GXO vs XPO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GXO and XPO were once part of the same company before their separation — GXO as the world's largest pure-play contract logistics operator and XPO as a leading North American LTL freight carrier. Both serve B2B supply chain needs but through fundamentally different business models and economic drivers.
GXO vs XPO contrasts outsourced warehouse fulfillment automation against LTL freight network operations, representing two distinct segments of the global supply chain services industry.
XPO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XPO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+32.37% vs -10.15%), though GXO has the better forward P/E setup (13.06x vs 28.90x for XPO). XPO leads on both revenue growth (13.20%) and operating margin (12.31%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GXO (+48.55%) than for XPO (+25.14%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to technology-enabled contract logistics and e-commerce fulfillment automation
- Value GXO's long-term customer contracts with major retailers and manufacturers as revenue predictability
- Believe outsourced logistics will continue growing as companies focus on core competencies and outsource warehousing
- See the North American LTL market benefiting from Yellow's exit and ongoing capacity discipline
- Want exposure to a high-barrier freight network business with structural pricing power
- Value XPO's LTL margin improvement potential as it captures market share and improves operating efficiency
| Metric | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.0 | 73.7 |
| AI ranki | #2669 | #28 |
| Latest closei | $45.92 | $174.25 |
| 1M returni | -0.97% | -11.74% |
| 6M returni | -10.43% | -7.00% |
| 1Y returni | -10.15% | +32.37% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.98K (-10.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.24K (+32.4%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $5.75K (-42.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $35.46K (+254.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $8.43K (-15.7%) started 2021-07-22 | $144.69K (+1346.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.3B | $21.78B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 40.93 | 54.86 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.06 | 28.90 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.78 | 2.98 |
| Analyst targeti | $68.71 | $232.74 |
| Target upsidei | +48.55% | +25.14% |
| Metric | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.30% | 13.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.00% | 52.80% |
| EPS growthi | -4.00% | +52.80% |
| FCF margini | +2.50% | +5.53% |
| Operating margini | 2.99% | 12.31% |
| Profit margini | 0.96% | 4.71% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.50% | 21.59% |
| Return on equityi | 4.50% | 21.59% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.55 | 1.72 |
| Debt/equityi | 202.48 | 206.17 |
| Current ratioi | 0.79 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.70 | 0.87 |
Over the past year, GXO and XPO have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.52), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.15% | +32.37% |
| CAGRi | -10.16% | +32.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.33% | 42.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.23 | 1.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.83% | 23.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.99% | 23.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.07% | 7.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.49% | 8.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.70% | 8.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.04% | 12.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -42.46% | +254.57% |
| CAGRi | -10.48% | +28.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.38% | 47.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.16 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | 1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 69.56% | 51.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 55.66% | 23.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.77% | 16.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.70% | 21.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.70% | 13.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.41% | 18.64% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -15.74% | +1346.94% |
| CAGRi | -3.27% | +30.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.20% | 47.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.04 | 0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.05 | 1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 69.56% | 64.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 55.66% | 23.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.46% | 17.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.94% | 24.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.70% | 26.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.41% | 37.52% |
| Category | GXO | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | GXO Logistics, Inc. | XPO, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Trucking |
| Core business | GXO Logistics is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics company, operating outsourced warehousing and distribution facilities for major retailers and manufacturers, with a focus on technology-enabled, automated fulfillment operations. | XPO operates one of the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) freight networks in North America, providing time-definite freight transportation for businesses shipping goods in partial truckloads across its owned terminal network. |
| Investor focus | Investors track GXO's organic revenue growth, new contract wins, automation penetration in its warehouse network, and EBITDA margin expansion as technology drives efficiency gains in fulfillment operations. | Investors track XPO's LTL yield (revenue per hundredweight), tonnage trends, OR (operating ratio), and market share capture in the North American LTL duopoly market following Yellow's 2023 collapse. |
- World's largest pure-play contract logistics company with scale advantages in technology investment and customer relationships
- Automation and robotics deployment in warehouses provides a competitive differentiation and efficiency advantage
- Long-term customer contracts with Fortune 500 retailers and manufacturers provide revenue visibility
- Significant beneficiary of Yellow Corporation's 2023 bankruptcy as its large LTL network closed, opening market share opportunities for remaining carriers
- LTL freight is a high-barrier network business with structural pricing power as consolidation reduces capacity
- Strong balance of pricing discipline and service investment in a recovering LTL market
- Contract logistics is a relatively low-margin, capital-intensive business requiring continuous reinvestment in facilities and technology
- Customer concentration risk as large contracts with top clients represent significant revenue share
- Economic slowdowns reduce e-commerce volumes that drive much of GXO's fulfillment demand
- LTL freight volumes are cyclical and sensitive to industrial production and manufacturing activity
- Integration of Yellow network acquisition adds terminals but also operational complexity
- Competition from FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, and Saia for the market share opened by Yellow's exit
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