Data as of:
LIVE
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc. · Retail
$192.49
-12.50% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
WMT
Walmart Inc. · Retail
$106.73
-6.62% this month
Comparison scoreboard
WMT LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
LOW 50.6
WMT ✓53.1
1Y Returni
LOW -28.06%
WMT ✓+3.02%
Fwd P/Ei
LOW ✓15.90
WMT 31.99
Target Up.i
LOW +22.26%
WMT ✓+23.90%
Op. Margini
LOW ✓13.36%
WMT 4.99%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/19/2026
Quick take
LOW vs WMT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
LOW and WMT are both large-cap US retailers but serve entirely different consumer spending categories. Lowe's is a housing-cycle-sensitive home improvement retailer benefiting from remodeling and Pro contractor demand. Walmart is the dominant everyday grocery and household goods retailer benefiting from recession-resistant food spending and consumer trade-down. Lowe's offers housing recovery optionality; Walmart offers defensive earnings stability.
LOW vs WMT — Lowe's (the #2 US home improvement retailer gaining Pro contractor market share with operating margin expansion and significant upside to a housing market recovery) versus Walmart (the world's largest retailer with grocery market leadership, defensive everyday necessity spending, and growing retail media advertising at $650B+ revenue scale).
Live analysis · updated 9/19/2026
WMT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+3.02% vs -28.06%), though LOW has the better forward P/E setup (15.90x vs 31.99x for WMT). LOW leads on both revenue growth (8.30%) and operating margin (13.36%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +22.26% for LOW and +23.90% for WMT.
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
LOW
WMT
Recent returns
LOW
WMT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
LOW
Price target range
analyst mean$254.36
current price$192.49
+22.3% upside to analyst mean
WMT · 40 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
37 Buy / 5 Hold / 1 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$64.00
analyst mean$127.73
current price$106.73
+23.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
LOW may suit investors who:
- see housing market recovery as an imminent catalyst — when existing home sales normalize from multi-decade lows, Lowe's same-store sales should accelerate significantly from pent-up renovation demand
- value Lowe's Pro contractor market share gains as a structural earnings improvement beyond housing cycle recovery — Pro generates higher margins and repeat visits than DIY shoppers
- prefer buying a cyclically depressed retail stock with operating margin improvement trajectory vs Walmart's premium steady-state valuation
- are comfortable with continued housing cycle headwinds if mortgage rates remain elevated, operating leverage exposure to discretionary spending slowdowns, and Home Depot's stronger Pro competitive position
WMT may suit investors who:
- want defensive retail exposure with Walmart's grocery market leadership generating consistent foot traffic regardless of economic conditions — the ultimate recession-resistant large-cap retailer
- value Walmart Connect retail media advertising as a high-growth, high-margin business being built on Walmart's first-party shopper data from 140M+ weekly US visitors
- prefer Walmart's global diversification through Flipkart (India), Walmex (Mexico), and Sam's Club membership compounding vs Lowe's US-only housing cycle exposure
- are comfortable with premium valuation for Walmart's defensive earnings and advertising revenue growth, limited upside if consumer sentiment improves and shoppers trade up to premium alternatives
Performance & AI score
| Metric | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.6 | 53.1 |
| AI ranki | #508 | #354 |
| Latest closei | $192.49 | $106.73 |
| 1M returni | -12.50% | -6.62% |
| 6M returni | -16.20% | -11.86% |
| 1Y returni | -28.06% | +3.02% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.19K (-28.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $10.3K (+3.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.84K (+8.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $24.91K (+149.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $37.83K (+278.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $61.46K (+514.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $116.73B | $820.4B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.57 | 37.35 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.90 | 31.99 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.14 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.72 | 1.21 |
| Analyst targeti | $254.36 | $127.73 |
| Target upsidei | +22.26% | +23.90% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.30% | 5.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 0.00% | -9.10% |
| EPS growthi | 0.00% | -9.10% |
| FCF margini | +5.10% | +1.22% |
| Operating margini | 13.36% | 4.99% |
| Profit margini | 7.35% | 3.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 22.31% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 22.31% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.40% | 0.96% |
| Payout ratioi | 41.00% | 34.96% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 70.38 |
| Current ratioi | 1.10 | 0.77 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.21 | 0.20 |
Correlation
Over the past year, LOW and WMT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.31), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.31
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.31
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.31
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
LOW max drawdowni33.02%
WMT max drawdowni23.52%
LOW max wkly dropi7.76%
WMT max wkly dropi11.67%
5Y risk snapshot
LOW max drawdowni33.86%
WMT max drawdowni25.74%
LOW max wkly dropi11.67%
WMT max wkly dropi19.49%
10Y risk snapshot
LOW max drawdowni48.63%
WMT max drawdowni25.74%
LOW max wkly dropi34.42%
WMT max wkly dropi19.49%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -28.06% | +3.02% |
