T vs TMUS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AT&T and T-Mobile offer two different approaches to US connectivity growth — AT&T is investing heavily in fiber broadband infrastructure to compete directly with cable, while T-Mobile leverages its 5G spectrum advantage to grow wireless market share and offer fixed wireless broadband without fiber investment. T has a higher dividend yield; TMUS has a faster earnings growth trajectory.
AT&T is the infrastructure investment play — committing billions to fiber that should generate long-term broadband returns — while T-Mobile is the wireless efficiency play, compounding subscriber gains and ARPU from its spectrum advantage; the choice depends on whether an investor wants yield today or growth compounding.
TMUS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. T leads on both 1-year return (-14.05%) and forward P/E quality (10.15x vs 12.56x for TMUS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. TMUS leads on both revenue growth (7.90%) and operating margin (25.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TMUS (+34.19%) than for T (+10.37%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a high-yield connectivity dividend with the fiber broadband growth story as an upside catalyst
- believe AT&T Fiber's market share gains against cable will drive sustained EBITDA growth
- prefer a higher near-term income yield while the long-term fiber investment thesis matures
- are comfortable with more elevated debt levels from the legacy media acquisition era
- want the US wireless market share leader with a proven 5G network advantage
- value free cash flow compounding from Sprint synergies driving buybacks and earnings growth
- prefer a lower-yield but faster-growing telecom over a higher-yield slower compounder
- believe FWA broadband can sustain T-Mobile's growth as wireless subscriber adds naturally moderate
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.9 | 51.0 |
| AI ranki | #1098 | #486 |
| Latest closei | $25.39 | $166.45 |
| 1M returni | +1.97% | -8.92% |
| 6M returni | -8.47% | -19.43% |
| 1Y returni | -14.05% | -30.49% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.7K (-13.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $6.97K (-30.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $20.79K (+107.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $13.85K (+38.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $38.71K (+287.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $37.89K (+278.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $178.23B | $194.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 8.58 | 18.97 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.15 | 12.56 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.64 | 3.38 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.71 | 3.39 |
| Analyst targeti | $28.71 | $243.38 |
| Target upsidei | +10.37% | +34.19% |
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.30% | 7.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 6.20% | 5.30% |
| EPS growthi | +6.20% | +5.30% |
| FCF margini | +7.97% | +12.30% |
| Operating margini | 24.79% | 25.22% |
| Profit margini | 16.94% | 11.46% |
| ROIC proxyi | 18.34% | 17.99% |
| Return on equityi | 18.34% | 17.99% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.27% | 2.30% |
| Payout ratioi | 36.63% | 41.21% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 129.05 | 214.03 |
| Current ratioi | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.60 | 0.58 |
Over the past year, T and TMUS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.62), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -13.05% | -30.31% |
| CAGRi | -13.07% | -30.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.36% | 29.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.60 | -1.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.83 | -1.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.86% | 30.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.05% | 30.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.17% | 16.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.82% | 18.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.13% | 10.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.57% | 11.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +57.95% | +35.49% |
| CAGRi | +9.58% | +6.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.84% | 25.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.01% | 38.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.28% | 38.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.18% | 9.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.97% | 14.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.41% | 11.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.69% | 11.63% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +59.39% | +270.59% |
| CAGRi | +4.77% | +14.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.08% | 26.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.13 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.18 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.43% | 38.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.28% | 38.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.31% | 8.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.93% | 12.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.41% | 11.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.46% | 14.58% |
| Category | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AT&T Inc. | T-Mobile US, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Telecom Services | Telecom Services |
| Core business | AT&T is a focused connectivity company following the WarnerMedia spin-off, now primarily competing in consumer and business wireless, and fiber broadband. AT&T Fiber — its consumer fiber internet service — is the key growth pillar, targeting 30M+ passings by 2025 and gaining market share from cable competitors. The wireless segment generates the majority of revenue, with postpaid net adds competitive with T-Mobile in recent periods. | T-Mobile is the US wireless market leader in postpaid subscriber adds, known for its 5G network built on Sprint's 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum. Its fixed wireless access broadband product is now serving 5M+ customers, competing with cable in markets where T-Mobile lacks fiber infrastructure. The company is focused on ARPU expansion as its subscriber growth engine matures, and is increasingly targeting enterprise wireless clients. |
| Investor focus | Investors track postpaid wireless net adds, AT&T Fiber net adds and penetration, free cash flow per share against the dividend, and debt reduction trajectory from the WarnerMedia era. | Investors track postpaid phone net adds as a market share indicator, FWA broadband subscriber growth, ARPU expansion (the transition from value to premium positioning), and free cash flow compounding from Sprint synergy delivery. |
- AT&T Fiber competitive momentum gaining broadband share from Comcast and Charter
- Simplified post-WarnerMedia business model focused on connectivity
- Strong free cash flow generation supporting dividend coverage and debt paydown
- Dominant 5G mid-band coverage giving best-in-class network speed and reliability
- FWA broadband serving 5M+ homes providing a broadband revenue stream without fiber investment
- Sprint merger synergies exceeded targets, driving strong free cash flow and buyback capacity
- Heavy legacy debt limits capital return flexibility and financial optionality
- Fiber build requires sustained capex investment over multiple years
- DirecTV satellite video decline is an ongoing headwind until divested or wound down
- Subscriber growth will naturally slow as the easiest market share gains have been captured
- ARPU expansion requires successfully moving up-market against entrenched premium carrier perceptions
- FWA broadband faces long-term capacity constraints in high-density markets as users increase data consumption
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