GO vs BJ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GO (Grocery Outlet) and BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club) are both value-oriented grocery and consumer goods retailers but with different models — Grocery Outlet provides extreme value through opportunistic closeout merchandise in smaller stores operated by independent entrepreneurs, while BJ's provides bulk purchasing convenience and membership fee-based economics in warehouse format clubs concentrated on the East Coast. Grocery Outlet is the extreme value treasure-hunt format; BJ's is the East Coast warehouse club.
GO vs BJ is extreme value opportunistic buying model (Grocery Outlet's closeout branded merchandise at 40-70% discounts creating a treasure-hunt shopping experience with recession-resistant appeal) versus membership warehouse club compounding (BJ's high-renewal-rate membership fees and bulk grocery value for East Coast suburban families creating stable recurring income with Costco-like economic characteristics) — opportunistic discount versus membership warehouse.
BJ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BJ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+0.30% vs -28.16%), though GO has the better forward P/E setup (17.93x vs 18.19x for BJ). BJ leads on both revenue growth (15.70%) and operating margin (4.05%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BJ (+15.58%) than for GO (-11.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want extreme value grocery exposure with a countercyclical characteristic — Grocery Outlet's treasure-hunt shopping experience and deep discounts appeal to a broad consumer base that grows during economic downturns as value consciousness increases
- Value the independent operator model as creating highly motivated local entrepreneurs who run efficient, community-connected stores aligned with Grocery Outlet's growth objectives
- See Grocery Outlet's still-small store count (500) as a long runway for new store openings in markets across the Western and Eastern U.S. at attractive unit economics
- Want a membership warehouse club model with high-renewal membership fee economics that compound with member count growth — BJ's 90%+ renewal rates create a durable revenue base
- Value BJ's East Coast market position in a region where Costco has fewer locations per capita, providing a less saturated competitive environment for BJ's clubs
- Prefer BJ's similarity to Costco's proven warehouse club model (with the added couponing differentiation for budget-conscious shoppers) as a high-quality value retail format
| Metric | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 23.5 | 44.0 |
| AI ranki | #3558 | #766 |
| Latest closei | $11.07 | $93.79 |
| 1M returni | -9.34% | +0.49% |
| 6M returni | +56.58% | -5.84% |
| 1Y returni | -28.16% | +0.30% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.18K (-28.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.99K (-0.1%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $5.02K (-49.8%) started 2021-09-27 | $16.18K (+61.8%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $3.88K (-61.2%) started 2019-06-20 | $42.63K (+326.3%) started 2018-06-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.2B | $11.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 20.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.93 | 18.19 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Analyst targeti | $10.73 | $105.65 |
| Target upsidei | -11.06% | +15.58% |
| Metric | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.10% | 15.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.60% | 19.30% |
| EPS growthi | +13.60% | +19.30% |
| FCF margini | -0.94% | +1.08% |
| Operating margini | 1.78% | 4.05% |
| Profit margini | -8.04% | 2.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | -38.06% | 27.67% |
| Return on equityi | -38.06% | 27.67% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.68 | 0.19 |
| Debt/equityi | 226.66 | 126.21 |
| Current ratioi | 1.29 | 0.73 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.22 | 0.11 |
Over the past year, GO and BJ have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.22), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -28.16% | -0.05% |
| CAGRi | -28.18% | -0.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.11% | 29.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | -0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.55 | -0.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.85% | 18.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.79% | 8.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.28% | 6.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.06% | 8.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.87% | 8.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.37% | 13.78% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -49.80% | +61.76% |
| CAGRi | -12.89% | +10.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.34% | 32.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.12 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.18 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.29% | 30.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 75.70% | 21.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.69% | 11.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.59% | 14.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.18% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.37% | 16.12% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -61.17% | +326.32% |
