ULTA vs ELF Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ulta Beauty and e.l.f. Beauty both compete in the beauty industry but from different angles: Ulta operates as a specialty retailer selling a broad mix of mass and prestige brands through stores and online, while e.l.f. Beauty is a fast-growing mass-market cosmetics brand known for viral marketing and value pricing.
Ulta Beauty offers exposure to a diversified beauty retail platform spanning mass and prestige brands, while e.l.f. Beauty offers a higher-growth, brand-concentrated bet on value-priced cosmetics gaining share through social media marketing. Consider whether you prefer retail diversification or a faster-growing, brand-specific growth story.
ULTA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ULTA leads on both 1-year return (+6.22%) and forward P/E quality (16.15x vs 27.97x for ELF), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ELF leads on both revenue growth (35.50%) and operating margin (14.31%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ULTA (+20.60%) than for ELF (-7.89%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure to beauty retail across mass and prestige brand categories
- Value a large, engaged loyalty program that supports repeat customer behavior
- Believe in-store experiential elements like salon services can differentiate against e-commerce competitors
- Prefer a more established, retail-anchored business over a single fast-growing brand
- Want higher-growth exposure to a value-priced cosmetics brand gaining market share
- Believe viral social media marketing can sustain outsized brand awareness relative to spend
- Are comfortable with a valuation that embeds continued high growth expectations
- Favor a nimble, single-brand growth story over a diversified multi-brand retail platform
| Metric | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.6 | 38.6 |
| AI ranki | #905 | #1204 |
| Latest closei | $564.12 | $109.67 |
| 1M returni | +4.57% | +26.98% |
| 6M returni | -13.70% | +32.87% |
| 1Y returni | +6.22% | -15.74% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.65K (+6.5%) started 2025-09-04 | $8.2K (-18.0%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $14.87K (+48.7%) started 2021-09-07 | $35.5K (+255.0%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $22.6K (+126.0%) started 2016-09-06 | $41.38K (+313.8%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $22.13B | $6.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.83 | 109.19 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.15 | 27.97 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.83 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 21.79 |
| Analyst targeti | $624.08 | $98.56 |
| Target upsidei | +20.60% | -7.89% |
| Metric | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.90% | 35.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.30% | 93.10% |
| EPS growthi | +13.30% | +93.10% |
| FCF margini | +7.06% | +31.48% |
| Operating margini | 12.51% | 14.31% |
| Profit margini | 9.34% | -0.23% |
| ROIC proxyi | 46.12% | -0.29% |
| Return on equityi | 46.12% | -0.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.85 | 2.39 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.47 | 79.50 |
| Current ratioi | 1.34 | 3.07 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 1.81 |
Over the past year, ULTA and ELF have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.28), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.54% | -17.99% |
| CAGRi | +6.55% | -18.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.70% | 66.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | -0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.32 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.23% | 66.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.19% | 25.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.37% | 41.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.99% | 44.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.24% | 35.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.23% | 39.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +48.71% | +255.03% |
| CAGRi | +8.27% | +28.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.71% | 58.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.56% | 77.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.19% | 49.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.23% | 28.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.40% | 38.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.34% | 35.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.23% | 39.63% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +125.97% | +313.85% |
| CAGRi | +8.50% | +15.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.58% | 55.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.92% | 77.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.19% | 49.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.73% | 33.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.30% | 40.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 29.55% | 35.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.90% | 41.86% |
| Category | ULTA | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ulta Beauty, Inc. | e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Specialty Retail | Household & Personal Products |
| Core business | A specialty beauty retailer operating physical stores and an e-commerce platform that sells a broad assortment of cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance products spanning mass and prestige brands under one roof. | A mass-market cosmetics company that develops and markets affordable beauty and skincare products, leveraging viral social media marketing and rapid product development to compete with larger, more established beauty brands. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales trends, loyalty program engagement, and the balance between mass and prestige brand mix as it navigates a more competitive beauty retail landscape. | Revenue growth rate and market share gains in the mass beauty category, marketing effectiveness on social platforms, and margin trends as the brand scales. |
- Broad in-store and online assortment spanning mass and prestige brands attracts a wide range of beauty shoppers to one destination
- Large, engaged loyalty program provides valuable customer data and repeat purchase behavior
- Salon services integrated into stores create an experiential draw that differentiates it from pure e-commerce competitors
- Rapid, viral social media marketing has driven outsized brand awareness relative to its marketing spend
- Value-oriented pricing strategy has captured meaningful market share from larger, higher-priced incumbent beauty brands
- Agile product development process allows faster response to emerging beauty trends than larger competitors
- Same-store sales growth has slowed as beauty retail competition intensifies from both mass retailers and direct-to-consumer brands
- Physical store footprint carries fixed costs that pressure margins if traffic trends soften
- Faces growing competition from e.l.f. and other value-focused brands gaining share in the mass beauty category
- High growth expectations are embedded in its valuation, leaving less room for error if growth decelerates
- Success depends heavily on maintaining social media relevance and marketing effectiveness, which can shift quickly
- Faces potential margin pressure as it scales and competes against both mass retailers and premium beauty brands
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