LIVE
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$65.40
-21.44% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
FIVE
Five Below, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$191.00
-3.77% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
OLLI
2
FIVE
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
OLLI 39.5
FIVE ✓50.7
1Y Return
OLLI -49.00%
FIVE ✓+42.21%
Fwd P/E
OLLI ✓12.90
FIVE 19.59
Target Up.
OLLI ✓+72.17%
FIVE +36.30%
Op. Margin
OLLI N/A
FIVE N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
OLLI vs FIVE: Ollie's Bargain Outlet vs Five Below Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an off-price closeout retailer with a loyal value-seeking customer base and significant whitespace to open new stores, while Five Below is a teen-focused trend merchandise retailer with a large loyal customer demographic. Both are high-quality value retail concepts at different valuations.
OLLI vs FIVE is closeout bargain merchandise versus teen trend retail — Ollie's wins if closeout merchandise supply remains strong and new store openings in underserved markets continue; Five Below wins if teen consumer spending stays strong and Five Beyond expands the average transaction.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
OLLI and FIVE are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. FIVE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+42.21% vs -49.00%), though OLLI has the better forward P/E setup (12.90x vs 19.59x for FIVE). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OLLI (+72.17%) than for FIVE (+36.30%).
Normalized 1Y performance
OLLI
FIVE
Recent returns
OLLI
FIVE
Analyst price targets & sentiment
OLLI · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$70.00
analyst high$152.00
analyst mean$112.60
current price$65.40
+72.2% upside to analyst mean
FIVE · 21 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$210.00
analyst high$325.00
analyst mean$260.33
current price$191.00
+36.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
OLLI may suit investors who:
- →want a closeout retail concept with genuine pricing power from opportunistic merchandise buying
- →believe Ollie's Army loyalty program drives durable traffic regardless of macro conditions
- →prefer a large whitespace story with new store openings as a primary earnings growth driver
- →value a retail model that is structurally difficult to replicate online
FIVE may suit investors who:
- →want teen-focused retail with strong brand loyalty and frequent traffic drivers
- →believe Five Beyond expansion increases average ticket and per-store economics
- →prefer trend-driven retail with high-frequency repeat visits from a sticky demographic
- →are comfortable with shoplifting and shrink headwinds as industry-wide value retail challenges
Performance & AI score
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.5 | 50.7 |
| AI rank | #1231 | #475 |
| Latest close | $65.40 | $191.00 |
| 1M return | -21.44% | -3.77% |
| 6M return | -45.28% | -6.19% |
| 1Y return | -49.00% | +42.21% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.1K (-49.0%) started 2025-07-14 | $14.22K (+42.2%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $7.34K (-26.6%) started 2021-07-14 | $10.09K (+0.9%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $26.65K (+166.5%) started 2016-07-14 | $40.44K (+304.4%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $3.95B | $10.56B |
| Trailing P/E | 16.19 | 24.09 |
| Forward P/E | 12.90 | 19.59 |
| Price/Sales | 1.45 | 2.08 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.61 | 2.26 |
| Analyst target | $112.60 | $260.33 |
| Target upside | +72.17% | +36.30% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 14.20% | 32.50% |
| Earnings growth | 19.50% | 195.60% |
| EPS growth | +19.50% | +195.60% |
| FCF margin | +4.97% | +8.41% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 9.13% | 8.67% |
| ROIC proxy | 13.78% | 21.13% |
| Return on equity | 13.78% | 21.13% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.47 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equity | 37.58 | 86.43 |
| Current ratio | 2.32 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratio | 0.61 | 1.13 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
OLLI max drawdown56.05%
FIVE max drawdown28.85%
OLLI max wkly drop19.51%
FIVE max wkly drop17.56%
5Y risk snapshot
OLLI max drawdown59.48%
FIVE max drawdown76.40%
OLLI max wkly drop22.64%
FIVE max wkly drop27.32%
10Y risk snapshot
OLLI max drawdown66.23%
FIVE max drawdown76.40%
OLLI max wkly drop30.54%
FIVE max wkly drop41.16%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -49.00% | +42.21% |
| CAGR | -49.03% | +42.24% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.63 | 0.98 | |
| Max drawdown | 56.05% | 28.85% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.04% | 13.78% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.51% | 17.56% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -26.65% | +0.90% |
| CAGR | -6.01% | +0.18% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.02 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 59.48% | 76.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.47% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.64% | 27.32% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +166.50% | +304.40% |
| CAGR | +10.30% | +15.00% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.34 | 0.44 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.23% | 76.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.53% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.54% | 41.16% |
Business comparison
| Category | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | Five Below, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Off-price closeout retailer selling brand-name merchandise at deep discounts. Ollie's buys excess inventory, overstocks, and closeouts from manufacturers and retailers, passing savings to value-conscious shoppers. | Discount retailer targeting teens and tweens with products priced $1–$5 (and some higher through Five Beyond). Five Below sells trend-driven items: toys, accessories, tech gadgets, snacks, beauty, and seasonal merchandise. |
| Investor focus | New store openings, comparable-store sales, merchandise margins on closeout deals, and whitespace for expansion in underserved markets. | Teen trend sensitivity, comparable-store productivity, Five Beyond higher-priced product expansion, and international expansion potential. |
OLLI strengths
- →Closeout merchandise model creates genuinely unique product mix that cannot be replicated by Amazon or big-box retailers
- →Ollie's Army loyalty program has 15M+ members driving traffic and brand loyalty
- →Significant whitespace for new stores across the US South and Midwest where Ollie's is underpenetrated
FIVE strengths
- →Strong brand affinity among teens and tweens — a loyal demographic that shops frequently and returns with parents
- →Five Below's price point model creates a 'treasure hunt' experience that drives repeat visits
- →Large runway for new store openings across the US plus international expansion potential
Risks to watch — OLLI
- →Closeout merchandise availability depends on supplier inventory cycles — supply can be lumpy
- →Comparable-store sales can be inconsistent due to variable merchandise mix rather than structural changes
- →Store expansion requires new markets with sufficient deal-seeking consumer density
Risks to watch — FIVE
- →Teen consumer spending is cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions
- →Shoplifting and shrink have been elevated across value retail, affecting margins
- →Trend sensitivity means hit products drive disproportionate performance — miss on trends and comps suffer
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