ULTA vs LULU Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ulta Beauty and Lululemon are both premium consumer brands with exceptionally loyal customers and strong unit economics in their respective categories. Ulta dominates US beauty retail through its loyalty program and unique prestige-plus-mass model. Lululemon dominates premium athletic apparel through brand prestige and community engagement. Neither competes with the other — they serve the same affluent female consumer in different spending categories.
ULTA vs LULU is a comparison of two premium discretionary brands serving similar affluent female consumers in different categories — Ulta with beauty retail loyalty economics and Lululemon with premium athletic apparel brand prestige — both facing different challenges as their respective core US markets mature.
ULTA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ULTA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+2.82% vs -39.20%), though LULU has the better forward P/E setup (10.76x vs 16.15x for ULTA). ULTA leads on both revenue growth (8.90%) and operating margin (12.51%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ULTA (+20.60%) than for LULU (+5.60%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the dominant US beauty specialty retailer with 43M+ loyalty members and the unique prestige-plus-mass model
- value Target partnership extending Ulta's reach into 2,000+ Target locations as a low-capital growth vector
- want consumer discretionary exposure to beauty which shows resilience across economic cycles
- are comfortable with Sephora competition intensifying as LVMH invests in US market share and digital beauty channels grow
- prefer the premium athletic apparel brand with pricing power at $120+ for core products and strong brand loyalty
- value China and international expansion as long-term growth vectors beyond a maturing North American core market
- want exposure to men's athletic apparel as a fast-growing incremental revenue stream for Lululemon
- are comfortable with North American comp slowdown and premium athletic brand competition from Alo Yoga and Vuori
| Metric | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.6 | 37.2 |
| AI ranki | #931 | #1519 |
| Latest closei | $543.73 | $99.39 |
| 1M returni | +5.22% | -16.49% |
| 6M returni | +1.80% | -39.97% |
| 1Y returni | +2.82% | -39.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.17K (+1.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $5.85K (-41.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $14.71K (+47.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $2.37K (-76.3%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $23.18K (+131.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $15.1K (+51.0%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $22.13B | $13.69B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.83 | 9.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.15 | 10.76 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.83 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 1.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $624.08 | $127.35 |
| Target upsidei | +20.60% | +5.60% |
| Metric | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.90% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.30% | -35.00% |
| EPS growthi | +13.30% | -35.00% |
| FCF margini | +7.06% | +10.12% |
| Operating margini | 12.51% | 11.21% |
| Profit margini | 9.34% | 13.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 46.12% | 32.03% |
| Return on equityi | 46.12% | 32.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.47 | 44.26 |
| Current ratioi | 1.34 | 2.23 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 0.94 |
Over the past year, ULTA and LULU have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +1.67% | -41.45% |
| CAGRi | +1.67% | -41.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 44.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | -1.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | -1.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.23% | 55.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.07% | 53.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.20% | 24.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.50% | 30.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.24% | 17.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.23% | 19.31% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +47.06% | -76.31% |
| CAGRi | +8.03% | -25.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.74% | 43.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | -0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | -0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.56% | 81.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.07% | 80.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.38% | 38.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.50% | 43.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.34% | 19.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.23% | 25.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +131.82% | +51.03% |
| CAGRi | +8.77% | +4.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.59% | 41.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.92% | 81.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.07% | 80.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.78% | 23.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.34% | 32.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 29.55% | 23.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.90% | 30.43% |
| Category | ULTA | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ulta Beauty, Inc. | Lululemon Athletica Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Specialty Retail | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Ulta Beauty is the largest US beauty retailer, operating 1,400+ stores offering cosmetics, skincare, hair care, fragrance, and salon services. Its Ultamate Rewards loyalty program has 43M+ members and drives over 95% of revenue. Ulta's unique model combines prestige and mass-market beauty under one roof alongside salon services. A Target partnership extends Ulta Beauty shops inside Target locations, dramatically expanding its addressable reach. | Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel company selling yoga pants, leggings, running gear, and athletic wear at premium price points ($100–$150+ for bottoms) primarily to health-conscious women and increasingly men. Its store experience, community fitness events, and product quality create strong brand loyalty. International expansion (China, Europe) and men's apparel are growing revenue vectors. Lululemon MIRROR (connected fitness) was an unsuccessful diversification attempt that was written off. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable store sales, loyalty member count and spend per member, salon revenue, Target partnership shop performance, and gross margin from a mix shift toward prestige beauty. | Investors track comparable store sales, international revenue growth (especially China), men's apparel market share gains, new product category expansion, and operating margin as the premium brand scales. |
- 43M+ loyalty member program captures virtually all US beauty enthusiasts at meaningful purchase frequency
- Unique prestige-plus-mass under one roof model is not replicated by Sephora (prestige-only) or CVS/drugstores (mass-only)
- Target partnership extends Ulta Beauty's reach into Target's 2,000+ store locations, dramatically increasing brand touchpoints
- Premium athletic apparel brand with exceptionally loyal customer base willing to pay $120+ for leggings as a status and performance purchase
- China and international expansion provides meaningful long-term growth runway beyond the maturing North American market
- Men's apparel category is growing from a smaller base and provides significant incremental revenue potential from an underrepresented demographic
- Beauty market showed post-COVID normalization pressure with comparable store sales softening as the pandemic-era beauty demand surge faded
- Sephora's exclusive Target partnership and aggressive store growth compete for the same beauty shopper
- International expansion is limited — Ulta has far less global presence than Sephora (owned by LVMH) or other beauty brands
- North American comparable store sales growth has slowed as the brand approaches saturation in its core demographic
- MIRROR connected fitness write-down demonstrated the risk of brand extensions beyond core athletic apparel expertise
- Competing premium athletic brands (Alo Yoga, Vuori, Nike premium lines) are gaining wallet share in the same premium consumer segment
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