RCL vs CCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RCL has generally been viewed as the premium, better-positioned operator with stronger margins and a faster deleveraging path, while CCL is the largest cruise operator by volume but carries the heaviest debt burden and is further behind in margin recovery. Both are highly levered, cyclical plays on consumer travel spending.
RCL vs CCL contrasts the cruise industry's premium-positioned, faster-deleveraging operator against the largest-by-volume operator still working through a heavier pandemic-era debt load.
RCL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RCL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-24.55% vs -30.56%), though CCL has the better forward P/E setup (9.39x vs 13.77x for RCL). RCL leads on both revenue growth (6.50%) and operating margin (27.07%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CCL (+42.55%) than for RCL (+24.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the cruise industry's premium brand positioning
- Value a faster deleveraging trajectory and stronger margins
- Believe innovative ship design will continue driving booking strength
- Want exposure to the largest cruise operator by passenger volume
- See more turnaround upside given its lower starting valuation
- Are comfortable with a higher debt load and longer recovery timeline
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.9 | 27.9 |
| AI ranki | #494 | #2399 |
| Latest closei | $245.81 | $21.84 |
| 1M returni | -18.22% | -18.17% |
| 6M returni | -9.63% | -12.43% |
| 1Y returni | -24.55% | -30.56% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.54K (-24.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $6.94K (-30.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $30.12K (+201.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.4K (-6.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $45.88K (+358.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $6.03K (-39.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $74.73B | $33.91B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.27 | 11.15 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.77 | 9.39 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.48 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.22 | 2.12 |
| Analyst targeti | $346.92 | $35.30 |
| Target upsidei | +24.16% | +42.55% |
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.50% | 5.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.60% | -6.50% |
| EPS growthi | -4.60% | -6.50% |
| FCF margini | -8.12% | +6.95% |
| Operating margini | 27.07% | 12.79% |
| Profit margini | 23.54% | 11.24% |
| ROIC proxyi | 44.67% | 26.69% |
| Return on equityi | 44.67% | 26.69% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.76% | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 30.88% | 13.51% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.78 | 2.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 224.82 | 201.56 |
| Current ratioi | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.11 | 0.21 |
Over the past year, RCL and CCL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.79), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -24.55% | -30.56% |
| CAGRi | -24.57% | -30.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.66% | 47.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.47 | -0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.74 | -0.93 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.37% | 35.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.37% | 35.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.48% | 16.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.13% | 18.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.53% | 9.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.26% | 18.26% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +198.72% | -6.02% |
| CAGRi | +24.49% | -1.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.17% | 54.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.90 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.64% | 75.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.81% | 35.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.61% | 32.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.82% | 38.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.22% | 23.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.40% | 30.91% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +313.70% | -46.61% |
| CAGRi | +15.26% | -6.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.25% | 57.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.67 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.30% | 90.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.81% | 67.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.16% | 50.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.14% | 58.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 31.78% | 33.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 53.98% | 57.24% |
| Category | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Royal Caribbean Group | Carnival Corporation & plc |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Royal Caribbean Group operates Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea, known for innovative, large, amenity-rich ships and a premium-to-mainstream brand positioning. | Carnival Corporation is the world's largest cruise operator by passenger volume, operating multiple brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess, Holland America, and Costa, spanning mainstream to premium segments. |
| Investor focus | Investors track booking trends, onboard spending per passenger, occupancy rates, and Royal Caribbean's deleveraging progress following pandemic-era debt buildup. | Investors track Carnival's deleveraging progress, occupancy and yield trends, and margin recovery as it works to restore pre-pandemic profitability levels. |
- Premium brand positioning with industry-leading ship innovation
- Strong booking momentum and pricing power post-pandemic recovery
- Diversified brand portfolio spanning mainstream to luxury segments
- Largest global cruise operator by passenger capacity and brand count
- Broad multi-brand portfolio reaching diverse customer segments and price points
- Strong booking recovery and improving yields post-pandemic
- Still working through elevated debt levels taken on during the pandemic
- Fuel cost volatility directly affects operating margins
- Highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending cycles
- Carries the highest debt load among major cruise operators from pandemic-era borrowing
- Interest expense remains a significant drag on net income
- Execution risk in continuing to improve margins toward pre-pandemic levels
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