MO vs PM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Altria and Philip Morris International were spun apart in 2008 and offer very different exposure to tobacco's secular transition. PM is the more compelling growth story — its IQOS and ZYN platforms are driving a successful business model transition toward smoke-free products globally. Altria has better near-term dividend security from Marlboro's US dominance, but its transition is earlier-stage and slower.
Philip Morris is the better long-term tobacco investment for investors who believe smoke-free products are the future, as its IQOS and ZYN leadership positions it ahead of the industry curve; Altria is the more defensive high-yield play for investors who prioritize income over growth.
PM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.54% vs +6.40%), though MO has the better forward P/E setup (11.71x vs 20.93x for PM). On fundamentals, PM is growing revenue faster (10.40%), while MO maintains the higher operating margin (61.46%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PM (+6.21%) than for MO (+1.97%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prioritize dividend income from Marlboro's pricing power while the smoke-free transition develops
- want US-only tobacco exposure without the emerging market volatility of PM's international business
- value the Dividend King status and 50+ consecutive years of payout increases
- are comfortable with slower smoke-free transition progress in exchange for near-term income predictability
- want exposure to the most advanced global smoke-free transition in the tobacco industry
- believe IQOS and ZYN can sustain double-digit unit volume growth for years
- value PM's higher revenue growth potential as smoke-free products overtake cigarettes
- are comfortable with higher debt and short-term margin pressure during the transition
| Metric | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.0 | 51.6 |
| AI ranki | #1297 | #446 |
| Latest closei | $69.70 | $190.48 |
| 1M returni | +6.92% | +1.52% |
| 6M returni | +7.12% | +16.59% |
| 1Y returni | +6.40% | +14.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.9K (+9.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.78K (+17.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $26.76K (+167.6%) started 2021-09-20 | $28.15K (+181.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $44.39K (+343.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $53.42K (+434.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $114.63B | $299.08B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.45 | 26.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.71 | 20.93 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.93 | 7.37 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.70 | 8.09 |
| Analyst targeti | $70.00 | $203.80 |
| Target upsidei | +1.97% | +6.21% |
| Metric | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.20% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -2.70% | -7.50% |
| EPS growthi | -2.70% | -7.50% |
| FCF margini | +44.20% | +22.83% |
| Operating margini | 61.46% | 40.00% |
| Profit margini | 39.00% | 25.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 6.47% | 3.06% |
| Payout ratioi | 89.26% | 80.73% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.52 | 0.98 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.34 | 0.47 |
Over the past year, MO and PM have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +9.01% | +17.75% |
| CAGRi | +9.02% | +17.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.17% | 27.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.90% | 19.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.97% | 4.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.35% | 5.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.81% | 7.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.32% | 5.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 9.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +92.62% | +128.21% |
| CAGRi | +14.03% | +17.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.61% | 23.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.83% | 22.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.97% | 4.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.63% | 7.23% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.86% | 8.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.32% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 12.58% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +100.32% | +202.39% |
| CAGRi | +7.20% | +11.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.43% | 24.70% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.69% | 42.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.97% | 4.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.19% | 12.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.97% | 16.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.03% | 15.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.90% | 21.78% |
| Category | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Altria Group, Inc. | Philip Morris International Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Tobacco | Tobacco |
| Core business | Altria is the US's largest cigarette manufacturer, selling Marlboro (the #1 US cigarette brand), plus smokeless tobacco products (Copenhagen, Skoal) and heated tobacco via IQOS in select US markets. It does not have the international IQOS rights — those belong to Philip Morris. Altria's strategic priorities include transitioning its smoker base to smoke-free alternatives including IQOS, on! oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY e-vapor products acquired in 2023. | Philip Morris International sells Marlboro and other cigarette brands outside the US, but its most important growth engine is IQOS — its heated tobacco platform that heats rather than burns tobacco. IQOS is the global heated tobacco category leader with over 30 million users, and PM is pursuing regulatory submissions to have IQOS classified as a reduced-risk product in additional markets. The Swedish Match (ZYN nicotine pouches) acquisition added the world's leading oral nicotine pouch brand. |
| Investor focus | Investors track cigarette volume decline rate versus pricing power (Altria's ability to raise Marlboro prices faster than volumes fall), the IQOS US market rollout pace, on! nicotine pouch market share gains, and dividend sustainability given the declining core business. | Investors track IQOS heated tobacco unit (HTU) volume growth globally, ZYN nicotine pouch shipment growth in the US, the pace of smokeable-to-smoke-free user conversion, and the revenue mix shift away from cigarettes (which are declining) toward smoke-free products (which are growing). |
- Marlboro's dominant 43%+ US cigarette market share provides exceptional pricing power over volumes
- IQOS US rights and NJOY acquisition are building a multi-product smoke-free platform
- Over 50 consecutive years of dividend increases — a Dividend King status
- IQOS is the global heated tobacco leader with 30M+ users and deep clinical evidence for reduced-risk classification
- ZYN acquisition made PM the leader in the fastest-growing oral nicotine product in the US
- Smoke-free products now represent over 40% of total net revenues and growing rapidly
- Cigarette volume declines are structural and accelerating, pressuring the core revenue base
- IQOS US rollout has been slower than anticipated due to regulatory complexities
- High dividend payout ratio limits reinvestment capacity for smoke-free transition
- Swedish Match acquisition added significant debt reducing near-term financial flexibility
- Cigarette volumes outside the US continue to decline structurally, requiring rapid smoke-free conversion
- IQOS faces regulatory uncertainty in some markets and growing competition from BAT's Glo platform
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