COF vs CME Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Capital One's card issuing and lending model against CME Group's futures and options exchange toll-taking business.
Use this Capital One vs CME Group comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
COF holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CME has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.15% vs -8.64%), though COF has the better forward P/E setup (8.98x vs 22.10x for CME). On fundamentals, COF is growing revenue faster (1111.00%), while CME maintains the higher operating margin (65.04%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COF (+19.75%) than for CME (-0.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.1 | 47.4 |
| AI ranki | #138 | #638 |
| Latest closei | $201.34 | $305.71 |
| 1M returni | +2.67% | +12.89% |
| 3M returni | -0.74% | +19.74% |
| 6M returni | +5.20% | +7.24% |
| 1Y returni | -8.64% | +14.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.15K (-8.5%) started 2025-10-23 | $11.37K (+13.7%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $13.66K (+36.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $19.68K (+96.8%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $36.63K (+266.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $61.58K (+515.8%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $132.31B | $102.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.88 | 24.22 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.98 | 22.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 15.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.82 | 15.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $258.27 | $283.07 |
| Target upsidei | +19.75% | -0.96% |
| Metric | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1111.00% | 0.80% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.20% | 2.50% |
| EPS growthi | -3.20% | +2.50% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +43.05% |
| Operating margini | 33.63% | 65.04% |
| Profit margini | 21.87% | 63.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.03% | 15.80% |
| Return on equityi | 9.03% | 15.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.48% | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 19.27% | 95.42% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.02 | 0.27 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 14.59 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 0.02 |
Over the past year, COF and CME have moved barely in opposite directions (correlation of -0.12), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.50% | +13.69% |
| CAGRi | -8.51% | +13.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.13% | 24.65% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.27 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.36 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.73% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.94% | 6.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.65% | 10.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.05% | 13.73% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.84% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.29% | 11.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +27.60% | +65.23% |
| CAGRi | +5.00% | +10.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.14% | 20.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.72% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.94% | 6.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.09% | 11.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.15% | 14.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.96% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.58% | 11.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +211.15% | +313.74% |
| CAGRi | +12.02% | +15.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.29% | 24.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.25% | 37.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.94% | 6.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.61% | 9.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.45% | 12.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.87% | 18.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.21% | 27.51% |
| Category | COF | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Company | COF | CME |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United Sta… | CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. |
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AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
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