WM vs RSG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
WM (Waste Management) and RSG (Republic Services) are effectively a U.S. solid waste duopoly — both collecting garbage, operating landfills, and growing environmental services through acquisitions. Waste Management is larger with renewable energy from landfill methane; Republic Services is slightly smaller with its own environmental solutions expansion. Both trade as defensive, inflation-resilient businesses with consistent dividend growth.
WM vs RSG is the U.S. solid waste duopoly — both defensive businesses with pricing power from finite landfill capacity, essential service demand stability, and disciplined capital allocation — differentiated mainly by scale, geography, and the adjacency businesses each has chosen (RNG for WM, environmental solutions for RSG).
WM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WM leads on both 1-year return (+4.91%) and forward P/E quality (24.09x vs 26.91x for RSG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. RSG leads on both revenue growth (4.60%) and operating margin (20.43%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WM (+18.33%) than for RSG (+12.74%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest U.S. solid waste company with the broadest national footprint, renewable natural gas investment upside, and the Stericycle medical waste diversification
- Value Waste Management's renewable energy strategy — converting landfill methane to compressed natural gas creates an additional revenue stream from the company's waste assets
- Prefer the #1 scale position in solid waste as providing maximum route density advantages and the largest landfill capacity portfolio
- Want the solid waste duopoly's #2 company with competitive economics, geographic strengths in the Southeast and Southwest, and Clean Earth environmental solutions expansion
- Value Republic Services' environmental solutions business as growing non-solid-waste revenue in industrial hazardous waste management with different growth characteristics
- Prefer RSG's arguably simpler corporate structure versus WM's Stericycle integration complexity, at similar valuation and yield characteristics
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.0 | 52.3 |
| AI ranki | #414 | #393 |
| Latest closei | $224.19 | $229.65 |
| 1M returni | +3.19% | +2.96% |
| 3M returni | -7.46% | +2.29% |
| 6M returni | +0.05% | +9.53% |
| 1Y returni | +4.91% | +3.90% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.51K (+5.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.52K (+5.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $15.94K (+59.4%) started 2021-10-18 | $19.76K (+97.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $49.34K (+393.4%) started 2016-10-17 | $61.37K (+513.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $87.8B | $66.41B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.07 | 30.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.09 | 26.91 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.15 | 4.89 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.31 | 4.77 |
| Analyst targeti | $259.92 | $244.50 |
| Target upsidei | +18.33% | +12.74% |
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.00% | 4.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 8.30% | 5.10% |
| EPS growthi | +8.30% | +5.10% |
| FCF margini | +9.15% | +11.50% |
| Operating margini | 18.99% | 20.43% |
| Profit margini | 11.12% | 12.94% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.84% | 18.15% |
| Return on equityi | 29.84% | 18.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.72% | 1.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 50.14% | 35.46% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Debt/equityi | 235.30 | 118.80 |
| Current ratioi | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.58 |
Over the past year, WM and RSG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.82), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +5.11% | +5.23% |
| CAGRi | +5.12% | +5.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.58% | 19.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.13 | 0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.18 | 0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.10% | 14.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.05% | 1.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.52% | 6.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.15% | 6.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.46% | 3.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.75% | 7.13% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +50.73% | +88.65% |
| CAGRi | +8.56% | +13.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.14% | 18.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.72% | 23.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.05% | 11.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.11% | 7.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.49% | 9.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 5.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.60% | 9.09% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +317.70% | +427.53% |
| CAGRi | +15.37% | +18.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.79% | 19.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.07% | 34.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.05% | 11.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.13% | 5.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.17% | 8.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.12% | 12.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.97% | 17.30% |
| Category | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Waste Management, Inc. | Republic Services, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Waste Management | Waste Management |
| Core business | Waste Management is the largest U.S. solid waste company, operating residential and commercial garbage collection, transfer stations, landfills, and recycling — plus growing renewable natural gas (RNG) generation from landfill methane and hazardous waste management through its Stericycle acquisition. | Republic Services is the second-largest U.S. solid waste company, operating residential and commercial collection, transfer stations, landfills, and recycling — plus a growing environmental solutions business serving industrial and hazardous waste customers through its Clean Earth acquisition. |
| Investor focus | Investors track WM's core solid waste volume and yield (price increases), recycling margins, renewable natural gas (RNG) investment returns, and the integration of Stericycle's medical waste and secure document destruction business. | Investors track Republic's solid waste volume and yield, environmental solutions revenue growth, core price increase execution, and operating leverage as the company scales its non-landfill environmental services business alongside core solid waste. |
- Market share leadership as the largest U.S. solid waste company with the most extensive landfill and collection route network across all 50 states
- Pricing power in an essential service — landfill capacity is a finite natural asset with significant regulatory barriers to new landfill permitting, enabling pricing above inflation over time
- Renewable natural gas from landfill methane captures economic value from waste decomposition — WM has invested billions in RNG production from its landfills as an energy revenue stream
- Scale advantages as #2 in solid waste with route density creating operating efficiency in collection operations — shared collection routes, transfer stations, and disposal cells reduce per-unit cost
- Pricing power from the same finite landfill capacity dynamics as WM — RSG can consistently price above inflation in markets where it has disposal capacity advantage
- Environmental solutions expansion through Clean Earth acquisition diversifies RSG beyond traditional solid waste into industrial hazardous waste management
- Stericycle acquisition adds complexity — integrating the specialized medical waste and secure document destruction business requires execution in a different regulatory environment than solid waste
- Recycling market is volatile — commodity prices for recyclable materials (paper, plastic, aluminum) affect recycling revenue significantly
- Landfill capacity is a finite asset — while pricing power from scarcity is positive, WM must develop new disposal capacity through alternative waste processing technologies as landfills fill
- Concentrated geographic markets mean RSG has stronger positions in some regions (Southeast, Southwest) and less presence in others — investors benefit from knowing specific market strengths
- Industrial hazardous waste through Clean Earth is a different and more cyclically sensitive business than residential and commercial solid waste
- Competition with WM and regional solid waste operators can occasionally be intense — while largely oligopolistic nationally, local market competition for large commercial and municipal contracts can be competitive
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