WMT vs COST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Walmart and Costco are both grocery and consumer staples retail giants but with very different business models. Walmart competes on EDLP price leadership at scale; Costco earns profit from memberships and sells merchandise near-cost. Both are among the most durable consumer retail businesses. Walmart's scale and advertising transformation give it multiple growth vectors; Costco's membership model creates a unique profit structure that competitors cannot easily replicate. Both trade at quality premiums.
WMT vs COST is the world's largest retailer transforming EDLP grocery dominance into membership (Walmart+) and advertising (Walmart Connect) higher-margin revenue while maintaining essential weekly consumer traffic (Walmart) versus the membership warehouse compounder whose $5B+ fee income enables near-cost merchandise pricing, creating irreplaceable consumer loyalty and 93%+ renewal (Costco) — retail scale transformation vs membership fee model monopoly.
WMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT leads on both 1-year return (+3.02%) and forward P/E quality (31.99x vs 41.72x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while WMT maintains the higher operating margin (4.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WMT (+23.90%) than for COST (+13.94%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the world's largest retailer with grocery market leadership, advertising transformation toward higher-margin revenue, and essential weekly consumer traffic defensiveness
- value Walmart's multi-growth-vector transformation: Walmart+, Walmart Connect advertising, and international markets provide multiple upside drivers beyond traditional retail
- want recession-resilient consumer staples exposure with the most powerful retail procurement scale in existence providing structural COGS advantages
- are comfortable with Amazon grocery competition, e-commerce profitability build-out costs, and international market complexity across diverse geographies
- prefer the uniquely structured membership warehouse model where $5B+ fee revenue enables near-cost merchandise selling — a business model competitors literally cannot copy without becoming Costco
- value Costco's 93%+ membership renewal as one of the most exceptional consumer loyalty metrics in retail — members do not leave
- want high-quality consumer staples compounding at a premium valuation from one of retail's best management teams and most durable business models
- are comfortable with 45–55x P/E premium requiring flawless execution, limited e-commerce format, and international warehouse expansion being the primary new unit driver
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.1 | 61.5 |
| AI ranki | #354 | #156 |
| Latest closei | $106.73 | $895.31 |
| 1M returni | -6.62% | -6.45% |
| 6M returni | -11.86% | -8.15% |
| 1Y returni | +3.02% | -5.99% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.3K (+3.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.4K (-6.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $24.91K (+149.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $21.79K (+117.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $61.46K (+514.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $82.39K (+723.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $820.4B | $419.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.35 | 47.63 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.99 | 41.72 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.21 | 1.42 |
| Analyst targeti | $127.73 | $1,077.31 |
| Target upsidei | +23.90% | +13.94% |
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.90% | 21.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.10% | 45.50% |
| EPS growthi | -9.10% | +45.50% |
| FCF margini | +1.22% | +2.37% |
| Operating margini | 4.99% | 3.67% |
| Profit margini | 3.00% | 3.01% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.31% | 29.15% |
| Return on equityi | 22.31% | 29.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.96% | 0.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 34.96% | 27.01% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.60 | 0.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.38 | 60.26 |
| Current ratioi | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 0.56 |
Over the past year, WMT and COST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.59), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +3.02% | -5.99% |
| CAGRi | +3.02% | -5.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.86% | 19.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.07 | -0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.10 | -0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.52% | 18.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.47% | 18.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.61% | 6.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.12% | 8.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.15% | 4.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.67% | 8.96% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +136.25% | +107.91% |
| CAGRi | +18.78% | +15.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.42% | 22.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.68 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | 0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 31.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.47% | 18.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.39% | 9.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.90% | 11.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 16.26% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +419.29% | +593.21% |
| CAGRi | +17.91% | +21.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.10% | 22.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.79 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | 1.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 31.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.47% | 18.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.28% | 6.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.72% | 9.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 16.26% |
| Category | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Walmart Inc. | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Walmart is the world's largest retailer with 10,500+ stores in 19 countries, serving 90% of Americans within 10 miles of a Walmart location. Walmart's Everyday Low Price (EDLP) model and grocery dominance create essential weekly consumer traffic. Walmart+ membership, Walmart Connect advertising, and e-commerce are transforming Walmart's margin profile beyond thin-margin traditional retail. Walmart's scale enables supplier negotiating power unmatched by any competitor — enabling consistently low prices that sustain consumer traffic through economic cycles. | Costco operates warehouse membership retail where annual fees ($65–$130) fund the majority of Costco's profit — allowing merchandise to be sold near-cost. With 876+ warehouses across the US, Canada, UK, and Asia, Costco serves 130M+ cardholders. Costco's Kirkland Signature private label ($60B+ annual sales) exceeds most CPG companies' brands in consumer trust. Costco's 93%+ membership renewal rate is among the highest loyalty metrics in retail. Costco's treasure hunt merchandise plus everyday staples creates an experience consumers engage with repeatedly. |
| Investor focus | Investors track US comp sales and traffic, Walmart+ membership, Walmart Connect advertising growth, and international markets (including Flipkart India). | Investors track membership fee revenue growth, membership renewal rates, same-store sales, and Costco's international expansion (especially Japan, Korea, Australia). |
- Grocery market leadership creates irreplaceable daily/weekly traffic — Americans buy food multiple times per week, and Walmart's EDLP grocery positioning is the #1 or #2 grocery option for most US consumers
- Advertising business transformation: Walmart Connect retail media is one of the fastest-growing ad platforms — monetizing 150M+ weekly US shopper intent data without Google or Meta mediation
- Scale in procurement creates structural COGS advantages — Walmart's $500B+ annual purchase volume compresses supplier prices below any competitor's cost structure
- Membership fee profit model is structurally unique: Costco earns $5B+ annually just from memberships — allowing it to sell merchandise at near-cost, making it literally impossible for competitors to match Costco's pricing without copying the membership model
- Kirkland Signature is the most trusted private label brand in retail — consumers actively seek Kirkland products rather than tolerating them as a substitution
- International expansion creates decades of warehouse count growth opportunities — Costco's model works in Japan, UK, Korea, and Australia with strong international renewal rates
- Amazon's grocery expansion through Whole Foods, Amazon Fresh, and Prime grocery delivery competes for Walmart's core grocery share
- Walmart's DTC/e-commerce profitability remains lower than physical stores — building e-commerce infrastructure requires significant ongoing investment
- International market complexity: Walmart's international segment includes Flipkart (India), China, Mexico, and other markets with varying performance and strategic clarity
- Costco's valuation is permanently elevated: at 45–55x P/E, the stock prices in perfection — any comp deceleration or renewal rate dip creates outsized stock reactions
- E-commerce is not Costco's strength — online ordering (Costco.com) exists but the treasure hunt experience that drives warehouse visits doesn't translate perfectly to digital
- Membership fee increases (Costco raised fees in 2024 for first time since 2017) must be accepted by 93%+ of renewing members or risk the loyalty that makes Costco's model work
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