DE vs AGCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
John Deere and AGCO are the first and third-largest agricultural equipment companies respectively (with CNH in second), competing in global farm machinery and precision agriculture. Deere dominates North America with brand loyalty and Operations Center technology lead. AGCO is stronger in Europe (through Fendt) and South America. Both are in equipment cycle downturns and investing in precision agriculture technology, but Deere's scale and technology leadership create a sustainable competitive gap.
DE vs AGCO is the world's largest ag equipment maker with Operations Center technology leadership and North American dominance (Deere) versus the multi-brand agricultural equipment company with Fendt's European premium position and South American strength (AGCO) — global #1 with technology lead vs international multi-brand equipment alternative.
DE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+46.15% vs +11.23%), though AGCO has the better forward P/E setup (16.25x vs 28.07x for DE). On fundamentals, AGCO is growing revenue faster (-1.00%), while DE maintains the higher operating margin (17.48%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +5.56% for DE and +2.78% for AGCO.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the world's most recognized agricultural equipment brand with the most advanced precision agriculture technology and Operations Center platform leadership
- value Deere's North American market dominance and construction equipment diversification alongside agriculture
- want agricultural infrastructure compounding from the brand farmers trust across generations with increasing software-driven switching costs
- are comfortable with large ag equipment demand downturn, right-to-repair controversy, and premium valuation reflecting quality
- prefer European and South American agricultural equipment exposure through Fendt (European premium) and Massey Ferguson (global value) brands
- value AGCO's geographic diversification reducing US farm income cycle concentration vs Deere's North America dominance
- want agricultural equipment exposure at lower valuation multiples than Deere reflecting AGCO's smaller scale and lower technology lead
- are comfortable with European agricultural policy exposure, narrower precision ag technology compared to Deere's Operations Center, and smaller R&D investment capacity
| Metric | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.9 | 43.9 |
| AI ranki | #213 | #838 |
| Latest closei | $685.63 | $121.57 |
| 1M returni | +16.46% | +23.48% |
| 6M returni | +20.80% | +9.59% |
| 1Y returni | +46.15% | +11.23% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.4K (+44.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $22.34K (+123.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.92K (-0.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $111.81K (+1018.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $25.83K (+158.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $169.95B | $8.48B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.10 | 16.75 |
| Forward P/Ei | 28.07 | 16.25 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.10 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.37 | 1.07 |
| Analyst targeti | $665.35 | $124.47 |
| Target upsidei | +5.56% | +2.78% |
| Metric | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -11.10% | -1.00% |
| Earnings growthi | -8.50% | -74.40% |
| EPS growthi | -8.50% | -74.40% |
| FCF margini | +9.42% | +4.35% |
| Operating margini | 17.48% | 5.73% |
| Profit margini | 10.17% | 5.15% |
| ROIC proxyi | 18.24% | 11.83% |
| Return on equityi | 18.24% | 11.83% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.03% | 0.99% |
| Payout ratioi | 36.02% | 16.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.90 | 1.09 |
| Debt/equityi | 376.02 | 66.05 |
| Current ratioi | 2.13 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.91 | 0.45 |
Over the past year, DE and AGCO have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +44.00% | +10.28% |
| CAGRi | +44.06% | +10.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.08% | 35.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.16 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.94 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.13% | 29.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.82% | 13.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.74% | 11.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.49% | 13.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.67% | 7.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.81% | 15.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +112.19% | -0.82% |
| CAGRi | +16.26% | -0.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.81% | 35.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.81% | 49.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.82% | 18.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.74% | 22.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.68% | 24.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.07% | 11.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.56% | 18.37% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +861.79% | +158.27% |
| CAGRi | +25.41% | +9.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.45% | 35.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.10 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.91% | 54.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.82% | 22.37% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.28% | 18.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.71% | 22.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.07% | 18.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.71% | 34.24% |
| Category | DE | AGCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Deere & Company | AGCO Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | Deere is the world's largest agricultural equipment manufacturer with its John Deere brand and Operations Center precision agriculture platform. Deere's technology investment in precision agriculture — GPS guidance, variable rate application, autonomous equipment, and the Operations Center farm management platform — creates software-driven customer lock-in above traditional equipment switching costs. Deere's construction equipment business provides diversification beyond pure agriculture. | AGCO is the third-largest agricultural equipment company globally, marketing Fendt, Massey Ferguson, Valtra, and Challenger brands. Fendt is AGCO's premium brand — widely considered the technological leader in European precision agriculture (known for CVT transmissions and automation). AGCO's Precision Ag strategy includes AGCO+ digital farming services. AGCO sold its grain handling and protein production business to focus on core farm equipment. AGCO is more internationally focused than Deere, with stronger European market positions. |
| Investor focus | Investors track large ag equipment retail sales in North America, precision agriculture subscription growth, and the farm income environment determining equipment purchase decisions. | Investors track European and South American agricultural equipment markets (AGCO's strength), Fendt brand premium pricing, and AGCO+ precision agriculture service adoption. |
- John Deere brand is the most trusted and recognized agricultural equipment brand globally — farmer loyalty across generations
- Operations Center precision agriculture platform creates software switching costs above hardware — farmers investing in Deere workflow automations create long-term customer retention
- Autonomous equipment development (See & Spray, autonomous tractors) positions Deere as the precision agriculture technology leader
- Fendt is regarded as Europe's most technologically advanced agricultural brand — strong premium positioning in European markets where Fendt is the preferred precision choice
- Geographic diversification: AGCO is stronger in Europe and South America than North America — reducing US farm cycle dependency vs Deere
- AGCO's portfolio of 4 brands across different price tiers (Fendt premium to Massey Ferguson value) serves broader global market than single-brand strategies
- Large ag equipment cycle is in a downturn — North America equipment sales declined significantly from 2022 peak as farm incomes normalized
- Right-to-repair controversy creates farmer backlash and could face legislation requiring Deere to open repair software access
- AGCO and CNH competing aggressively in precision ag with comparable technology investments
- Fendt's European premium positioning doesn't translate automatically to North American or other markets — geographic concentration risk in European agriculture
- AGCO lacks Deere's scale advantage — R&D investment per unit is lower, limiting precision ag technology development pace vs Deere
- European agricultural equipment demand is linked to EU agricultural policy and farmer subsidy programs — policy uncertainty creates demand volatility
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