WM vs RSG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
WM and RSG are the two largest US waste management companies operating essentially the same business model — integrated collection, transfer, and landfill disposal with geographic monopoly characteristics. Both have exceptional pricing power, consistent dividend growth, and recession-resistant demand. WM is somewhat larger with a more advanced renewable natural gas program. RSG has similar geographic penetration and comparable financial characteristics. The choice between them is often marginal — both are quality defensive long-term holdings.
WM vs RSG — Waste Management (the US waste management leader with 260+ landfills, renewable natural gas program, recycling automation investment, and local landfill monopoly pricing power creating consistent above-CPI rate increases) versus Republic Services (the second-largest US waste management company with identical integrated waste business model, 200+ landfills, Blue Planet sustainability program, and comparable pricing power).
WM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WM leads on both 1-year return (+18.99%) and forward P/E quality (24.09x vs 29.79x for RSG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. RSG leads on both revenue growth (4.60%) and operating margin (20.43%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WM (+18.33%) than for RSG (+1.30%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- see WM's renewable natural gas program as a differentiating sustainability revenue stream that provides upside beyond the base waste business
- value WM's larger landfill network as providing slightly stronger geographic coverage and scale for technology investment in recycling automation
- prefer the market leader in defensive waste management with the longest track record and broadest geographic footprint
- are comfortable with recycling commodity price volatility, capital-intensive automation investment, and environmental regulation evolution
- see RSG's Blue Planet sustainability program as aligning with ESG investor mandates — potentially broadening institutional investor demand for RSG's shares
- prefer RSG at a potential valuation discount to WM as the #2 player with comparable business model characteristics at a smaller market cap
- value comparable dividend growth track record and pricing power to WM at potentially lower purchase price
- are comfortable with slightly smaller RNG program vs WM and the market-follower rather than market-leader positioning in waste infrastructure
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.7 | 50.5 |
| AI ranki | #326 | #528 |
| Latest closei | $237.71 | $245.97 |
| 1M returni | +16.27% | +17.37% |
| 3M returni | +4.98% | +17.34% |
| 6M returni | +4.33% | +19.08% |
| 1Y returni | +18.99% | +18.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.08K (+20.8%) started 2025-11-03 | $11.98K (+19.8%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $16.64K (+66.4%) started 2021-11-03 | $20.36K (+103.6%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $51.68K (+416.8%) started 2016-11-03 | $64.6K (+546.0%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $87.8B | $73.63B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.07 | 34.11 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.09 | 29.79 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.15 | 4.89 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.31 | 5.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $259.92 | $243.58 |
| Target upsidei | +18.33% | +1.30% |
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.00% | 4.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 8.30% | 5.10% |
| EPS growthi | +8.30% | +5.10% |
| FCF margini | +9.15% | +11.50% |
| Operating margini | 18.99% | 20.43% |
| Profit margini | 11.12% | 12.94% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.84% | 18.15% |
| Return on equityi | 29.84% | 18.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.72% | 1.11% |
| Payout ratioi | 48.03% | 35.25% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Debt/equityi | 235.30 | 118.80 |
| Current ratioi | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.58 |
Over the past year, WM and RSG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.83), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +20.81% | +19.82% |
| CAGRi | +20.88% | +19.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.30% | 20.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.79 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.20 | 1.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.10% | 14.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.57% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.36% | 5.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.08% | 6.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.52% | 3.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.03% | 5.43% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +57.26% | +94.38% |
| CAGRi | +9.48% | +14.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.37% | 18.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.72% | 23.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.57% | 4.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.13% | 7.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.50% | 9.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 5.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.60% | 9.09% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +337.51% | +455.27% |
| CAGRi | +15.91% | +18.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.92% | 19.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 1.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.07% | 34.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.57% | 4.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.15% | 5.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.18% | 8.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.12% | 12.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.97% | 17.30% |
| Category | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Waste Management, Inc. | Republic Services, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Waste Management | Waste Management |
| Core business | Waste Management is the largest US waste collection and disposal company with 260+ landfills, 340+ transfer stations, and 100+ recycling facilities. WM's integrated waste system captures waste from collection (trucks) through transfer stations to landfills — one of the most defensible business models with geographic monopoly characteristics. WM generates landfill gas (methane from decomposing waste) and has been converting it to renewable natural gas (RNG) — sold to utilities and transportation customers. WM acquired Advanced Disposal Services in 2020 and is investing heavily in recycling automation. | Republic Services is the second-largest US waste collection and disposal company behind Waste Management. RSG operates 200+ landfills, 250+ transfer stations, and 80+ recycling facilities. RSG acquired US LBM Holdings' environmental services business. Republic Services competes directly with WM in most geographic markets — both companies operate the same integrated waste model (collection → transfer stations → landfills). RSG has been investing in recycling infrastructure and sustainability initiatives (Blue Planet sustainability program, renewable energy from landfill gas) similar to WM. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on WM's pricing power (annual rate increases), landfill pricing and volume, recycling profitability improvement, and renewable natural gas revenue from landfill gas extraction. | Investors focus on RSG's organic revenue growth, pricing above CPI, acquisition integration, recycling margin improvement, and sustainability-linked investor interest in the waste-to-resource narrative. |
- Landfill monopoly economics: landfills are geographically irreplaceable with strict permitting — once built, a landfill has a local monopoly that pricing power can exploit without meaningful competitive threat
- Annual pricing power: WM regularly increases service pricing 3-5% annually above CPI — essential service demand (trash must be collected) combined with local monopoly enables systematic above-inflation pricing
- Renewable natural gas upside: WM's landfills produce billions of cubic feet of methane annually — converting this to RNG and selling to transportation or utility buyers provides growing, high-margin revenue from a waste byproduct
- Same landfill geographic monopoly economics as WM: RSG's 200+ landfills provide the same pricing power and competitive protection as WM — trash disposal requires physical landfill access that's locally irreplaceable
- Consistent pricing above inflation track record: RSG has consistently achieved above-CPI price increases across its service areas — essential service demand enables systematic pricing power
- Blue Planet sustainability program: RSG's sustainability commitment (recycling investment, renewable energy, carbon reduction) aligns with ESG investor mandates — potentially broadening the investor base for waste infrastructure investments
- Recycling commodity price volatility: recycling revenue depends on commodity prices for paper, plastic, and metals — commodity price cycles create recycling financial variability
- Capital-intensive automation investment required for recycling profitability: WM must invest significant capital in recycling facility automation (optical sorters, AI sorting) to improve recycling margins as material quality requirements tighten
- Regulatory risk for landfill operations: EPA and state environmental regulations for landfill operations continue to evolve — potential stricter methane capture requirements or landfill closure regulations create compliance costs
- Slightly smaller scale vs WM creating competitive disadvantage in some markets: WM's larger landfill network and geographic coverage provides some competitive advantages in markets where both overlap
- Recycling infrastructure investment required matching WM's automation pace: RSG must invest at comparable pace to WM in recycling automation or risk falling behind in recycling profitability improvement
- Lower renewable natural gas profile vs WM: WM has more aggressively developed its RNG program from landfill gas — RSG's RNG contribution to earnings is currently more modest than WM's
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