GNL vs WM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Global Net Lease and Waste Management are both defensive businesses with high dividend yields, but they are fundamentally different investments. GNL is a net lease REIT collecting rent from commercial tenants. WM is an operationally complex monopoly providing essential waste disposal services with irreplaceable landfill infrastructure. WM's landfill moat and pricing power make it one of the highest-quality industrial companies; GNL is a higher-yield REIT with more tenant and governance complexity.
GNL vs WM is the net lease commercial real estate REIT collecting triple-net rents from US and European commercial tenants with high current dividend yield (GNL) versus the largest North American solid waste company with irreplaceable landfill monopolies and above-inflation pricing power on essential services (Waste Management) — real estate income vs waste infrastructure monopoly compounding.
WM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GNL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+20.04% vs -1.08%), though WM has the better forward P/E setup (24.09x vs -70.77x for GNL). On fundamentals, WM is growing revenue faster (4.00%), while GNL maintains the higher operating margin (31.27%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WM (+18.33%) than for GNL (+10.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer high current dividend yield from triple net lease commercial real estate with tenants covering operating costs
- value diversified net lease exposure across US and European office, industrial, and retail properties
- want high-income REIT exposure and accept higher complexity vs simpler net lease peers like NNN or Realty Income
- are comfortable with office lease rollover risk in remote work environment, European currency and economic exposure, and non-traded REIT history governance concerns
- prefer the essential services monopoly with irreplaceable landfill infrastructure creating geographic pricing power across North America
- value WM's above-inflation pricing consistency — decades of recurring waste disposal price increases without meaningful customer loss
- want defensive industrial compounder with recession-resilient waste volume and transformation toward sustainability revenue streams
- are comfortable with waste volume cyclicality in industrial downturns, recycling commodity price variability, and labor/fuel cost inflation
| Metric | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.8 | 51.7 |
| AI ranki | #3065 | #442 |
| Latest closei | $8.89 | $213.33 |
| 1M returni | +0.57% | -4.58% |
| 6M returni | -3.21% | -8.77% |
| 1Y returni | +20.04% | -1.08% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.12K (+31.2%) started 2025-09-17 | $9.88K (-1.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $22.65K (+126.5%) started 2021-09-17 | $15.61K (+56.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $77.75K (+677.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $46.68K (+366.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.13B | $87.8B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 31.07 |
| Forward P/Ei | -70.77 | 24.09 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 4.15 |
| EV/Revenuei | 9.16 | 4.31 |
| Analyst targeti | $10.14 | $259.92 |
| Target upsidei | +10.25% | +18.33% |
| Metric | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -10.00% | 4.00% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 8.30% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +8.30% |
| FCF margini | +79.64% | +9.15% |
| Operating margini | 31.27% | 18.99% |
| Profit margini | -2.94% | 11.12% |
| ROIC proxyi | -0.96% | 29.84% |
| Return on equityi | -0.96% | 29.84% |
| Dividend yieldi | 8.32% | 1.72% |
| Payout ratioi | 1243.33% | 50.07% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| Debt/equityi | 161.70 | 235.30 |
| Current ratioi | 5.63 | 0.91 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.88 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, GNL and WM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.17), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +20.04% | -1.20% |
| CAGRi | +20.05% | -1.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.36% | 20.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | -0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | -0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 10.35% | 14.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.00% | 13.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.65% | 5.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.49% | 7.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.78% | 4.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.52% | 8.75% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -0.01% | +47.59% |
| CAGRi | -0.00% | +8.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.85% | 19.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.61% | 18.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.98% | 13.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.08% | 5.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.85% | 7.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.27% | 8.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.52% | 11.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +9.77% | +295.25% |
| CAGRi | +0.94% | +14.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.20% | 19.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.08 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.38% | 30.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.81% | 13.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.76% | 5.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.06% | 7.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.07% | 11.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 44.53% | 16.97% |
| Category | GNL | WM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Global Net Lease, Inc. | Waste Management, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Industrials |
| Industry | REIT - Diversified | Waste Management |
| Core business | Global Net Lease is a non-traded-to-listed REIT that owns a diversified portfolio of single-tenant net lease commercial real estate across the US and Europe — including office, industrial, and retail properties leased to investment-grade tenants on long-term triple net leases. Net leases require tenants to pay property taxes, insurance, and maintenance — reducing landlord operational responsibilities. GNL merged with The Necessity Retail REIT in 2023, creating a larger combined portfolio. GNL emphasizes high dividend yield from net lease cash flows. | Waste Management is the largest solid waste collection and disposal company in North America, with an irreplaceable network of landfills, transfer stations, recycling facilities, and waste-to-energy plants. WM's landfills are its primary competitive moat — environmental permitting for new landfills is extraordinarily difficult, making existing landfills irreplaceable assets with pricing power. WM serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the US and Canada with recurring subscription-based waste pickup and disposal services. |
| Investor focus | Investors track same-store NOI growth, weighted average lease term remaining, tenant credit quality, portfolio occupancy, and dividend coverage ratio. | Investors track volume growth, pricing power vs inflation, landfill airspace remaining, recycling profitability, and sustainability services revenue from landfill gas capture. |
- Triple net lease structure minimizes landlord operating costs — tenants cover taxes, insurance, and maintenance, making GNL's cash flows more predictable than gross lease REITs
- Diversified tenant base across US and European markets reduces geographic concentration risk
- High dividend yield compared to equity REITs — net lease structures prioritize distributing cash flows to shareholders
- Landfill network is irreplaceable — WM owns permitted landfills that cannot be replicated due to NIMBY opposition and environmental permitting barriers, creating a natural geographic monopoly
- Pricing power consistently above inflation — waste disposal services are essential and WM passes through pricing increases routinely without customer attrition
- Sustainability transformation: WM's landfill gas-to-energy, recycling infrastructure, and electric fleet investments create ESG revenue streams while positioning WM for long-term waste economics
- GNL's office exposure in a post-pandemic remote work environment creates vacancy risk — office net lease tenants may not renew when leases expire
- European real estate exposure adds currency risk and country-specific economic risk vs US-only net lease peers (NNN, O)
- GNL's history as a non-traded REIT with high fees raises governance concerns vs transparent publicly-traded net lease peers
- Waste volume is economically sensitive — industrial and construction waste volumes decline during economic downturns reducing WM collection volumes
- Recycling commodity prices are volatile — recycled material prices fluctuate with commodity markets, creating recycling margin variability
- Labor and fuel costs are WM's largest variable costs — driver shortages and diesel prices affect margins
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