| CAGRi | -28.08% | +3.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.97% | 25.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.26 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.75 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.02% | 23.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.02% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.66% | 7.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.17% | 10.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.59% | 9.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.76% | 11.67% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +0.69% | +136.25% |
| CAGRi | +0.14% | +18.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.22% | 22.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.86% | 25.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.02% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.00% | 6.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.11% | 8.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.19% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.67% | 19.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +217.41% | +419.29% |
| CAGRi | +12.25% | +17.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.34% | 22.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.63% | 25.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.02% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.41% | 6.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.29% | 8.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.77% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.42% | 19.49% |
Business comparison
| Category | LOW | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Walmart Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Home Improvement Retail | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Lowe's is the second-largest US home improvement retailer with 1,700+ stores generating $85B+ in annual sales. Lowe's serves both DIY consumers (do-it-yourself) and Pro contractors (professional tradespeople). The Pro business — serving plumbers, electricians, painters, and remodelers — is Lowe's highest priority strategic investment under CEO Marvin Ellison's 'Total Home Strategy.' Lowe's has significantly improved operating margins through cost discipline and mix shift toward Pro, which generates larger basket sizes. Housing market conditions (home sales, renovation, remodeling) heavily influence Lowe's same-store sales. | Walmart is the world's largest retailer with $650B+ in annual revenue operating supercenters, Sam's Club membership warehouses, and a rapidly growing e-commerce and advertising business. Walmart's Supercenter format — combining grocery, general merchandise, pharmacy, and fuel — serves value-oriented US consumers who shop primarily for everyday necessities. Walmart+ membership (Walmart's Amazon Prime competitor) adds subscription revenue. Walmart Connect (retail media advertising) is a high-margin growing revenue stream. Internationally, Flipkart (India) and Walmex (Mexico) are significant businesses. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Lowe's same-store sales growth, Pro penetration as a percentage of sales, operating margin trajectory, housing market recovery timing, and per-share earnings growth through buybacks. | Investors focus on Walmart's US comparable store sales, grocery market share gains, e-commerce growth rate, Walmart Connect advertising revenue, and operating income growth as margins expand from mix shift. |
LOW strengths
- Pro contractor market share gains: Lowe's has invested significantly in Pro capabilities — dedicated Pro services desks, credit, delivery, and product assortment — gaining share in the high-value professional market
- Housing market recovery optionality: when housing activity recovers (existing home sales increase), Lowe's same-store sales benefit significantly — depressed housing turnover has created pent-up renovation demand
- Operating margin improvement: Lowe's has achieved meaningful margin gains through cost reduction and Pro mix shift — operating margins have risen from 9% toward 13%+ under the Total Home Strategy
WMT strengths
- Grocery market share dominance: Walmart is the largest US grocery retailer with consistent market share gains in food — grocery drives weekly traffic that generates general merchandise cross-sell in every visit
- Recession-resistant everyday necessity spending: Walmart's consumer base shops for food and household essentials regardless of economic conditions — Walmart gains market share in downturns as consumers trade down
- Walmart Connect advertising moat: first-party shopper data from 140M+ weekly US visitors enables precision retail media advertising — Walmart Connect is growing 30%+ with 80%+ gross margins
Risks to watch — LOW
- Housing market cycle sensitivity: Lowe's same-store sales are closely correlated to existing home sales — the 2022-2024 housing market freeze caused by mortgage rates has significantly pressured Lowe's comps
- Home Depot competition in Pro: Home Depot has a larger and more entrenched Pro contractor customer base — Lowe's is closing the gap but remains #2 in the Pro segment
- Macroeconomic consumer spending pressure: big-ticket discretionary home improvement (kitchen remodels, bathroom upgrades) are the first categories cut in economic downturns
Risks to watch — WMT
- Grocery price deflation compressing comps: food price normalization after inflation reduces Walmart's grocery ticket size, compressing same-store sales even with stable or growing unit volume
- E-commerce profitability timeline: Walmart's e-commerce business has improved but still earns lower margins than store operations — ongoing e-commerce investment pressures near-term margin expansion
- Income cohort concentration: Walmart's core shopper is lower-to-middle income — this shopper benefits Walmart in recessions but limits participation in premiumization trends benefiting Target or specialty retailers
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