DG vs DLTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Dollar General and Dollar Tree are both leading US dollar store chains, but DG operates in a more focused model targeting rural consumers with a consumables-heavy assortment, while DLTR is navigating the long-running challenges of integrating Family Dollar alongside its strong core Dollar Tree banner. DG's model is simpler and has historically produced better earnings; DLTR's potential hinges on Family Dollar resolution.
Dollar General is the higher-quality, simpler business with a proven rural market moat; Dollar Tree offers potential recovery upside if the Family Dollar strategic decision unlocks value from the combined company's discount.
DG holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DG leads on both 1-year return (+14.51%) and forward P/E quality (14.95x vs 16.28x for DLTR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DLTR is growing revenue faster (7.00%), while DG maintains the higher operating margin (6.81%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DG (+12.41%) than for DLTR (+5.50%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a focused rural discount retailer with a consumables-heavy mix providing defensive revenue
- value the extensive rural market distribution network that is structurally difficult to replicate
- believe lower-income consumer spending pressure is near a trough, setting up a comp sales recovery
- prefer a simpler single-banner business model versus DLTR's multi-format complexity
- see a catalyst in the potential divestiture or strategic repositioning of Family Dollar
- value the core Dollar Tree banner's fixed-price treasure-hunt model as a differentiated retail concept
- believe management's store closure program will improve Family Dollar unit economics
- are willing to accept near-term drag from Family Dollar for potential strategic value unlock
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.8 | 42.5 |
| AI ranki | #916 | #938 |
| Latest closei | $122.41 | $111.96 |
| 1M returni | +0.08% | -15.08% |
| 6M returni | -0.84% | +6.06% |
| 1Y returni | +14.51% | +13.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.45K (+14.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.39K (+13.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $6.22K (-37.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $12.77K (+27.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $21.25K (+112.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $13.96K (+39.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $27.11B | $24.07B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.94 | 15.72 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.95 | 16.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.95 | 1.53 |
| Analyst targeti | $138.14 | $135.32 |
| Target upsidei | +12.41% | +5.50% |
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.20% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 33.30% | 197.20% |
| EPS growthi | +33.30% | +197.20% |
| FCF margini | +3.98% | +5.23% |
| Operating margini | 6.81% | 6.21% |
| Profit margini | 3.90% | 8.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 19.69% | 46.03% |
| Return on equityi | 19.69% | 46.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 30.65% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.23 | 0.67 |
| Debt/equityi | 169.81 | 223.94 |
| Current ratioi | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.23 | 0.32 |
Over the past year, DG and DLTR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.63), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +14.51% | +13.94% |
| CAGRi | +14.52% | +13.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.65% | 41.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.88% | 38.53% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.65% | 20.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.98% | 12.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.86% | 16.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.64% | 5.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.56% | 10.41% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -41.47% | +27.69% |
| CAGRi | -10.17% | +5.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.89% | 40.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.22 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.29 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.69% | 35.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 37.98% | 28.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.45% | 33.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.20% | 33.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +89.71% | +39.57% |
| CAGRi | +6.61% | +3.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.50% | 37.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.69% | 35.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.49% | 22.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.74% | 27.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.20% | 33.38% |
| Category | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Dollar General Corporation | Dollar Tree, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Dollar General operates over 19,000 small-format stores primarily in rural and suburban US markets, selling consumables, household products, and seasonal merchandise at everyday low prices. Its stores are often the only retail option within several miles for rural consumers. A significant majority of its revenue comes from consumables (food, health, cleaning) — a more defensive product mix than Dollar Tree's discretionary assortment. The pOpshelf banner targets slightly higher-income shoppers with seasonal and lifestyle products. | Dollar Tree operates two store formats: Dollar Tree (fixed $1.25 price point, moving to a multi-price format) and Family Dollar (acquired in 2015, serving lower-income urban and suburban shoppers). The Family Dollar acquisition has been a multi-year challenge — underperforming stores, high shrink, and a heavy debt burden — and management is now closing hundreds of underperforming Family Dollar locations while evaluating strategic alternatives. The core Dollar Tree banner remains a strong, differentiated value retailer. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable sales growth (particularly the consumables versus non-consumables mix), gross margin recovery from shrink (inventory theft) and supply chain pressures, new store productivity, and whether the core customer — lower-income households — is facing worsening financial stress. | Investors track Dollar Tree banner comparable sales, Family Dollar turnaround progress (comp sales, margins), the scope of Family Dollar store closures, and whether Dollar Tree's multi-price format expansion improves the core banner's revenue per customer. |
- Rural market density with 19,000+ stores creates a nearly unassailable logistics and convenience moat
- Consumables-heavy assortment provides defensive revenue during economic downturns
- pOpshelf expansion targets higher-income consumers diversifying the customer base
- Dollar Tree banner has distinctive $1.25 fixed-price positioning that drives treasure-hunt shopping behavior
- Multi-price format expansion in Dollar Tree stores increases basket sizes beyond the single price point limitation
- Family Dollar divestiture or spin-off could unlock significant value for Dollar Tree shareholders
- Core lower-income consumer is under significant financial pressure, leading to trade-down in spending
- Shrink (retail theft) has been a persistent gross margin headwind requiring security investment
- New store unit economics have declined as site selection has moved to less-ideal locations
- Family Dollar has been a consistent earnings and margin drag since the 2015 acquisition
- Higher debt levels from the Family Dollar acquisition limit capital return flexibility
- Fixed-price positioning limits pricing power and margin flexibility during cost inflation
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