Data as of:
LIVE
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · Luxury Beauty / Consumer Staples
$93.86
+11.38% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. · Beauty Retail
$543.73
+5.22% this month
Comparison scoreboard
ULTA LEADS 4/5AI Scorei
EL 41.8
ULTA ✓42.6
1Y Returni
EL ✓+6.45%
ULTA +2.82%
Fwd P/Ei
EL 26.49
ULTA ✓16.15
Target Up.i
EL +2.97%
ULTA ✓+20.60%
Op. Margini
EL 7.00%
ULTA ✓12.51%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
EL vs ULTA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
EL and ULTA are both in the beauty industry but at different layers — Estée Lauder is the premium brand owner selling through Ulta (among other channels), while Ulta Beauty is the retail distributor selling Estée Lauder's brands (among 600+ brands) directly to consumers. Estée Lauder's risk is China travel retail exposure and luxury brand pricing power. Ulta's risk is retail competition and discretionary spending. Both are quality businesses with different investment profiles.
EL vs ULTA — Estée Lauder (the luxury beauty brand conglomerate with 25+ prestige brands from La Mer to MAC, with heavy China and airport travel retail exposure that has impacted recovery timing) versus Ulta Beauty (the US beauty retail destination with 1,400+ stores, 40M+ loyalty members, and unique mass + prestige beauty combo format facing Sephora/Target competition).
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
ULTA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. EL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+6.45% vs +2.82%), though ULTA has the better forward P/E setup (16.15x vs 26.49x for EL). ULTA leads on both revenue growth (8.90%) and operating margin (12.51%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ULTA (+20.60%) than for EL (+2.97%).
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
EL
ULTA
Recent returns
EL
ULTA
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
EL
Price target range
analyst mean$106.46
current price$93.86
+3.0% upside to analyst mean
ULTA · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
19 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$350.00
analyst mean$624.08
current price$543.73
+20.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
EL may suit investors who:
- believe Estée Lauder's China and travel retail recovery will materialize as Chinese outbound tourism normalizes — the geographic revenue recovery story represents meaningful upside from depressed levels
- value Estée Lauder's luxury brand portfolio (La Mer, Jo Malone) as pricing-power assets with persistent demand among affluent consumers who don't trade down in economic cycles
- see Estée Lauder's track record of brand acquisition and development as a repeatable value creation mechanism — the multi-brand portfolio continues expanding through M&A
- are comfortable with China travel retail uncertainty, luxury consumer trading-down risk, and CEO transition execution risk during a challenging recovery period
ULTA may suit investors who:
- value Ulta's unique mass + prestige beauty format with 40M+ loyalty members creating durable shopping destination positioning that pure-play prestige competitors (Sephora) or mass competitors (Target) can't perfectly replicate
- believe Ulta's salon services create recurring visits that drive product sales — a physical retail differentiation that e-commerce competitors can't replicate
- prefer Ulta's US-centric business model with no China exposure — avoiding the geographic risk that has impacted Estée Lauder's recent results
- are comfortable with Sephora at Kohl's competition, Target beauty expansion, and DTC beauty brand growth reducing Ulta's brand discovery role for emerging beauty brands
Performance & AI score
| Metric | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.8 | 42.6 |
| AI ranki | #995 | #931 |
| Latest closei | $93.86 | $543.73 |
| 1M returni | +11.38% | +5.22% |
| 6M returni | +9.65% | +1.80% |
| 1Y returni | +6.45% | +2.82% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.67K (+6.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $10.17K (+1.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $3.37K (-66.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.71K (+47.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $13.33K (+33.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $23.18K (+131.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $37.41B | $22.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 206.78 | 18.83 |
| Forward P/Ei | 26.49 | 16.15 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.83 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.87 | 1.89 |
| Analyst targeti | $106.46 | $624.08 |
| Target upsidei | +2.97% | +20.60% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.30% | 8.90% |
| Earnings growthi | -45.50% | 13.30% |
| EPS growthi | -45.50% | +13.30% |
| FCF margini | +12.04% | +7.06% |
| Operating margini | 7.00% | 12.51% |
| Profit margini | 1.21% | 9.34% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.75% | 46.12% |
| Return on equityi | 4.75% | 46.12% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.35% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 280.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| Debt/equityi | 242.93 | 95.47 |
| Current ratioi | 1.22 | 1.34 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.81 | 0.20 |
Correlation
Over the past year, EL and ULTA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.25
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.38
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.38
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
EL max drawdowni43.79%
ULTA max drawdowni36.23%
EL max wkly dropi21.75%
ULTA max wkly dropi20.23%
5Y risk snapshot
EL max drawdowni85.82%
ULTA max drawdowni44.56%
EL max wkly dropi27.39%
ULTA max wkly dropi20.23%
10Y risk snapshot
EL max drawdowni85.82%
ULTA max drawdowni64.92%
EL max wkly dropi27.39%
ULTA max wkly dropi41.90%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.66% | +1.67% |