| CAGRi | -12.21% | +19.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.92% | 36.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.14 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.20 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.59% | 38.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 76.27% | 21.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.01% | 12.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.78% | 15.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.18% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.37% | 22.97% |
| Category | GO | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Grocery Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Grocery Outlet is a fast-growing extreme value food retailer — operating approximately 500 independently-operated stores that sell opportunistic (closeout, overstock, seasonal) branded grocery, dairy, deli, produce, and general merchandise at 40-70% below conventional grocery prices. Grocery Outlet's buyers purchase excess inventory from CPG manufacturers and distributors at significant discounts and pass savings to customers. Stores are operated by independent operators (IOs) who run their store as a franchise-like partnership. | BJ's Wholesale Club is a membership-based warehouse retailer — selling bulk-packaged grocery, perishable food, electronics, apparel, home goods, and gasoline to members paying annual membership fees. BJ's operates approximately 250 clubs concentrated in the Eastern U.S. (from Maine to Florida). BJ's is the third major warehouse club chain after Costco and Sam's Club, with a differentiation through accepting manufacturer coupons, offering more SKUs than Costco, and targeting suburban East Coast families. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Grocery Outlet's comparable store sales, new store openings (the company has been aggressively expanding), gross margin management, independent operator model performance, and the pipeline of opportunistic buying deals as CPG companies produce excess inventory. | Investors track BJ's membership fee revenue and member count growth, comparable club sales, membership renewal rates, digital penetration (curbside pickup, same-day delivery), and gasoline revenue contribution. BJ's membership model creates recurring fee income that is high-margin and relatively recession-resistant. |
- Extreme value model creates treasure-hunt shopping experience — Grocery Outlet's rotating product selection (you may not find the same item twice) creates a treasure-hunt experience that drives frequent shopper visits; finding a name-brand item at 50% off encourages return visits to discover new deals
- Independent operator model aligns incentives and reduces overhead — Grocery Outlet's IOs invest their own capital in their stores and keep a profit share; this creates highly motivated local operators who know their communities better than corporate managers, improving customer service and local product selection
- Recession-resistant value proposition grows in economic downturns — Grocery Outlet's extreme value positioning is countercyclical; when consumers face economic pressure, they shift toward Grocery Outlet from conventional grocery, accelerating comparable store sales growth
- Membership fee model creates recurring high-margin income — BJ's annual membership fee revenue is nearly pure profit; once members join, renewal rates are consistently above 90%, providing durable recurring income with minimal incremental cost
- East Coast concentration in a market underserved by Costco — Costco has fewer clubs per capita in the Northeastern U.S. than in other regions; BJ's has established strong market positions in East Coast suburban markets that Costco doesn't fully penetrate
- Coupon acceptance differentiates from Costco — BJ's acceptance of manufacturer coupons allows budget-conscious East Coast shoppers to achieve additional savings beyond BJ's already discounted bulk pricing; this differentiates BJ's from Costco for coupon-savvy shoppers
- Opportunistic buying pipeline variability — Grocery Outlet's merchandise depends on CPG companies having excess inventory to sell; in periods of tight supply chains or strong CPG demand, the availability of deeply discounted product may be reduced
- Independent operator execution variability — because stores are run by IOs rather than Grocery Outlet corporate managers, store quality can vary significantly; poor IO execution at individual stores can damage the brand experience
- Thin margins with limited scale benefits — Grocery Outlet's opportunistic model limits the economies of scale that conventional grocers achieve through consistent high-volume purchasing; gross margins are moderate despite the value proposition
- Costco and Sam's Club competition — Costco's powerful brand, high-quality Kirkland private label, and continuous expansion create ongoing competitive pressure; Sam's Club's Walmart integration provides supply chain advantages
- Geographic concentration risk — BJ's East Coast focus means a regional economic downturn or competitive expansion by Costco into East Coast markets would disproportionately affect BJ's
- Gasoline price volatility affects reported revenue — BJ's gasoline stations contribute meaningfully to reported revenue; fluctuations in gasoline prices create reported revenue volatility that can obscure underlying merchandise and membership trends
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