LIN vs APD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Linde and Air Products are the two premier industrial gas companies with very different risk-return profiles. Linde is the disciplined compounder — focused on high-return projects, consistent margin expansion, and superior return on capital. Air Products is the ambitious bet — committed to being the dominant clean hydrogen infrastructure company, with higher capital risk but potentially much larger upside if the hydrogen economy scales.
Linde is the quality compounder for investors who want reliable industrial gas exposure; Air Products is the higher-risk bet on being the infrastructure anchor of the clean hydrogen economy — choose based on risk tolerance and conviction in hydrogen demand.
APD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. APD leads on both 1-year return (-2.83%) and forward P/E quality (20.19x vs 25.01x for LIN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LIN leads on both revenue growth (9.30%) and operating margin (28.12%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for APD (+18.42%) than for LIN (+11.79%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the highest-quality industrial gas franchise with superior return on capital
- value disciplined capital allocation — Linde walks away from low-return projects
- prefer consistent earnings growth from long-term take-or-pay contracts over speculative project wins
- are comfortable paying a premium multiple for best-in-class execution
- believe clean hydrogen infrastructure is a critical energy transition asset class
- see NEOM and blue hydrogen projects as creating a uniquely defensible long-term competitive position
- want a higher dividend yield while waiting for project investments to generate returns
- are comfortable with higher capital deployment risk for potentially outsized long-term returns
| Metric | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.7 | 50.5 |
| AI ranki | #439 | #518 |
| Latest closei | $460.40 | $284.18 |
| 1M returni | -4.31% | -6.28% |
| 6M returni | -5.68% | +1.13% |
| 1Y returni | -3.28% | -2.83% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.61K (-3.9%) started 2025-09-19 | $9.79K (-2.1%) started 2025-09-19 |
| 5Y ago | $16.78K (+67.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $13.32K (+33.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $52.86K (+428.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $32.73K (+227.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $225.65B | $64.9B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.54 | 31.35 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.01 | 20.19 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.06 | 6.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $547.24 | $345.11 |
| Target upsidei | +11.79% | +18.42% |
| Metric | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 4.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.30% | 9.70% |
| EPS growthi | +11.30% | +9.70% |
| FCF margini | +11.74% | -11.88% |
| Operating margini | 28.12% | 25.54% |
| Profit margini | 20.43% | -0.38% |
| ROIC proxyi | 18.40% | 0.02% |
| Return on equityi | 18.40% | 0.02% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.31% | 2.47% |
| Payout ratioi | 40.00% | 75.66% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| Debt/equityi | 68.95 | 110.09 |
| Current ratioi | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.68 | 0.75 |
Over the past year, LIN and APD have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -3.89% | -2.06% |
| CAGRi | -3.90% | -2.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.97% | 26.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.35 | -0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.48 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.87% | 20.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.78% | 9.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.33% | 6.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.13% | 8.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.95% | 9.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.34% | 10.13% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +59.81% | +20.82% |
| CAGRi | +9.84% | +3.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.95% | 26.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.49 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.82% | 31.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.78% | 15.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.89% | 13.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.83% | 15.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.26% | 15.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.95% | 16.51% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +352.05% | +158.73% |
| CAGRi | +16.29% | +9.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.92% | 25.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.59% | 31.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.78% | 15.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.09% | 9.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.15% | 12.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.28% | 15.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.59% | 19.77% |
| Category | LIN | APD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Linde plc | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Specialty Chemicals | Specialty Chemicals |
| Core business | Linde is the world's largest industrial gas company by market cap and revenue, supplying oxygen, nitrogen, argon, hydrogen, and other gases to industries including healthcare, manufacturing, food and beverage, and electronics. Its business model is anchored by long-term take-or-pay contracts with on-site production at customer facilities, creating highly predictable cash flows. Linde is selective about clean hydrogen investments, prioritizing high-return contracted projects over speculative bets. | Air Products is the world's largest hydrogen producer and a leading industrial gas company, supplying industrial gases globally. Under its prior CEO, Air Products aggressively committed to mega-scale green and blue hydrogen projects (NEOM in Saudi Arabia, World Energy blue hydrogen) totaling $15B+ in capital commitments. New CEO Eduardo Menezes is reviewing the project portfolio to prioritize return on capital, leading to a strategic reset that investors are evaluating. |
| Investor focus | Investors track volume and price growth across end markets, operating margin expansion through pricing and productivity, project backlog (especially clean energy projects), and return on capital employed — which Linde has consistently improved. | Investors track the new CEO's strategic review outcomes (project confirmations or cancellations), dividend sustainability, the NEOM green hydrogen megaproject progress and economics, and return on invested capital as the hydrogen strategy matures. |
- World's largest industrial gas franchise with unmatched scale in distribution and production
- Long-term take-or-pay contracts provide 5-8 year revenue visibility with inflation pass-throughs
- Disciplined capital allocation — Linde rejects low-return projects that peers may accept
- World's largest hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure
- NEOM green hydrogen project could position APD as the dominant player in global clean hydrogen exports
- Long history of take-or-pay industrial gas contracts providing earnings stability
- Industrial gas demand is tied to manufacturing activity which can slow in recessions
- Premium valuation relative to peers requires sustained execution to justify
- Clean hydrogen investment remains limited relative to APD, reducing long-term optionality in that market
- Mega-project capital commitments under prior CEO may generate below-target returns
- NEOM hydrogen project economics remain uncertain with green hydrogen pricing unclear
- Dividend sustainability requires confirmation given the heavy near-term capex program
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