| CAGRi | +6.67% | +1.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.30% | 34.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.79% | 36.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.53% | 23.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.01% | 16.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.55% | 20.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.19% | 14.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.75% | 20.23% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -68.10% | +47.06% |
| CAGRi | -20.45% | +8.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.39% | 34.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.39 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.52 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.82% | 44.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 73.41% | 23.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 55.49% | 16.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 60.28% | 20.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.90% | 15.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.39% | 20.23% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +19.33% | +131.82% |
| CAGRi | +1.78% | +8.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.21% | 38.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.16 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.82% | 64.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 73.41% | 23.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.67% | 17.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 43.03% | 22.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.90% | 29.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.39% | 41.90% |
Business comparison
| Category | EL | ULTA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | Ulta Beauty, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Household & Personal Products | Specialty Retail |
| Core business | The Estée Lauder Companies is the world's premier multi-brand luxury beauty company owning MAC, Clinique, La Mer, Jo Malone, TomFord Beauty, Bobbi Brown, AVEDA, Bumble and bumble, and 25+ brands across skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care. Estée Lauder's brands sell through prestige department stores, specialty beauty retailers (including Ulta Beauty), travel retail (airports), and direct-to-consumer channels. China has been a critical growth market — travel retail in Asia (Chinese tourists buying at airport duty-free) is a major revenue driver that was severely impacted when China reopened post-COVID with lower tourism than expected. | Ulta Beauty is the US's largest beauty retailer operating 1,400+ stores and online with a unique format combining mass and prestige beauty in one destination — selling everything from $5 NYX products to $100 Charlotte Tilbury foundations alongside salon services in every store. Ulta's Ultamate Rewards loyalty program has 40M+ members and is one of the highest-engagement retail loyalty programs in the US. Sephora (Kohl's partnership) and Target's beauty sections are increasing in-store competition for Ulta's mid-market beauty shopper. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Estée Lauder's China recovery timeline, travel retail normalization, gross margin recovery from over-inventoried channels, and which premium brands maintain pricing power vs mass beauty competition. | Investors focus on Ulta's comparable store sales growth, loyalty program member retention and transaction frequency, margin resilience as competition intensifies, and international expansion plans. |
EL strengths
- Luxury beauty brand portfolio depth: La Mer ($300+ face cream), MAC, Clinique, and 25+ brands covering every prestige beauty segment provide diversification and pricing power in premium beauty
- Travel retail premium positioning: airport duty-free is a high-margin channel where luxury beauty outperforms — Chinese tourists' airport purchases of La Mer and Jo Malone generate premium margins
- Brand acquisition track record: Estée Lauder has built a multi-brand empire through acquisitions (TomFord Beauty, MAC) — its brand discovery and incubation capability is a durable growth driver
ULTA strengths
- Beauty destination one-stop-shop: Ulta's combined mass + prestige format under one roof creates a unique value proposition — customers buy MAC lipstick and CeraVe moisturizer in the same trip
- 40M+ member loyalty program: Ultamate Rewards is one of retail's highest-engagement loyalty programs — members spend 3x more than non-members and the data enables personalized marketing
- Salon in every store: Ulta's in-store salon services create a recurring visit reason beyond product browsing — salon appointments drive foot traffic and product discovery simultaneously
Risks to watch — EL
- China recovery slower than expected: Estée Lauder's heavy China and Asia travel retail exposure was severely hit when post-COVID China reopening tourism was below expectations — revenue declined materially
- Prestige beauty facing mass trading-down: consumers in inflationary environments have traded down from Clinique to drugstore alternatives — luxury positioning that was once stable is facing consumer pressure
- CEO succession and strategy uncertainty: Estée Lauder underwent CEO transition — strategy clarity and execution continuity amid a challenging China recovery created investor uncertainty
Risks to watch — ULTA
- Sephora at Kohl's and Target Beauty Shop-in-Shops intensifying competition: Sephora's Kohl's rollout and Target's expanded beauty sections put prestige beauty products in more convenient, high-traffic locations that compete with Ulta visits
- Digital beauty shift favoring DTC brands: emerging beauty brands launch DTC or on Amazon first rather than pursuing retail distribution — Ulta's brand discovery role may weaken as consumers find new brands online
- Discretionary spending sensitivity: beauty is somewhat discretionary — consumer confidence and spending capacity affects Ulta's transaction frequency among loyalty members in economic downturns
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