TJX vs COST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TJX and COST are both defensive retail models that thrive in value-seeking consumer environments. TJX's off-price treasure hunt is counter-cyclical and e-commerce resistant. Costco's membership model with 93%+ renewal creates recurring, growing revenue from loyal bulk shoppers. TJX trades at a lower valuation than Costco; Costco commands a premium for its extraordinary membership loyalty and compounding membership fee growth.
TJX vs COST — TJX Companies (the off-price treasure hunt retailer with opportunistic inventory sourcing from 21,000+ global vendors providing a changing, deeply discounted selection that e-commerce cannot replicate) versus Costco (the membership warehouse club generating $4.6B+ annual membership fee revenue with 93%+ renewal rate, Kirkland private label, and near-zero merchandise markup that makes membership the profit center).
TJX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-2.38% vs -7.39%), though TJX has the better forward P/E setup (23.47x vs 41.72x for COST). On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while TJX maintains the higher operating margin (10.91%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TJX (+26.11%) than for COST (+13.94%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- value TJX's e-commerce resistance — the treasure hunt shopping experience requires physical store visits that online off-price competitors struggle to replicate
- see counter-cyclicality as a portfolio hedge — TJX's opportunistic sourcing benefits from retail overproduction and brand distress that increases in economic downturns
- prefer lower valuation (20-25x earnings) vs Costco's 45-55x premium, providing more margin of safety for a high-quality defensive retailer
- are comfortable with inventory sourcing risk from brand inventory rationalization and online resale competition from ThredUp and eBay
- value Costco's membership model as a consumer loyalty flywheel — 93%+ renewal rates in the US demonstrate extraordinary customer retention that provides recurring revenue regardless of economic cycle
- see Kirkland Signature as a private label defensibility moat — Costco shoppers buy Kirkland as a trusted quality brand that increases loyalty beyond any single external vendor relationship
- believe Costco's inflation-proof value proposition (bulk pricing 20%+ below retail) creates recession-resistant consumer spend as budget-conscious households prioritize Costco value
- are comfortable with premium 45-55x P/E valuation, e-commerce execution challenges, and international expansion execution risk in exchange for the best membership loyalty metrics in retail
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.4 | 61.4 |
| AI ranki | #407 | #125 |
| Latest closei | $130.06 | $922.77 |
| 1M returni | -4.95% | -3.49% |
| 6M returni | -16.16% | -6.21% |
| 1Y returni | -7.39% | -2.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.19K (-8.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.78K (-2.2%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $20.52K (+105.2%) started 2021-09-27 | $22K (+120.0%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $44.73K (+347.3%) started 2016-09-26 | $85.25K (+752.5%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $149.27B | $419.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.02 | 47.63 |
| Forward P/Ei | 23.47 | 41.72 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.51 | 1.67 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.55 | 1.42 |
| Analyst targeti | $170.40 | $1,077.31 |
| Target upsidei | +26.11% | +13.94% |
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.40% | 21.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 23.60% | 45.50% |
| EPS growthi | +23.60% | +45.50% |
| FCF margini | +7.05% | +2.37% |
| Operating margini | 10.91% | 3.67% |
| Profit margini | 9.73% | 3.01% |
| ROIC proxyi | 62.17% | 29.15% |
| Return on equityi | 62.17% | 29.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.43% | 0.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.50% | 26.69% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 134.42 | 60.26 |
| Current ratioi | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.56 |
Over the past year, TJX and COST have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.28), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.06% | -2.18% |
| CAGRi | -8.07% | -2.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.89% | 20.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.51 | -0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.71 | -0.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.06% | 18.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.77% | 15.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.35% | 6.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.38% | 8.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.04% | 4.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.53% | 8.96% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +93.55% | +109.90% |
| CAGRi | +14.13% | +16.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.44% | 22.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.73 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.68% | 31.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.77% | 15.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.85% | 9.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.66% | 11.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.73% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.72% | 16.26% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +291.90% | +617.31% |
| CAGRi | +14.64% | +21.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.20% | 22.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.80 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 1.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.55% | 31.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.77% | 15.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.45% | 6.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.29% | 9.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.40% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.23% | 16.26% |
| Category | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The TJX Companies, Inc. | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Discount Stores |
| Core business | TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price retailer operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, and HomeSense across the US, Canada, Europe (TK Maxx), and Australia. TJX's business model is opportunistic buying — purchasing excess inventory, canceled orders, and overstock from brands at deep discounts (20-60% off wholesale) and passing savings to consumers. TJX's 1,200+ buyers source from 21,000+ vendors globally in real-time, creating a 'treasure hunt' shopping experience where inventory constantly changes. No two T.J. Maxx store visits have the same selection — creating repeat visit motivation. | Costco operates 880+ warehouse clubs globally selling bulk merchandise at near-wholesale prices to members who pay an annual membership fee ($65 Gold Star, $130 Executive). Costco's model generates most profit from memberships rather than merchandise — the warehouse floor operates at near-zero markup (10-12% average) while the $4.6B annual membership fee provides high-margin recurring revenue. Costco's Kirkland Signature private label brand is one of the highest-volume consumer packaged goods brands in the US. Costco serves both households and small businesses with bulk packaging at exceptional value. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on TJX's comparable store sales growth, inventory buying opportunities in a promotional retail environment, international expansion (TK Maxx Europe), and operating margin consistency. | Investors focus on Costco's membership renewal rates (93%+ in US/Canada), new warehouse openings, membership fee increases, e-commerce growth, and international expansion (particularly Asia). |
- Treasure hunt model is e-commerce resistant: TJX's constantly changing, discounted inventory creates an in-store experience that cannot be replicated online — consumers visit specifically for the discovery shopping experience
- Counter-cyclical business model: when department stores and brands overproduce, TJX's buyers have more inventory to source at deeper discounts — recessions and retail overproduction benefit TJX's inventory sourcing
- International expansion runway: TJX operates in 9 countries with TK Maxx in Europe — the off-price model exports well, providing expansion beyond US market saturation
- Membership fee model with 93% renewal rate: Costco's membership economics are exceptional — 93% annual renewal in the US demonstrates customer loyalty while membership fee revenue grows organically as member count expands
- Kirkland Signature private label at exceptional value: Kirkland products (batteries, olive oil, wine, clothing) offer near-national-brand quality at 20-40% lower prices — driving basket loyalty and protecting Costco from brand-level pricing comparisons
- Inflation protection for consumer budgets: Costco's bulk pricing provides significant per-unit cost savings vs grocery and big-box alternatives — the value proposition strengthens in inflationary environments when household budgets are strained
- Inventory sourcing depends on excess retail production: if brands rationalize inventory management (making less, ordering more carefully), TJX's sourcing opportunities become more competitive
- Competition from online resale (ThredUp, Poshmark, eBay): secondhand and resale platforms offer similar 'treasure hunt' experiences online — increasingly competing for the same value-seeking shopper
- Execution risk of 1,200+ buyers: TJX's business depends on 1,200 experienced buyers maintaining vendor relationships and deal quality — a buyer talent market challenge
- Premium valuation: Costco trades at 45-55x earnings — one of the highest P/E ratios in retail reflecting membership model quality but leaving minimal margin of safety for execution misses
- E-commerce challenge for bulk warehousing: Costco's e-commerce offering is improving but the warehouse experience (sampling, bulk pickup) doesn't translate perfectly online — Amazon and Walmart grocery capture some Costco's e-commerce share
- International execution risk: Costco's Japan, Korea, and Australia operations are strong; expansion into new markets has mixed track record — the warehouse model requires large facility investment that pays off slowly
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