TJX vs ROST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TJX and Ross are the two dominant US off-price retailers with remarkably similar operating models and margins. TJX's key advantages are HomeGoods (the leading home goods off-price banner) and international operations. Ross's key advantage is a lower-income demographic target that provides even stronger recession resilience and simpler US-only operations. Both are excellent long-term retail compounders.
TJX vs ROST is the closest direct comparison in retail — both dominate off-price with similar margins, both grow unit count, and both beat full-price retailers in economic downturns. TJX offers HomeGoods and international; Ross offers a simpler model targeting the most value-seeking consumer demographic.
ROST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ROST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+55.02% vs -8.97%), though TJX has the better forward P/E setup (23.47x vs 25.61x for ROST). ROST leads on both revenue growth (13.30%) and operating margin (17.62%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TJX (+26.11%) than for ROST (+18.11%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer global off-price scale with HomeGoods, T.K. Maxx UK/Europe, and Winners Canada providing category and geographic diversification
- value the largest global vendor buying organization as a structural competitive moat in off-price merchandise sourcing
- want multi-banner strategy covering the widest range of off-price merchandise categories and customer segments
- are comfortable with international currency risk and HomeGoods home goods cycle sensitivity
- prefer a simpler US-only off-price model targeting the most value-conscious consumer demographic with highest recession resilience
- value dd's DISCOUNTS as a second banner addressing an even lower price-point customer in the off-price market
- want off-price retail exposure without international operations complexity and currency risk exposure
- are comfortable with no home goods-only equivalent to HomeGoods limiting merchandise category diversification
| Metric | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.7 | 55.8 |
| AI ranki | #437 | #258 |
| Latest closei | $127.24 | $226.61 |
| 1M returni | -9.46% | -5.20% |
| 6M returni | -17.90% | +7.30% |
| 1Y returni | -8.97% | +55.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.13K (-8.7%) started 2025-09-22 | $15.66K (+56.6%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $20.54K (+105.4%) started 2021-09-22 | $21.55K (+115.5%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $43.01K (+330.1%) started 2016-09-22 | $42.04K (+320.4%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $149.27B | $73.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.02 | 27.64 |
| Forward P/Ei | 23.47 | 25.61 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.51 | 2.22 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.55 | 2.98 |
| Analyst targeti | $170.40 | $269.94 |
| Target upsidei | +26.11% | +18.11% |
| Metric | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.40% | 13.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 23.60% | 70.50% |
| EPS growthi | +23.60% | +70.50% |
| FCF margini | +7.05% | +8.80% |
| Operating margini | 10.91% | 17.62% |
| Profit margini | 9.73% | 10.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 62.17% | 42.63% |
| Return on equityi | 62.17% | 42.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.43% | 0.78% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.50% | 20.56% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 134.42 | 70.28 |
| Current ratioi | 1.15 | 1.61 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, TJX and ROST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.57), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.73% | +56.64% |
| CAGRi | -8.77% | +57.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.70% | 26.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.56 | 1.67 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.77 | 2.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.06% | 13.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.45% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.02% | 2.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.94% | 4.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.04% | 5.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.53% | 11.87% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +93.74% | +106.72% |
| CAGRi | +14.15% | +15.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.41% | 29.65% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.68% | 40.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.45% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.79% | 9.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.58% | 12.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.73% | 22.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.72% | 21.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +276.78% | +285.01% |
| CAGRi | +14.19% | +14.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.19% | 31.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.55% | 51.41% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.45% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.45% | 10.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.26% | 14.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.40% | 22.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.23% | 38.97% |
| Category | TJX | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The TJX Companies, Inc. | Ross Stores, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | TJX Companies operates T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Sierra, and Winners/T.K. Maxx globally. Its 4,900+ store fleet and global buying organization source closeout and excess inventory from 21,000+ vendors across 100+ countries. HomeGoods is a major differentiator — TJX's home goods banner has no equivalent in Ross's portfolio. International operations (T.K. Maxx UK/Europe, Winners Canada) provide geographic diversification unavailable at Ross. | Ross Stores operates Ross Dress for Less (1,700+ stores) and dd's DISCOUNTS (300+ stores) exclusively in the US, offering off-price apparel, accessories, footwear, and home goods. Ross targets a lower-income demographic than T.J. Maxx, making it particularly resilient during economic downturns when value-seeking behavior intensifies most sharply. Ross operates at comparable operating margins to TJX but with a simpler, US-only model. |
| Investor focus | Investors track US and international comparable store sales, gross margin maintenance, HomeGoods performance, and capital allocation efficiency across the multi-banner strategy. | Investors track comparable store sales growth, new store openings targeting underserved Midwest and Northeast markets, dd's DISCOUNTS expansion, and operating margin sustainability above 12%. |
- HomeGoods banner provides a pure-play home goods off-price destination that Ross Stores does not offer at the same scale
- International operations (T.K. Maxx in Europe and Canada) provide geographic diversification and growth markets beyond the US
- Largest global off-price buying organization with 21,000+ vendor relationships provides inventory access that smaller competitors cannot match
- Lower-income target demographic creates stronger economic cycle resilience — Ross shoppers trade in from full-price retail even more aggressively during recessions
- US-only focus provides simpler operational model with no currency risk or international execution complexity
- dd's DISCOUNTS banner targets an even lower price-point customer, extending Ross's market reach to cost-conscious shoppers below T.J. Maxx's demographic
- International operations add currency risk and country-specific execution complexity that US-only Ross doesn't face
- HomeGoods comparable store sales can lag apparel banners during periods of softer home goods consumer demand
- Premium valuation relative to Ross reflects its scale and international diversification — any execution miss is more costly
- No home goods-only equivalent to HomeGoods limits Ross's merchandise category diversification vs TJX
- Midwest and Northeast expansion carries real estate cost and competitive market risk in markets where Ross has less established brand recognition
- Like TJX, Ross is primarily an in-store treasure-hunt experience with limited digital commerce presence
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