COST vs BJ: Costco vs BJ's Wholesale Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Costco is the global warehouse club leader with best-in-class membership economics and global scale, while BJ's is a smaller East Coast club with a value-oriented grocery-heavy model and room to grow membership. Costco is the premium quality warehouse club; BJ's is the value entry point with more growth runway in its core markets.
COST vs BJ is the gold standard warehouse club at a premium valuation versus a smaller, faster-growing East Coast club at a lower multiple — Costco offers unmatched quality and global scale; BJ's offers a lower-multiple entry into warehouse club economics with East Coast growth upside.
BJ holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+0.06% vs -7.20%), though BJ has the better forward P/E setup (18.04x vs 41.72x for COST). On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while BJ maintains the higher operating margin (4.05%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.94% for COST and +16.55% for BJ.
- want the highest-quality warehouse club with 90%+ renewal rates and global scale
- are comfortable paying a premium P/E for exceptional membership renewal durability
- value Costco's international expansion and e-commerce as long-term growth levers
- prefer a lower-risk, high-quality consumer staples compounder
- prefer the lower-multiple warehouse club with more membership growth runway
- believe BJ's East Coast market penetration will compound over time
- value coupon acceptance and grocery focus as membership retention advantages
- are comfortable with smaller scale in exchange for more attractive valuation relative to growth
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 60.8 | 43.4 |
| AI rank | #136 | #804 |
| Latest close | $943.89 | $90.65 |
| 1M return | -0.84% | -7.29% |
| 6M return | -5.87% | -8.24% |
| 1Y return | +0.06% | -7.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.05K (+0.5%) started 2025-09-02 | $9.19K (-8.1%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $22.7K (+127.0%) started 2021-09-01 | $16K (+60.0%) started 2021-08-31 |
| 10Y ago | $84.4K (+744.0%) started 2016-09-01 | $41.2K (+312.0%) started 2018-06-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $419.3B | $11.45B |
| Trailing P/E | 47.63 | 19.84 |
| Forward P/E | 41.72 | 18.04 |
| Price/Sales | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.42 | 0.62 |
| Analyst target | $1,077.31 | $105.65 |
| Target upside | +13.94% | +16.55% |
| Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 21.50% | 15.70% |
| Earnings growth | 45.50% | 19.30% |
| EPS growth | +45.50% | +19.30% |
| FCF margin | +2.37% | +1.08% |
| Operating margin | 3.67% | 4.05% |
| Profit margin | 3.01% | 2.61% |
| ROIC proxy | 29.15% | 27.67% |
| Return on equity | 29.15% | 27.67% |
| Dividend yield | 0.62% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.86 | 0.19 |
| Debt/equity | 60.26 | 126.21 |
| Current ratio | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| Quick ratio | 0.56 | 0.11 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +0.54% | -8.06% |
| CAGR | +0.54% | -8.11% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.10 | -0.29 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.57% | 18.45% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.21% | 8.25% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.96% | 13.78% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +116.61% | +59.99% |
| CAGR | +16.72% | +9.86% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 30.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 16.12% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +610.15% | +312.05% |
| CAGR | +21.66% | +18.91% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.80 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 38.76% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 16.28% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 22.97% |
| Category | COST | BJ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Staples |
| Industry | Discount Stores | N/A |
| Core business | Global warehouse club with 880+ locations across the US, Canada, and internationally. Costco's model earns nearly all operating profit from membership fees rather than merchandise margins, selling groceries, electronics, apparel, and services at low markups. | US East Coast warehouse club with 250+ clubs primarily in the Northeast and Southeast. BJ's differentiates through smaller club size, coupon acceptance, and a more grocery-focused assortment vs Costco. |
| Investor focus | Membership renewal rates and fee income growth, comparable-store traffic, international expansion, e-commerce growth, and free cash flow conversion. | Membership growth in existing and new East Coast markets, comparable-club sales, digitally-enabled membership, and margin improvement through private label and services. |
- Membership renewal rates above 90% in the US create the most durable recurring revenue in retail
- Costco's scale and buying power allow prices that competitors cannot consistently undercut
- Global expansion and e-commerce provide long runway for unit growth and revenue per member
- East Coast focus means BJ's is less mature and has more room to grow membership than Costco in its core markets
- Coupon acceptance and grocery-heavy assortment appeal to price-sensitive East Coast consumers
- Much lower valuation than Costco provides a more attractive entry point for value-oriented investors
- Premium valuation (50x+ P/E) leaves little margin of error for execution
- Slowing same-store traffic growth as US penetration matures in some markets
- Gasoline price volatility affects reported comp sales but not membership economics materially
- BJ's is far smaller than Costco and lacks international diversification
- Competition from Costco itself entering BJ's markets and from Sam's Club (Walmart)
- Membership renewal rates are improving but still lower than Costco's 90%+
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.