Data as of:
LIVE
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Off-Price Retail
$237.12
-29.74% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Off-Price Retail
$226.61
-3.44% this month
Comparison scoreboard
ROST LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
BURL 47.2
ROST ✓55.8
1Y Returni
BURL -10.48%
ROST ✓+55.12%
Fwd P/Ei
BURL ✓19.16
ROST 25.61
Target Up.i
BURL ✓+39.87%
ROST +18.11%
Op. Margini
BURL 6.72%
ROST ✓17.62%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/19/2026
Quick take
BURL vs ROST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BURL (Burlington Stores) and ROST (Ross Stores) are both major U.S. off-price retailers selling discounted brand-name merchandise — Ross is the more established, higher-margin operator with over 2,000 stores, while Burlington is on a multi-year operational improvement journey with a smaller-format strategy to catch up to Ross and TJX margins.
BURL vs ROST is off-price retail turnaround opportunity (Burlington's margin gap closing) versus off-price retail excellence (Ross's consistent execution and buyback return) — both benefiting from department store share loss but at different points on the quality spectrum.
Live analysis · updated 9/19/2026
ROST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ROST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+55.12% vs -10.48%), though BURL has the better forward P/E setup (19.16x vs 25.61x for ROST). ROST leads on both revenue growth (13.30%) and operating margin (17.62%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BURL (+39.87%) than for ROST (+18.11%).
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
BURL
ROST
Recent returns
BURL
ROST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
BURL
Price target range
analyst mean$364.75
current price$237.12
+39.9% upside to analyst mean
ROST · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.9/5.0)
14 Buy / 5 Hold / 1 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$124.24
analyst mean$269.94
current price$226.61
+18.1% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
BURL may suit investors who:
- Want off-price retail exposure with a turnaround angle — Burlington's margin gap to Ross and TJX represents upside if its operational improvements execute as planned
- Value Burlington's smaller store format strategy as a path to more store locations and better inventory productivity than competitors with large-format stores
- See Burlington's lower current margins as opportunity rather than a red flag — the gap versus Ross reflects execution potential, not structural disadvantage
ROST may suit investors who:
- Want the best-executed, highest-margin U.S. off-price retailer after TJX, with consistent comparable store sales and a long track record of shareholder value creation
- Value Ross's dd's DISCOUNTS chain as incremental market coverage at a lower price point and its disciplined buyback program returning steady free cash flow
- Prefer proven off-price execution and consistent margin performance over the turnaround potential of a lower-margin operator like Burlington
Performance & AI score
| Metric | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 47.2 | 55.8 |
| AI ranki | #666 | #258 |
| Latest closei | $237.12 | $226.61 |
| 1M returni | -29.74% | -3.44% |
| 6M returni | -24.00% | +7.57% |
| 1Y returni | -10.48% | +55.12% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.95K (-10.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $15.51K (+55.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $8.11K (-18.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $21.76K (+117.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $28.38K (+183.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $43.01K (+330.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $16.38B | $73.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 23.41 | 27.64 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.16 | 25.61 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.22 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.77 | 2.98 |
| Analyst targeti | $364.75 | $269.94 |
| Target upsidei | +39.87% | +18.11% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.00% | 13.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 95.90% | 70.50% |
| EPS growthi | +95.90% | +70.50% |
| FCF margini | +0.88% | +8.80% |
| Operating margini | 6.72% | 17.62% |
| Profit margini | 5.85% | 10.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 41.41% | 42.63% |
| Return on equityi | 41.41% | 42.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.78% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 20.56% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.47 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 294.97 | 70.28 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.61 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.38 | 0.93 |
Correlation
Over the past year, BURL and ROST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.53
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.65
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.68
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdowni38.93%
ROST max drawdowni13.03%
BURL max wkly dropi21.44%
ROST max wkly dropi11.87%
5Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdowni64.34%
ROST max drawdowni40.72%
BURL max wkly dropi23.34%
ROST max wkly dropi21.93%
10Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdowni68.87%
ROST max drawdowni51.41%
BURL max wkly dropi38.37%
ROST max wkly dropi38.97%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.48% | +55.12% |
| CAGRi | -10.49% | +55.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.20% | 26.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.19 | 1.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.25 | 2.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.93% | 13.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.72% | 2.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.52% | 4.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.24% | 5.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.44% | 11.87% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -18.87% | +108.66% |
| CAGRi | -4.10% | +15.87% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.42% | 29.64% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.34% | 40.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.53% | 8.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.75% | 12.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.95% | 22.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.34% | 21.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +183.84% | +293.94% |
| CAGRi | +11.00% | +14.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.08% | 31.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.87% | 51.41% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.24% | 10.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.38% | 14.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 29.83% | 22.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.37% | 38.97% |
Business comparison
| Category | BURL | ROST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Burlington Stores, Inc. | Ross Stores, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Burlington Stores is a major U.S. off-price retailer selling discounted brand-name apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods at 20-60% off department store prices across approximately 1,000 stores — focusing on a smaller store format strategy and more frequent merchandise turnover. | Ross Stores is the second-largest U.S. off-price retailer (behind TJX), operating Ross Dress for Less stores and dd's DISCOUNTS for more budget-conscious shoppers, selling brand-name apparel, accessories, footwear, and home goods at significant discounts across approximately 2,000+ stores. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Burlington's comparable store sales, new store openings and productivity, merchandise margins, and the company's execution of its smaller-store format strategy as a path to better returns and expanded addressable store locations. | Investors track Ross's comparable store sales, merchandise margins, new store openings, and the company's consistent execution of the off-price model as one of the best-managed and most profitable specialty retailers in the U.S. |
BURL strengths
- Off-price retail model benefits from department store distress — as department stores reduce purchasing commitments, more opportunistic branded merchandise becomes available to off-price buyers
- Burlington's smaller store format strategy (relative to TJX and Ross) allows expansion into more markets and locations while improving inventory turn and fresh merchandise perception
- Off-price shopping provides a compelling value proposition that gains share during consumer spending downturns as shoppers trade from full-price retail
ROST strengths
- Industry-leading off-price execution — Ross has consistently delivered strong comparable store sales and operating margins, outperforming both department stores and Burlington
- dd's DISCOUNTS provides a lower price point tier that serves budget consumers and expands the total addressable market
- Strong balance sheet and consistent buyback program — Ross has returned significant capital to shareholders through decades of disciplined free cash flow generation
Risks to watch — BURL
- Burlington has lower operating margins than TJX and Ross — the company is in a multi-year journey to close the margin gap through buying organization improvements and mix optimization
- Smaller store format strategy reduces average inventory depth versus larger format competitors — execution requires rapid inventory turnover and disciplined buying
- Burlington's fashion and apparel mix (higher exposure to women's apparel than competitors) can be more volatile than Ross's more diversified off-price assortment
Risks to watch — ROST
- Ross operates in a highly competitive off-price market — TJX (Marshalls, T.J. Maxx) is significantly larger and has more brand awareness advantages in many markets
- Off-price retail's treasure-hunt model depends on consistent merchandise flow — if branded vendors tighten distribution and reduce off-price availability, sourcing quality can suffer
- Real estate market dynamics affect new store opening productivity — rising retail rents in some markets increase occupancy costs for new Ross locations
Frequently asked questions
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