UPS vs FDX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UPS and FedEx are the two dominant US parcel carriers, both navigating post-pandemic volume normalization while pursuing structural cost improvements. UPS is focused on revenue quality (higher-margin healthcare and B2B), while FedEx is focused on cost reduction through its DRIVE network integration. UPS offers a higher dividend yield; FedEx offers more margin expansion upside.
UPS suits income investors who want the highest-yielding industrial dividend, while FedEx suits those who see DRIVE cost savings as an underappreciated margin expansion catalyst trading at a lower entry multiple.
FDX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FDX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.06% vs +16.47%), though UPS has the better forward P/E setup (13.04x vs 15.88x for FDX). FDX leads on both revenue growth (12.50%) and operating margin (11.13%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +10.20% for UPS and +7.70% for FDX.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the highest dividend yield in large-cap parcel delivery logistics
- value the 'better not bigger' revenue quality strategy targeting healthcare and B2B
- prefer a simpler, more established integrated network over a transformation-in-progress
- are comfortable with Amazon insourcing risk in exchange for premium income
- believe the DRIVE integration will close the historical margin gap with UPS
- want exposure to FedEx Express international air freight without Amazon customer concentration risk
- prefer to buy a logistics transformation at a lower P/E multiple before margin expansion
- are comfortable with near-term integration execution risk for potential significant operating leverage
| Metric | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 44.0 |
| AI ranki | #949 | #836 |
| Latest closei | $99.06 | $303.65 |
| 1M returni | -3.69% | -7.53% |
| 6M returni | +2.59% | -14.73% |
| 1Y returni | +16.47% | +34.06% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.65K (+16.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.41K (+34.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $7.19K (-28.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $13.96K (+39.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $17.96K (+79.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $24.65K (+146.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $89.61B | $78.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.58 | 17.83 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.04 | 15.88 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.92 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| Analyst targeti | $116.08 | $356.37 |
| Target upsidei | +10.20% | +7.70% |
| Metric | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.60% | 12.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -53.00% | -4.30% |
| EPS growthi | -53.00% | -4.30% |
| FCF margini | +6.18% | +5.97% |
| Operating margini | 9.05% | 11.13% |
| Profit margini | 5.08% | 4.68% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.60% | 14.85% |
| Return on equityi | 29.60% | 14.85% |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.23% | 1.47% |
| Payout ratioi | 121.93% | 31.27% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.04 | 1.36 |
| Debt/equityi | 189.90 | 135.70 |
| Current ratioi | 1.18 | 1.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.05 | 1.39 |
Over the past year, UPS and FDX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.49), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +16.47% | +34.06% |
| CAGRi | +16.48% | +34.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.90% | 33.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.92 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.00% | 26.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.45% | 26.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.97% | 8.54% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.34% | 12.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.47% | 17.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.66% | 21.21% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -38.98% | +29.89% |
| CAGRi | -9.42% | +5.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.93% | 33.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.35 | 0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.46 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.70% | 45.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.46% | 26.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.58% | 14.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.22% | 17.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.11% | 21.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.40% | 25.25% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +25.73% | +114.48% |
| CAGRi | +2.32% | +7.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.99% | 33.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.09 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.70% | 65.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.46% | 26.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.73% | 19.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.36% | 24.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.11% | 21.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.40% | 25.25% |
| Category | UPS | FDX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | United Parcel Service, Inc. | FedEx Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Integrated Freight & Logistics |
| Core business | UPS is the world's largest package delivery company, operating an integrated air and ground network in over 220 countries. Its US Domestic Package segment is the largest revenue driver, followed by International Package (high-margin) and Supply Chain Solutions. UPS has pursued a 'better not bigger' strategy under CEO Carol Tomé, targeting higher-margin B2B and healthcare shipments over commodity e-commerce volume. | FedEx is a global logistics and package delivery company with three main segments: FedEx Express (air freight), FedEx Ground (home and B2B ground delivery), and FedEx Freight (less-than-truckload). The ongoing 'DRIVE' transformation program is integrating Express and Ground operations into a single unified network to reduce structural costs. FedEx has no equivalent in-house brand to Amazon, giving it more diversified customer exposure than UPS. |
| Investor focus | Investors track revenue per piece (pricing power), volume trends by segment, operating margin in US Domestic, and dividend sustainability — UPS pays one of the highest yields among blue-chip industrials. | Investors track the DRIVE cost savings program milestones, operating margin improvement in FedEx Express (historically below UPS), volume trends in Ground vs Express, and the pace of buybacks under the capital return program. |
- Integrated air-ground network is nearly impossible to replicate at UPS's scale
- Healthcare logistics segment provides high-margin, less cyclical revenue
- Strong dividend history with a commitment to shareholder returns
- DRIVE transformation targeting $4B+ in structural cost savings is a multi-year margin catalyst
- FedEx Express international network is a high-margin asset with global reach
- No single customer dominance — Amazon is a smaller share of FedEx revenue than UPS
- Volume declines as e-commerce growth normalized post-pandemic
- Amazon insourcing last-mile delivery is reducing a major customer's dependency on UPS
- Labor costs — UPS drivers are among the highest-paid in logistics after 2023 contract
- Express segment margin has lagged Ground and peers due to fixed cost structure
- Network integration (Express + Ground) creates execution complexity during transformation
- Industrial and B2B volume is sensitive to economic slowdowns
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