HD vs LOW: Home Depot vs Lowe's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Home Depot is the larger, more Pro-oriented home improvement retailer with the SRS Distribution acquisition accelerating its contractor strategy; Lowe's is the #2 player with a strong margin improvement track record, more DIY exposure, and an active buyback program. Both are highly correlated to the US housing cycle and trade closely together.
Use this HD vs LOW comparison to choose between the home improvement market leader and a margin-improving challenger. Home Depot offers superior scale and the SRS Distribution Pro growth catalyst; Lowe's offers stronger recent margin expansion and more aggressive buyback-driven EPS growth from a lower market cap base.
LOW holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-14.72% vs -15.07%), though LOW has the better forward P/E setup (15.90x vs 20.59x for HD). LOW leads on both revenue growth (8.30%) and operating margin (13.36%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LOW (+22.26%) than for HD (+14.33%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the home improvement market leader with the most complete Pro contractor strategy
- Value the SRS Distribution acquisition as a structural deepening of HD's professional customer base
- Prefer the larger store network and brand recognition that comes with scale leadership
- Seek consistent long-term dividend growth backed by superior free cash flow
- Want home improvement exposure with a more aggressive buyback-driven EPS growth dynamic
- Value Lowe's margin expansion track record as evidence of operational discipline
- Prefer slightly more DIY mix as a balance to HD's heavier Pro contractor orientation
- Are comfortable with the #2 market position at a potential valuation discount to HD
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.5 | 52.1 |
| AI ranki | #433 | #406 |
| Latest closei | $328.98 | $207.28 |
| 1M returni | +14.21% | +10.69% |
| 3M returni | -1.31% | -1.33% |
| 6M returni | +0.05% | -13.20% |
| 1Y returni | -14.72% | -15.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.7K (-13.0%) started 2025-10-29 | $8.69K (-13.1%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $10.72K (+7.2%) started 2021-11-01 | $10.26K (+2.6%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $41.45K (+314.5%) started 2016-10-31 | $43.12K (+331.2%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $329.43B | $116.73B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 23.09 | 17.57 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.59 | 15.90 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.24 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.31 | 1.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $377.50 | $254.36 |
| Target upsidei | +14.33% | +22.26% |
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.70% | 8.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 4.60% | 0.00% |
| EPS growthi | +4.60% | 0.00% |
| FCF margini | +6.36% | +5.10% |
| Operating margini | 12.86% | 13.36% |
| Profit margini | 8.41% | 7.35% |
| ROIC proxyi | 104.30% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 104.30% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.82% | 2.40% |
| Payout ratioi | 64.80% | 41.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Debt/equityi | 380.26 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.21 |
Over the past year, HD and LOW have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.89), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -12.98% | -13.09% |
| CAGRi | -12.99% | -13.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.89% | 28.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.55 | -0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.80 | -0.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.10% | 37.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.87% | 27.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.75% | 17.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.65% | 20.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.02% | 5.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.09% | 7.76% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -2.08% | -4.30% |
| CAGRi | -0.42% | -0.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.88% | 26.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.07 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.10 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.73% | 37.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.25% | 27.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.13% | 15.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.41% | 17.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.85% | 6.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.68% | 11.67% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +230.69% | +263.91% |
| CAGRi | +12.71% | +13.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.26% | 29.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.99% | 48.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.25% | 27.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.21% | 11.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.80% | 14.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.79% | 24.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.90% | 34.42% |
| Category | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Home Depot, Inc. | Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Home Improvement Retail | Home Improvement Retail |
| Core business | World's largest home improvement retailer with approximately 2,300 US stores. Acquired SRS Distribution in 2024 to deepen its position with roofing, landscaping, and pool contractors. Pro contractors account for over 50% of sales. | Second-largest US home improvement retailer with approximately 1,750 stores. The 'Total Home Strategy' focuses on deepening Pro contractor penetration, improving DIY efficiency, and expanding online and installation services. |
| Investor focus | Pro contractor penetration deepening via SRS Distribution, comparable sales recovery as the housing market stabilises, supply chain efficiency, and margin durability. | Pro contractor penetration catching up to Home Depot, comparable sales trajectory, operating margin expansion, and capital return via buybacks and dividends. |
- Scale advantages — larger store base, stronger brand, and superior supply chain vs Lowe's
- SRS Distribution acquisition significantly deepens the Pro contractor relationship and adds a distribution channel
- Consistent 14+ year dividend growth record with exceptional free cash flow generation
- Strong operating margin improvement track record — management has successfully expanded margins over recent years
- More DIY-focused mix than HD provides some resilience when Pro spending cycles down
- Active buyback program has significantly reduced the share count, supporting EPS growth
- Housing turnover has slowed significantly — existing home sales are the primary demand driver for big-ticket home improvement
- SRS integration execution and leverage from the $18.25B acquisition
- Comparable sales remain soft as consumers defer large renovation projects
- Still trails Home Depot on Pro contractor penetration — closing that gap is the key long-term growth lever
- Housing cycle sensitivity similar to HD — existing home sales slowdown directly impacts big-ticket demand
- No comparable strategic acquisition to HD's SRS deal — Pro strategy execution is more organic
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