SPGI vs MCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
S&P Global and Moody's are the two companies that together control the global credit rating market — a regulatory duopoly with unparalleled pricing power and market share stability. Both have diversified into financial data and analytics (S&P Market Intelligence/Moody's Analytics) providing subscription revenue to offset credit rating cycle volatility. S&P is larger with the S&P 500 index licensing advantage; Moody's is slightly more focused on analytics software growth. Both are exceptional long-term compounders.
SPGI vs MCO is the credit rating and financial data behemoth with S&P 500 index licensing and IHS Markit data integration creating comprehensive financial information platform (S&P Global) versus the credit rating and financial risk analytics company with Moody's Analytics subscription software providing earnings stability alongside the rating duopoly (Moody's) — larger diversified financial information empire vs focused rating and risk analytics duopoly partner.
MCO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MCO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-2.85% vs -20.18%), though SPGI has the better forward P/E setup (21.88x vs 27.23x for MCO). MCO leads on both revenue growth (15.10%) and operating margin (49.47%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPGI (+17.25%) than for MCO (+8.84%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the larger and more diversified financial information company with S&P 500 index licensing creating passive revenue growth from every new dollar of index investing globally
- value S&P Global's IHS Markit integration adding commodity, automotive, and financial data businesses beyond credit ratings and indices
- want the credit rating duopoly plus a larger financial data platform providing multiple revenue streams beyond bond issuance cycles
- are comfortable with bond issuance cycle revenue volatility, IHS Markit integration execution complexity, and MSCI competition in international index licensing
- prefer the focused credit rating and financial risk analytics company with Moody's Analytics subscription software providing counterbalance to rating cycle volatility
- value Moody's simpler two-segment structure (MIS rating + MA analytics) as a cleaner credit rating plus growing software business
- want credit rating duopoly exposure with Moody's Analytics high-growth KYC, risk, and compliance software as the primary long-term growth driver
- are comfortable with MIS credit rating cyclicality, Moody's Analytics margin development investments, and AI disruption possibility for credit risk analysis (though regulatory protection is strong)
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.8 | 51.2 |
| AI ranki | #555 | #472 |
| Latest closei | $405.32 | $468.59 |
| 1M returni | -5.00% | -5.72% |
| 6M returni | -4.89% | +7.52% |
| 1Y returni | -20.18% | -2.85% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.98K (-20.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.72K (-2.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $9.67K (-3.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $13.55K (+35.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $38.18K (+281.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $51.18K (+411.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $130.56B | $89.18B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 26.96 | 32.67 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.88 | 27.23 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.99 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 9.14 | 11.70 |
| Analyst targeti | $519.30 | $560.48 |
| Target upsidei | +17.25% | +8.84% |
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 15.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 17.70% | 56.70% |
| EPS growthi | +17.70% | +56.70% |
| FCF margini | +33.79% | +31.61% |
| Operating margini | 44.79% | 49.47% |
| Profit margini | 30.54% | 34.25% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.26% | 76.93% |
| Return on equityi | 14.26% | 76.93% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.88% | 0.80% |
| Payout ratioi | 23.49% | 25.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.07 | 1.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 42.98 | 240.68 |
| Current ratioi | 0.95 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.83 | 1.04 |
Over the past year, SPGI and MCO have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.87), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.18% | -2.85% |
| CAGRi | -20.19% | -2.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.77% | 27.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.76 | -0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.96 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.48% | 23.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.81% | 13.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.91% | 9.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.82% | 11.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.27% | 8.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.77% | 13.07% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -6.13% | +31.17% |
| CAGRi | -1.26% | +5.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.21% | 26.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.10 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.14 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.76% | 41.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.15% | 13.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.69% | 12.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.83% | 16.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.27% | 9.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.77% | 15.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +251.79% | +369.46% |
| CAGRi | +13.41% | +16.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.22% | 27.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.76% | 42.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.15% | 13.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.75% | 9.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.69% | 12.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.19% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.46% | 23.46% |
| Category | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | S&P Global Inc. | Moody's Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | S&P Global provides credit ratings (S&P Ratings), financial market data and analytics (Market Intelligence), commodity and energy data (Commodity Insights), mobility data (Mobility), and the S&P 500/Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500 index is one of the world's most commercially valuable financial products — every index fund tracking it pays licensing fees to S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P Global acquired IHS Markit in 2022 (completed after regulatory approval), adding substantial financial data, commodity, and automotive data capabilities. S&P Global's revenue is approximately 50% recurring subscription-based and 50% transaction-based. | Moody's Corporation operates two segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS — credit ratings) and Moody's Analytics (MA — financial data, risk software, and research). MIS provides credit ratings on debt securities globally — the identical duopoly with S&P that controls approximately 80%+ of global credit ratings. Moody's Analytics provides financial research, risk management software, economic data, and regulatory compliance tools to financial institutions. MA's subscription revenue provides earnings stability between rating issuance cycles. |
| Investor focus | Investors track credit rating issuance volumes (tied to bond market activity), Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights subscription revenue growth, and Indices revenue from ETF AUM licensing. | Investors track MIS credit rating revenue vs bond issuance volumes, Moody's Analytics subscription ARR growth, and combined operating margin improvement. |
- S&P 500 index licensing is a financial toll booth: every dollar invested in S&P 500 index funds generates licensing fees for S&P Dow Jones Indices — the world's most passive investment products grow S&P's revenue automatically
- Credit rating regulatory moat: debt issuers must obtain ratings from NRSRO-approved agencies — S&P and Moody's duopoly controls most of the $150B+ global credit rating market
- IHS Markit integration created complementary financial data and commodity data businesses that expand S&P beyond ratings cyclicality
- Credit rating duopoly with S&P: Moody's controls approximately 40% of the global credit rating market alongside S&P — regulatory NRSRO designation makes this duopoly virtually impenetrable by new entrants
- Moody's Analytics subscriptions create revenue stability: MA's financial risk software and data subscriptions provide ~50% of Moody's revenue in a non-cyclical, recurring income stream
- KYC and compliance demand for Moody's data: financial institutions' regulatory requirements for risk monitoring and reporting drive demand for Moody's risk data products
- Credit rating revenue is cyclical with debt issuance: when bond market issuance falls (rising rate environments, deal freezes), S&P Ratings revenue falls — this occurred severely in 2022
- IHS Markit integration synergy realization has been a multi-year process — full cost savings and revenue synergies are still being captured
- MSCI competes with S&P Dow Jones Indices for international equity and fixed income index licensing — a competitive market for index IP
- Credit rating issuance cyclicality: Moody's Investors Service revenue is highly correlated with global bond issuance volumes — when rate hikes reduce debt issuance, MIS revenue falls sharply
- AI disruption risk to credit analysis: AI models that analyze credit risk could theoretically displace some manually intensive credit research — though regulatory requirements for NRSRO ratings protect the core rating business
- Moody's Analytics margin improvement is ongoing — building proprietary risk software at scale requires continued investment before achieving target margins
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