DLTR vs FIVE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DLTR is a much larger discount retail chain serving broad consumer value needs but navigating Family Dollar challenges, while FIVE is a smaller, still-expanding specialty value retailer with a highly focused teen demographic and experiential shopping model. Both serve discount consumers but with very different customer bases and growth profiles.
DLTR vs FIVE compares a large, complex multi-banner discount retailer working through strategic restructuring against a smaller, more focused teen-oriented value retailer still in an active store expansion phase.
FIVE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FIVE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+50.63% vs +13.94%), though DLTR has the better forward P/E setup (16.28x vs 24.46x for FIVE). FIVE leads on both revenue growth (32.50%) and operating margin (12.00%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for FIVE (+12.25%) than for DLTR (+5.50%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want large-scale discount retail exposure and see value in potential Family Dollar separation unlocking hidden value
- Believe Dollar Tree banner will benefit from consumer trade-down during economic softness
- See Dollar Tree's massive store footprint as a durable distribution and purchasing advantage
- Want exposure to a still-expanding specialty value retailer with a distinct teen demographic focus
- See meaningful store whitespace remaining for Five Below's next growth phase
- Value the experiential, trend-driven shopping model as a differentiator versus general discount retailers
| Metric | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.5 | 53.1 |
| AI ranki | #938 | #359 |
| Latest closei | $111.96 | $234.14 |
| 1M returni | -15.08% | -3.28% |
| 6M returni | +6.06% | -0.44% |
| 1Y returni | +13.94% | +50.63% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.39K (+13.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $15.06K (+50.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $12.77K (+27.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $12.44K (+24.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $13.96K (+39.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $57.98K (+479.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $24.07B | $13.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.72 | 30.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.28 | 24.46 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.53 | 2.84 |
| Analyst targeti | $135.32 | $274.19 |
| Target upsidei | +5.50% | +12.25% |
| Metric | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.00% | 32.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 197.20% | 195.60% |
| EPS growthi | +197.20% | +195.60% |
| FCF margini | +5.23% | +8.41% |
| Operating margini | 6.21% | 12.00% |
| Profit margini | 8.04% | 8.67% |
| ROIC proxyi | 46.03% | 21.13% |
| Return on equityi | 46.03% | 21.13% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equityi | 223.94 | 86.43 |
| Current ratioi | 1.13 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.32 | 1.13 |
Over the past year, DLTR and FIVE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.45), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +13.94% | +50.63% |
| CAGRi | +13.95% | +50.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.84% | 39.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 1.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.53% | 28.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.71% | 10.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.94% | 6.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.52% | 10.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.62% | 13.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.41% | 17.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +27.69% | +24.39% |
| CAGRi | +5.02% | +4.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.73% | 47.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.84% | 74.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.68% | 10.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.49% | 27.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.64% | 33.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.16% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.38% | 27.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +39.57% | +479.84% |
| CAGRi | +3.39% | +19.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.19% | 46.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.22 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.84% | 76.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.68% | 10.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.06% | 21.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.00% | 28.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.16% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.38% | 41.16% |
| Category | DLTR | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Dollar Tree, Inc. | Five Below, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Specialty Retail |
| Core business | Dollar Tree operates the Dollar Tree (mostly $1.25 price point items) and Family Dollar (multi-price value retail) banners, serving price-sensitive consumers across the U.S. with household supplies, food, health and beauty, and seasonal products. | Five Below is a specialty value retailer focused on teen and pre-teen customers, selling trendy merchandise across categories like tech accessories, beauty, toys, sports, and party goods — historically at price points predominantly between $1 and $5, now extending to $10 and beyond. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Dollar Tree's same-store sales performance across both banners, the ongoing strategic review of Family Dollar (with potential for a sale or spin-off), and traffic trends from value-seeking consumers. | Investors track Five Below's comparable sales growth, new store openings (a major growth driver in its expansion phase), traffic trends among its target teen and pre-teen demographic, and merchandise category hit rates. |
- Dollar Tree banner benefits as inflation drives more consumers toward value-priced essentials
- Nationwide footprint of thousands of stores provides scale in purchasing and distribution
- Family Dollar separation could unlock value by allowing each banner to focus on its distinct customer and format
- Unique focus on teen and pre-teen consumers creates a defensible, trend-driven shopping experience not easily replicated by mass merchants
- Highly experiential, treasure-hunt retail model drives repeat visit frequency among core customers
- Still in an active store expansion phase with significant white space remaining in the U.S.
- Family Dollar has been a persistent underperformer — profitability, store quality, and customer satisfaction have lagged Dollar Tree
- Dollar Tree raised its price point from $1.00 to $1.25, which reduced some of its psychological value appeal
- Shoplifting and shrinkage have been significant cost headwinds across the discount retail segment
- Teen and pre-teen consumer trends are inherently volatile — missed merchandise trends can sharply affect traffic
- Price point creep above $5 risks diluting the core value proposition that built the brand
- Same-store sales have softened as the company manages merchandise execution and macro consumer pressures
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