OLLI vs FIVE: Ollie's Bargain Outlet vs Five Below Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an off-price closeout retailer with a loyal value-seeking customer base and significant whitespace to open new stores, while Five Below is a teen-focused trend merchandise retailer with a large loyal customer demographic. Both are high-quality value retail concepts at different valuations.
OLLI vs FIVE is closeout bargain merchandise versus teen trend retail — Ollie's wins if closeout merchandise supply remains strong and new store openings in underserved markets continue; Five Below wins if teen consumer spending stays strong and Five Beyond expands the average transaction.
FIVE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FIVE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+46.30% vs -24.20%), though OLLI has the better forward P/E setup (14.81x vs 24.46x for FIVE). FIVE leads on both revenue growth (32.50%) and operating margin (12.00%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OLLI (+43.50%) than for FIVE (+12.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a closeout retail concept with genuine pricing power from opportunistic merchandise buying
- believe Ollie's Army loyalty program drives durable traffic regardless of macro conditions
- prefer a large whitespace story with new store openings as a primary earnings growth driver
- value a retail model that is structurally difficult to replicate online
- want teen-focused retail with strong brand loyalty and frequent traffic drivers
- believe Five Beyond expansion increases average ticket and per-store economics
- prefer trend-driven retail with high-frequency repeat visits from a sticky demographic
- are comfortable with shoplifting and shrink headwinds as industry-wide value retail challenges
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.4 | 51.8 |
| AI ranki | #1144 | #362 |
| Latest closei | $95.56 | $223.23 |
| 1M returni | +30.18% | -5.44% |
| 3M returni | +42.70% | +12.91% |
| 6M returni | +1.07% | -0.81% |
| 1Y returni | -24.20% | +46.30% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.76K (-22.4%) started 2025-10-16 | $14.69K (+46.9%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $14.37K (+43.7%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.61K (+16.1%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $35.55K (+255.5%) started 2016-10-17 | $61.82K (+518.2%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $4.47B | $13.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.28 | 30.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.81 | 24.46 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.77 | 2.84 |
| Analyst targeti | $106.00 | $274.19 |
| Target upsidei | +43.50% | +12.25% |
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.20% | 32.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 19.50% | 195.60% |
| EPS growthi | +19.50% | +195.60% |
| FCF margini | +4.97% | +8.41% |
| Operating margini | 10.56% | 12.00% |
| Profit margini | 9.13% | 8.67% |
| ROIC proxyi | 13.78% | 21.13% |
| Return on equityi | 13.78% | 21.13% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.50 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equityi | 37.58 | 86.43 |
| Current ratioi | 2.32 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.61 | 1.13 |
Over the past year, OLLI and FIVE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -22.40% | +46.90% |
| CAGRi | -22.42% | +46.98% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.33% | 38.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.52 | 1.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.71 | 1.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.89% | 28.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.71% | 15.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.11% | 8.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.09% | 11.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.04% | 13.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.51% | 17.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +43.73% | +16.13% |
| CAGRi | +7.54% | +3.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.32% | 47.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.05% | 74.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.13% | 15.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.97% | 28.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.90% | 34.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.47% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.64% | 27.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +255.49% | +518.19% |
| CAGRi | +13.53% | +19.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.47% | 46.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.23% | 76.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.13% | 15.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.61% | 21.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 29.99% | 28.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.53% | 27.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.54% | 41.16% |
| Category | OLLI | FIVE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | Five Below, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Specialty Retail |
| Core business | Off-price closeout retailer selling brand-name merchandise at deep discounts. Ollie's buys excess inventory, overstocks, and closeouts from manufacturers and retailers, passing savings to value-conscious shoppers. | Discount retailer targeting teens and tweens with products priced $1–$5 (and some higher through Five Beyond). Five Below sells trend-driven items: toys, accessories, tech gadgets, snacks, beauty, and seasonal merchandise. |
| Investor focus | New store openings, comparable-store sales, merchandise margins on closeout deals, and whitespace for expansion in underserved markets. | Teen trend sensitivity, comparable-store productivity, Five Beyond higher-priced product expansion, and international expansion potential. |
- Closeout merchandise model creates genuinely unique product mix that cannot be replicated by Amazon or big-box retailers
- Ollie's Army loyalty program has 15M+ members driving traffic and brand loyalty
- Significant whitespace for new stores across the US South and Midwest where Ollie's is underpenetrated
- Strong brand affinity among teens and tweens — a loyal demographic that shops frequently and returns with parents
- Five Below's price point model creates a 'treasure hunt' experience that drives repeat visits
- Large runway for new store openings across the US plus international expansion potential
- Closeout merchandise availability depends on supplier inventory cycles — supply can be lumpy
- Comparable-store sales can be inconsistent due to variable merchandise mix rather than structural changes
- Store expansion requires new markets with sufficient deal-seeking consumer density
- Teen consumer spending is cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions
- Shoplifting and shrink have been elevated across value retail, affecting margins
- Trend sensitivity means hit products drive disproportionate performance — miss on trends and comps suffer
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