LIVE
DG
Dollar General Corporation · Consumer Staples
$113.45
+9.63% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc. · Consumer Staples
$111.65
+23.22% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
DG
2
DLTR
3
Comparison scoreboard
DLTR LEADS 3/5AI Score
DG 40.7
DLTR ✓41.1
1Y Return
DG +0.11%
DLTR ✓+13.52%
Fwd P/E
DG ✓14.35
DLTR 14.91
Target Up.
DG ✓+14.32%
DLTR +9.65%
Op. Margin
DG 5.92%
DLTR ✓9.09%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
DG vs DLTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Dollar General and Dollar Tree are both leading US dollar store chains, but DG operates in a more focused model targeting rural consumers with a consumables-heavy assortment, while DLTR is navigating the long-running challenges of integrating Family Dollar alongside its strong core Dollar Tree banner. DG's model is simpler and has historically produced better earnings; DLTR's potential hinges on Family Dollar resolution.
Dollar General is the higher-quality, simpler business with a proven rural market moat; Dollar Tree offers potential recovery upside if the Family Dollar strategic decision unlocks value from the combined company's discount.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
DLTR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DLTR has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+13.52% vs +0.11%), though DG trades at the lower forward P/E (14.35x vs 14.91x). DLTR leads on both revenue growth (7.20%) and operating margin (9.09%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DG (+14.32%) than for DLTR (+9.65%).
Normalized 1Y performance
DG
DLTR
Recent returns
DG
DLTR
Analyst price targets & sentiment
DG
Price target range
analyst mean$131.24
current price$113.45
+14.3% upside to analyst mean
DLTR
Price target range
analyst mean$125.00
current price$111.65
+9.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
DG may suit investors who:
- →want a focused rural discount retailer with a consumables-heavy mix providing defensive revenue
- →value the extensive rural market distribution network that is structurally difficult to replicate
- →believe lower-income consumer spending pressure is near a trough, setting up a comp sales recovery
- →prefer a simpler single-banner business model versus DLTR's multi-format complexity
DLTR may suit investors who:
- →see a catalyst in the potential divestiture or strategic repositioning of Family Dollar
- →value the core Dollar Tree banner's fixed-price treasure-hunt model as a differentiated retail concept
- →believe management's store closure program will improve Family Dollar unit economics
- →are willing to accept near-term drag from Family Dollar for potential strategic value unlock
Performance & AI score
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 40.7 | 41.1 |
| AI rank | #1024 | #991 |
| Latest close | $113.45 | $111.65 |
| 1M return | +9.63% | +23.22% |
| 6M return | -17.17% | -13.01% |
| 1Y return | +0.11% | +13.52% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.1K (+1.0%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.45K (+14.5%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $6K (-40.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $15.66K (+56.6%) started 2016-06-20 | $12.07K (+20.7%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $25.32B | $21.91B |
| Trailing P/E | 16.24 | 18.33 |
| Forward P/E | 14.35 | 14.91 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 0.92 | 1.44 |
| Analyst target | $131.24 | $125.00 |
| Target upside | +14.32% | +9.65% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 3.40% | 7.20% |
| Earnings growth | 12.40% | 9.50% |
| EPS growth | +12.40% | +9.50% |
| FCF margin | +4.37% | +7.31% |
| Operating margin | 5.92% | 9.09% |
| Profit margin | 3.63% | 6.51% |
| ROIC proxy | 18.91% | 33.98% |
| Return on equity | 18.91% | 33.98% |
| Dividend yield | 2.06% | N/A |
| Beta | 0.26 | 0.66 |
| Debt/equity | 178.65 | 216.52 |
| Current ratio | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| Quick ratio | 0.19 | 0.32 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
DG max drawdown34.88%
DLTR max drawdown38.53%
DG max wkly drop12.56%
DLTR max wkly drop13.52%
5Y risk snapshot
DG max drawdown72.61%
DLTR max drawdown64.84%
DG max wkly drop35.20%
DLTR max wkly drop33.38%
10Y risk snapshot
DG max drawdown72.61%
DLTR max drawdown64.84%
DG max wkly drop35.20%
DLTR max wkly drop33.38%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +1.02% | +14.48% |
| CAGR | +1.02% | +14.50% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.08 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.88% | 38.53% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.64% | 8.37% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.56% | 13.52% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -43.67% | +10.34% |
| CAGR | -10.86% | +1.99% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.25 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Max daily drop | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 35.20% | 33.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +39.31% | +20.73% |
| CAGR | +3.37% | +1.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 72.61% | 64.84% | |
| Max daily drop | 32.15% | 22.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 35.20% | 33.38% |
Business comparison
| Category | DG | DLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Dollar General Corporation | Dollar Tree, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Dollar General operates over 19,000 small-format stores primarily in rural and suburban US markets, selling consumables, household products, and seasonal merchandise at everyday low prices. Its stores are often the only retail option within several miles for rural consumers. A significant majority of its revenue comes from consumables (food, health, cleaning) — a more defensive product mix than Dollar Tree's discretionary assortment. The pOpshelf banner targets slightly higher-income shoppers with seasonal and lifestyle products. | Dollar Tree operates two store formats: Dollar Tree (fixed $1.25 price point, moving to a multi-price format) and Family Dollar (acquired in 2015, serving lower-income urban and suburban shoppers). The Family Dollar acquisition has been a multi-year challenge — underperforming stores, high shrink, and a heavy debt burden — and management is now closing hundreds of underperforming Family Dollar locations while evaluating strategic alternatives. The core Dollar Tree banner remains a strong, differentiated value retailer. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable sales growth (particularly the consumables versus non-consumables mix), gross margin recovery from shrink (inventory theft) and supply chain pressures, new store productivity, and whether the core customer — lower-income households — is facing worsening financial stress. | Investors track Dollar Tree banner comparable sales, Family Dollar turnaround progress (comp sales, margins), the scope of Family Dollar store closures, and whether Dollar Tree's multi-price format expansion improves the core banner's revenue per customer. |
DG strengths
- →Rural market density with 19,000+ stores creates a nearly unassailable logistics and convenience moat
- →Consumables-heavy assortment provides defensive revenue during economic downturns
- →pOpshelf expansion targets higher-income consumers diversifying the customer base
DLTR strengths
- →Dollar Tree banner has distinctive $1.25 fixed-price positioning that drives treasure-hunt shopping behavior
- →Multi-price format expansion in Dollar Tree stores increases basket sizes beyond the single price point limitation
- →Family Dollar divestiture or spin-off could unlock significant value for Dollar Tree shareholders
Risks to watch — DG
- →Core lower-income consumer is under significant financial pressure, leading to trade-down in spending
- →Shrink (retail theft) has been a persistent gross margin headwind requiring security investment
- →New store unit economics have declined as site selection has moved to less-ideal locations
Risks to watch — DLTR
- →Family Dollar has been a consistent earnings and margin drag since the 2015 acquisition
- →Higher debt levels from the Family Dollar acquisition limit capital return flexibility
- →Fixed-price positioning limits pricing power and margin flexibility during cost inflation
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