.64% |
| 6M returni | +8.80% | +41.89% |
| 1Y returni | +6.75% | +23.73% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.8K (+8.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.31K (+23.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $26.43K (+164.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $20.77K (+107.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $49.3K (+393.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $47.23K (+372.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $57.79B | $61.33B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.44 | 18.49 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.29 | 8.84 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.60 | 1.07 |
| Analyst targeti | $118.53 | $105.06 |
| Target upsidei | +2.82% | +8.86% |
| Metric | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.00% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 46.80% | 5.80% |
| EPS growthi | +46.80% | +5.80% |
| FCF margini | +28.51% | -26.39% |
| Operating margini | 25.72% | 5.52% |
| Profit margini | 26.91% | 4.57% |
| ROIC proxyi | 16.91% | 13.09% |
| Return on equityi | 16.91% | 13.09% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.12% | 2.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 25.67% | 43.97% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| Debt/equityi | 53.37 | 179.93 |
| Current ratioi | 0.89 | 2.03 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.78 | 1.71 |
Over the past year, AFL and MET have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.48), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +7.96% | +23.12% |
| CAGRi | +7.98% | +23.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.22% | 23.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.81 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.38 | 1.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.64% | 18.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.00% | 2.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.85% | 5.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.88% | 6.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.29% | 5.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 4.88% | 8.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +142.94% | +84.10% |
| CAGRi | +19.45% | +13.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.82% | 25.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 19.86% | 35.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.00% | 2.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.98% | 8.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.62% | 11.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.65% | 9.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.28% | 16.59% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +295.44% | +234.99% |
| CAGRi | +14.74% | +12.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.79% | 29.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.89% | 55.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.00% | 2.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.84% | 10.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.28% | 13.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 16.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.59% | 30.33% |
| Category | AFL | MET |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Aflac Incorporated | MetLife, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Life | Insurance - Life |
| Core business | Aflac is the leading provider of supplemental health insurance in the US and Japan. Its products — which pay cash directly to policyholders for lost income during illness or injury — are sold primarily through workplaces in the US and through Japan Post and affiliated channels in Japan. Japan accounts for approximately 70% of pretax earnings, making currency exposure and Japanese consumer behavior key revenue drivers. The Aflac duck marketing campaigns have made it one of the most recognized insurance brands in the US. | MetLife is one of the largest global insurance and employee benefits companies, offering group life, disability, dental, accident and health, and individual life products. Following the spin-off of its US retail life operations (Brighthouse Financial), MetLife has pivoted to group benefits and international insurance as its core businesses. The Group Benefits segment serves large US employers; international operations span Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Japan premium revenue in USD terms (exposed to yen depreciation), US sales growth through new employer relationships, medical claims ratios, and the company's consistent dividend increase track record (40+ consecutive years). | Investors track group benefits earnings (employer-paid premiums and claims experience), international growth rates by region, adjusted earnings per share excluding market movements, and capital return via dividends and buybacks. |
- Dominant position in Japan supplemental health insurance with embedded Japan Post distribution
- 40+ consecutive years of dividend increases, placing it among the highest-quality income stocks
- Supplemental health insurance product demand is structurally growing as out-of-pocket healthcare costs rise
- Leading US group benefits franchise serving the Fortune 500 with strong employer retention rates
- International diversification across high-growth markets in Asia and Latin America
- Spin-off of Brighthouse simplified the business and reduced equity market earnings volatility
- Japan revenue is sensitive to yen/USD exchange rate — yen weakness reduces USD reported earnings
- Japan is a maturing market with demographic headwinds limiting long-term premium volume growth
- US sales growth has been below historical rates in recent years
- Group life mortality experience can be volatile — pandemic-era COVID losses illustrated this risk
- Interest rate sensitivity in the investment portfolio as duration mismatches affect book value
- International operations in emerging markets carry FX and political risk
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.