RCL vs CCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Royal Caribbean has generally commanded premium pricing and stronger margins through newer ships and proprietary destinations, while Carnival operates the largest global fleet with broader, more value-oriented market positioning and a heavier debt load still being worked down. Both are cyclical, debt-sensitive travel stocks benefiting from the ongoing post-pandemic cruise demand recovery, but Royal Caribbean has generally executed with stronger yield and margin performance. The choice depends on whether an investor prefers premium positioning and stronger recent execution or a larger-scale, potentially more discounted value recovery story.
Use this comparison to weigh premium positioning and stronger recent execution (Royal Caribbean) against scale and a potentially more attractively priced recovery story (Carnival) within the cyclical cruise industry.
CCL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CCL leads on both 1-year return (-8.25%) and forward P/E quality (9.39x vs 13.77x for RCL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. RCL leads on both revenue growth (6.50%) and operating margin (27.07%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CCL (+42.55%) than for RCL (+24.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the cruise industry through a premium-positioned, higher-margin operator
- Value a stronger recent track record of booking and yield growth
- Are comfortable with cyclical, discretionary consumer spending exposure
- Prefer a company further along in reducing pandemic-era debt
- Want exposure to the largest cruise operator by fleet size and passenger volume
- Believe a broader value-oriented positioning can drive a longer recovery runway
- Are comfortable with a higher debt load and more gradual margin recovery
- See potential for valuation re-rating as profitability continues to normalize
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.3 | 28.0 |
| AI ranki | #413 | #2293 |
| Latest closei | $280.01 | $26.46 |
| 1M returni | +12.32% | +19.67% |
| 3M returni | -4.74% | -1.49% |
| 6M returni | +5.29% | -3.11% |
| 1Y returni | -10.01% | -8.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.38K (-6.2%) started 2025-10-16 | $9.38K (-6.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $33.14K (+231.4%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.44K (+14.4%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $49.07K (+390.7%) started 2016-10-17 | $7.27K (-27.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $74.73B | $33.91B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.27 | 11.15 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.77 | 9.39 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.48 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.22 | 2.12 |
| Analyst targeti | $346.92 | $35.30 |
| Target upsidei | +24.16% | +42.55% |
| Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.50% | 5.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.60% | -6.50% |
| EPS growthi | -4.60% | -6.50% |
| FCF margini | -8.12% | +6.95% |
| Operating margini | 27.07% | 12.79% |
| Profit margini | 23.54% | 11.24% |
| ROIC proxyi | 44.67% | 26.69% |
| Return on equityi | 44.67% | 26.69% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.76% | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 30.86% | 19.82% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.78 | 2.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 224.82 | 201.56 |
| Current ratioi | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.11 | 0.21 |
Over the past year, RCL and CCL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.79), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.20% | -6.20% |
| CAGRi | -6.21% | -6.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.04% | 49.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.83% | 35.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.22% | 16.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.80% | 19.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.53% | 9.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.26% | 18.26% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +228.71% | +14.40% |
| CAGRi | +26.90% | +2.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.39% | 55.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.64% | 74.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.46% | 22.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.94% | 30.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.05% | 36.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.22% | 23.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.40% | 30.91% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +345.57% | -35.61% |
| CAGRi | +16.12% | -4.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.33% | 57.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.30% | 90.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.46% | 60.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.35% | 51.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.24% | 58.95% | |
| Max daily dropi | 31.78% | 33.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 53.98% | 57.24% |
| Category | RCL | CCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Royal Caribbean Group | Carnival Corporation & plc |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Royal Caribbean Group operates cruise brands including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea, focused on premium and innovative onboard experiences and private island destinations. | Carnival operates the largest global cruise fleet across multiple brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America, focused on broad market and value-oriented cruise experiences. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch booking trends and pricing (yield) growth, onboard spending per passenger, and progress paying down debt taken on during the pandemic-era travel shutdown. | Investors focus on occupancy and booking trends, debt reduction progress, and margin improvement as the company works to restore profitability to pre-pandemic levels. |
- Strong pricing power and yield growth from premium ship experiences and proprietary destinations
- Track record of exceeding booking and earnings expectations in the post-pandemic recovery
- Newer, more fuel-efficient ships support margin improvement over time
- Largest cruise fleet globally provides significant scale and brand diversification
- Improving occupancy and booking trends support continued post-pandemic earnings recovery
- Broad price-point positioning captures a wide range of consumer segments
- Still carries elevated debt levels from the pandemic period, though improving
- Cruise demand remains sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and macroeconomic conditions
- Fuel price volatility and geopolitical disruptions to itineraries can affect costs and demand
- Carries higher debt levels than some peers, leaving less balance sheet flexibility
- Historically thinner margins than premium-focused competitors
- Recovery in full profitability to pre-pandemic levels has been more gradual than at some peers
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