COST vs BJ: Costco vs BJ's Wholesale Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Costco is the global warehouse club leader with best-in-class membership economics and global scale, while BJ's is a smaller East Coast club with a value-oriented grocery-heavy model and room to grow membership. Costco is the premium quality warehouse club; BJ's is the value entry point with more growth runway in its core markets.
COST vs BJ is the gold standard warehouse club at a premium valuation versus a smaller, faster-growing East Coast club at a lower multiple — Costco offers unmatched quality and global scale; BJ's offers a lower-multiple entry into warehouse club economics with East Coast growth upside.
BJ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BJ leads on both 1-year return (+9.02%) and forward P/E quality (18.19x vs 41.72x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while BJ maintains the higher operating margin (4.05%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.94% for COST and +15.58% for BJ.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the highest-quality warehouse club with 90%+ renewal rates and global scale
- are comfortable paying a premium P/E for exceptional membership renewal durability
- value Costco's international expansion and e-commerce as long-term growth levers
- prefer a lower-risk, high-quality consumer staples compounder
- prefer the lower-multiple warehouse club with more membership growth runway
- believe BJ's East Coast market penetration will compound over time
- value coupon acceptance and grocery focus as membership retention advantages
- are comfortable with smaller scale in exchange for more attractive valuation relative to growth
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.4 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #115 | #736 |
| Latest closei | $978.01 | $103.27 |
| 1M returni | +8.51% | +8.64% |
| 3M returni | +3.43% | +10.96% |
| 6M returni | -0.93% | +11.96% |
| 1Y returni | +2.41% | +9.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.57K (+5.7%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.1K (+11.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $23.25K (+132.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $17.69K (+76.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $91.87K (+818.7%) started 2016-10-17 | $46.94K (+369.4%) started 2018-06-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $419.3B | $11.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.63 | 20.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 41.72 | 18.19 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.67 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.42 | 0.63 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,077.31 | $105.65 |
| Target upsidei | +13.94% | +15.58% |
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.50% | 15.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 45.50% | 19.30% |
| EPS growthi | +45.50% | +19.30% |
| FCF margini | +2.37% | +1.08% |
| Operating margini | 3.67% | 4.05% |
| Profit margini | 3.01% | 2.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | 29.15% | 27.67% |
| Return on equityi | 29.15% | 27.67% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 26.69% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.86 | 0.19 |
| Debt/equityi | 60.26 | 126.21 |
| Current ratioi | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.11 |
Over the past year, COST and BJ have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +5.66% | +11.04% |
| CAGRi | +5.67% | +11.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.62% | 30.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.21 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.33% | 18.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.63% | 0.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.32% | 6.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.35% | 8.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.21% | 8.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.96% | 13.78% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +121.80% | +76.92% |
| CAGRi | +17.29% | +12.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.94% | 32.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 30.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.63% | 13.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.59% | 11.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.76% | 14.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 16.12% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +672.98% | +369.41% |
| CAGRi | +22.70% | +20.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.06% | 36.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.40% | 38.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.63% | 13.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.96% | 12.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.43% | 15.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.26% | 22.97% |
| Category | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Global warehouse club with 880+ locations across the US, Canada, and internationally. Costco's model earns nearly all operating profit from membership fees rather than merchandise margins, selling groceries, electronics, apparel, and services at low markups. | US East Coast warehouse club with 250+ clubs primarily in the Northeast and Southeast. BJ's differentiates through smaller club size, coupon acceptance, and a more grocery-focused assortment vs Costco. |
| Investor focus | Membership renewal rates and fee income growth, comparable-store traffic, international expansion, e-commerce growth, and free cash flow conversion. | Membership growth in existing and new East Coast markets, comparable-club sales, digitally-enabled membership, and margin improvement through private label and services. |
- Membership renewal rates above 90% in the US create the most durable recurring revenue in retail
- Costco's scale and buying power allow prices that competitors cannot consistently undercut
- Global expansion and e-commerce provide long runway for unit growth and revenue per member
- East Coast focus means BJ's is less mature and has more room to grow membership than Costco in its core markets
- Coupon acceptance and grocery-heavy assortment appeal to price-sensitive East Coast consumers
- Much lower valuation than Costco provides a more attractive entry point for value-oriented investors
- Premium valuation (50x+ P/E) leaves little margin of error for execution
- Slowing same-store traffic growth as US penetration matures in some markets
- Gasoline price volatility affects reported comp sales but not membership economics materially
- BJ's is far smaller than Costco and lacks international diversification
- Competition from Costco itself entering BJ's markets and from Sam's Club (Walmart)
- Membership renewal rates are improving but still lower than Costco's 90%+
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