LIVE
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Staples
$926.43
-5.69% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. · Consumer Staples
$89.87
-1.29% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
COST
3
BJ
1
Comparison scoreboard
COST LEADS 3/5AI Score
COST ✓60.4
BJ 38.8
1Y Return
COST ✓-4.52%
BJ -16.35%
Fwd P/E
COST 40.49
BJ ✓18.40
Target Up.
COST ✓+17.91%
BJ +12.50%
Op. Margin
COST 3.67%
BJ N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
COST vs BJ: Costco vs BJ's Wholesale Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Costco is the global warehouse club leader with best-in-class membership economics and global scale, while BJ's is a smaller East Coast club with a value-oriented grocery-heavy model and room to grow membership. Costco is the premium quality warehouse club; BJ's is the value entry point with more growth runway in its core markets.
COST vs BJ is the gold standard warehouse club at a premium valuation versus a smaller, faster-growing East Coast club at a lower multiple — Costco offers unmatched quality and global scale; BJ's offers a lower-multiple entry into warehouse club economics with East Coast growth upside.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
COST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-4.52% vs -16.35%), though BJ has the better forward P/E setup (18.40x vs 40.49x for COST). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COST (+17.91%) than for BJ (+12.50%).
Normalized 1Y performance
COST
BJ
Recent returns
COST
BJ
Analyst price targets & sentiment
COST · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$620.00
analyst high$1,225.00
analyst mean$1,080.33
current price$926.43
+17.9% upside to analyst mean
BJ · 20 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$79.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$101.10
current price$89.87
+12.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
COST may suit investors who:
- →want the highest-quality warehouse club with 90%+ renewal rates and global scale
- →are comfortable paying a premium P/E for exceptional membership renewal durability
- →value Costco's international expansion and e-commerce as long-term growth levers
- →prefer a lower-risk, high-quality consumer staples compounder
BJ may suit investors who:
- →prefer the lower-multiple warehouse club with more membership growth runway
- →believe BJ's East Coast market penetration will compound over time
- →value coupon acceptance and grocery focus as membership retention advantages
- →are comfortable with smaller scale in exchange for more attractive valuation relative to growth
Performance & AI score
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 60.4 | 38.8 |
| AI rank | #197 | #1312 |
| Latest close | $926.43 | $89.87 |
| 1M return | -5.69% | -1.29% |
| 6M return | +0.17% | -2.25% |
| 1Y return | -4.52% | -16.35% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.44K (-5.6%) started 2025-07-14 | $8.36K (-16.4%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $24.91K (+149.1%) started 2021-07-14 | $18.84K (+88.4%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $77.96K (+679.6%) started 2016-07-14 | $40.85K (+308.5%) started 2018-06-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $406.34B | $11.48B |
| Trailing P/E | 46.09 | 20.20 |
| Forward P/E | 40.49 | 18.40 |
| Price/Sales | 1.67 | 0.52 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.38 | 0.65 |
| Analyst target | $1,080.33 | $101.10 |
| Target upside | +17.91% | +12.50% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 21.50% | 9.90% |
| Earnings growth | 45.50% | -2.70% |
| EPS growth | +45.50% | -2.70% |
| FCF margin | +2.37% | +0.41% |
| Operating margin | 3.67% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 3.01% | 2.60% |
| ROIC proxy | 29.15% | 27.88% |
| Return on equity | 29.15% | 27.88% |
| Dividend yield | 0.64% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.87 | 0.23 |
| Debt/equity | 60.26 | 134.58 |
| Current ratio | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| Quick ratio | 0.56 | 0.11 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown16.57%
BJ max drawdown23.79%
COST max wkly drop8.96%
BJ max wkly drop13.78%
5Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
BJ max drawdown30.12%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
BJ max wkly drop16.12%
10Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
BJ max drawdown38.76%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
BJ max wkly drop22.97%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -5.55% | -16.35% |
| CAGR | -5.58% | -16.36% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | -0.60 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.57% | 23.79% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.21% | 8.52% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.96% | 13.78% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +137.20% | +88.45% |
| CAGR | +18.87% | +13.51% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.68 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 30.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 16.12% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +553.96% | +308.50% |
| CAGR | +20.66% | +19.12% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 38.76% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 22.97% |
Business comparison
| Category | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Staples |
| Industry | Discount Stores | N/A |
| Core business | Global warehouse club with 880+ locations across the US, Canada, and internationally. Costco's model earns nearly all operating profit from membership fees rather than merchandise margins, selling groceries, electronics, apparel, and services at low markups. | US East Coast warehouse club with 250+ clubs primarily in the Northeast and Southeast. BJ's differentiates through smaller club size, coupon acceptance, and a more grocery-focused assortment vs Costco. |
| Investor focus | Membership renewal rates and fee income growth, comparable-store traffic, international expansion, e-commerce growth, and free cash flow conversion. | Membership growth in existing and new East Coast markets, comparable-club sales, digitally-enabled membership, and margin improvement through private label and services. |
COST strengths
- →Membership renewal rates above 90% in the US create the most durable recurring revenue in retail
- →Costco's scale and buying power allow prices that competitors cannot consistently undercut
- →Global expansion and e-commerce provide long runway for unit growth and revenue per member
BJ strengths
- →East Coast focus means BJ's is less mature and has more room to grow membership than Costco in its core markets
- →Coupon acceptance and grocery-heavy assortment appeal to price-sensitive East Coast consumers
- →Much lower valuation than Costco provides a more attractive entry point for value-oriented investors
Risks to watch — COST
- →Premium valuation (50x+ P/E) leaves little margin of error for execution
- →Slowing same-store traffic growth as US penetration matures in some markets
- →Gasoline price volatility affects reported comp sales but not membership economics materially
Risks to watch — BJ
- →BJ's is far smaller than Costco and lacks international diversification
- →Competition from Costco itself entering BJ's markets and from Sam's Club (Walmart)
- →Membership renewal rates are improving but still lower than Costco's 90%+
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