CSX vs CAT Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare CSX's eastern rail freight volumes against Caterpillar's construction and mining equipment demand as industrial economy signals.
Use this CSX vs Caterpillar comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
CAT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+96.07% vs +53.07%), though CSX has the better forward P/E setup (22.58x vs 24.75x for CAT). On fundamentals, CAT is growing revenue faster (24.00%), while CSX maintains the higher operating margin (38.42%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAT (+21.91%) than for CSX (+3.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.9 | 69.1 |
| AI ranki | #280 | #45 |
| Latest closei | $49.41 | $813.94 |
| 1M returni | -3.35% | -6.56% |
| 6M returni | +20.07% | +15.28% |
| 1Y returni | +53.07% | +96.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.13K (+51.3%) started 2025-09-04 | $19.37K (+93.7%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $17.23K (+72.3%) started 2021-09-07 | $45.38K (+353.8%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $66.93K (+569.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $153.21K (+1432.1%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.99B | $367.85B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.81 | 34.48 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.58 | 24.75 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.63 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.79 | 5.45 |
| Analyst targeti | $53.14 | $975.61 |
| Target upsidei | +3.63% | +21.91% |
| Metric | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 24.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.70% | 68.20% |
| EPS growthi | +22.70% | +68.20% |
| FCF margini | +13.46% | +6.76% |
| Operating margini | 38.42% | 22.18% |
| Profit margini | 22.21% | 14.51% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.36% | 56.97% |
| Return on equityi | 24.36% | 56.97% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 0.80% |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.60 |
| Debt/equityi | 138.07 | 232.78 |
| Current ratioi | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.78 |
Over the past year, CSX and CAT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.36), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +51.29% | +93.69% |
| CAGRi | +51.38% | +93.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.24% | 39.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.77 | 1.76 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.91 | 2.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.58% | 26.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 23.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.65% | 5.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 3.69% | 9.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.81% | 6.91% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.42% | 11.99% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +64.33% | +320.65% |
| CAGRi | +10.46% | +33.35% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.47% | 31.78% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.93 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 1.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.44% | 34.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 23.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.79% | 8.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.91% | 11.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 8.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.25% | 17.13% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +492.06% | +1119.41% |
| CAGRi | +19.48% | +28.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.77% | 31.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.81 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.93 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.55% | 43.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 23.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.43% | 10.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.98% | 13.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.55% | 14.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.55% | 24.36% |
| Category | CSX | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX | CAT |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. | Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. |
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