MAR vs HLT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MAR and HLT are both capital-light, fee-based hotel franchisors with similar high-margin business models. MAR has the largest global footprint and brand breadth, while HLT has often delivered faster net unit growth and trades at a premium reflecting that growth profile.
MAR vs HLT is a comparison of the two dominant global hotel franchise companies, both benefiting from asset-light economics but differing in scale, growth rate, and geographic mix.
MAR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MAR leads on both 1-year return (+27.46%) and forward P/E quality (26.67x vs 30.78x for HLT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MAR leads on both revenue growth (11.10%) and operating margin (65.28%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +8.42% for MAR and +9.63% for HLT.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the largest, most globally diversified hotel brand portfolio
- Value scale advantages in loyalty and distribution
- Prefer a slightly more reasonably valued hotel franchisor
- Want exposure to the fastest-growing major hotel franchisor by unit count
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for superior growth
- Believe Hilton's brand execution will continue outpacing peers
| Metric | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.5 | 58.0 |
| AI ranki | #391 | #212 |
| Latest closei | $334.00 | $302.54 |
| 1M returni | -6.53% | -7.69% |
| 6M returni | +2.80% | +1.58% |
| 1Y returni | +27.46% | +13.56% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.65K (+26.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.36K (+13.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $24.78K (+147.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $23.99K (+139.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $57.52K (+475.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $69.29K (+592.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $91.55B | $72.44B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 36.38 | 47.19 |
| Forward P/Ei | 26.67 | 30.78 |
| Price/Salesi | 10.89 | 12.63 |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.74 | 16.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $380.64 | $352.85 |
| Target upsidei | +8.42% | +9.63% |
| Metric | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.10% | 2.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 4.30% | 14.10% |
| EPS growthi | +4.30% | +14.10% |
| FCF margini | +27.90% | +27.31% |
| Operating margini | 65.28% | 62.99% |
| Profit margini | 35.03% | 31.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.83% | 0.19% |
| Payout ratioi | 28.36% | 8.81% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.48 | 0.55 |
Over the past year, MAR and HLT have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.82), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +26.54% | +13.61% |
| CAGRi | +26.57% | +13.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.28% | 23.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.32 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.32% | 13.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.03% | 13.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.05% | 4.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.94% | 5.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.97% | 3.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.99% | 6.34% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +140.69% | +137.37% |
| CAGRi | +19.23% | +18.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.78% | 26.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 0.90 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.50% | 32.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.03% | 13.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.46% | 7.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.94% | 10.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.40% | 7.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.36% | 17.16% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +429.34% | +565.98% |
| CAGRi | +18.14% | +20.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.91% | 28.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.79 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.26% | 50.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.03% | 13.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.77% | 8.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.09% | 11.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.19% | 12.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.26% | 30.10% |
| Category | MAR | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Marriott International, Inc. | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Lodging | Lodging |
| Core business | Marriott is the world's largest hotel company by room count, operating a capital-light, fee-based franchise and management model across more than 30 brands spanning luxury to budget segments. | Hilton is one of the world's largest hospitality companies, franchising and managing hotels across 20-plus brands, also operating on an asset-light, fee-based model with a strong U.S. concentration. |
| Investor focus | Investors track global RevPAR (revenue per available room) trends, net unit growth in its development pipeline, and Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program engagement. | Investors track Hilton's net unit growth rate, which has often outpaced Marriott's, RevPAR trends, and the strength of its Hilton Honors loyalty program. |
- Largest global hotel footprint with the broadest brand portfolio
- Capital-light franchise model generates high-margin, recurring fee income
- Bonvoy loyalty program drives direct bookings and customer retention
- Industry-leading net unit growth rate among major hotel franchisors
- Highly capital-light model with strong free cash flow conversion
- Strong U.S. market position with growing international development pipeline
- RevPAR growth sensitive to global travel demand and macroeconomic cycles
- Highly competitive new-unit development pipeline against Hilton and others
- Geopolitical and regional disruptions can affect international segments
- Slightly more U.S.-concentrated than Marriott's more global portfolio
- Premium valuation reflects high growth expectations
- Sensitive to the same macro travel demand cycles as all hotel companies
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