CCL vs NCLH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings are both major global cruise operators recovering from pandemic-era disruption, but Carnival operates the world's largest fleet with a broad mass-market to luxury brand portfolio, while Norwegian operates a smaller, more premium-and-luxury-weighted brand portfolio.
Carnival offers scale advantages through the world's largest cruise fleet and diversified brand portfolio, while Norwegian offers more concentrated exposure to higher-yielding premium and luxury cruise segments. Consider whether you prefer Carnival's scale and diversification or Norwegian's premium-weighted positioning.
CCL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CCL leads on both 1-year return (+4.23%) and forward P/E quality (9.39x vs 9.81x for NCLH), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CCL is growing revenue faster (5.30%), while NCLH maintains the higher operating margin (14.04%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CCL (+42.55%) than for NCLH (+24.20%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the world's largest cruise fleet and most diversified multi-brand cruise portfolio
- Believe continued booking demand recovery will support ongoing occupancy and pricing improvement
- Are comfortable with elevated debt levels requiring sustained free cash flow generation to reduce
- Value scale advantages across mass-market, premium, and luxury cruise segments
- Want more concentrated exposure to higher-yielding premium and luxury cruise segments
- Believe the multi-brand portfolio spanning contemporary to ultra-luxury supports strong pricing power
- Are comfortable with a smaller overall fleet scale relative to the largest cruise operators
- Value continued improvement in occupancy and net yield metrics as demand recovers
| Metric | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 28.4 | 26.5 |
| AI ranki | #2329 | #2508 |
| Latest closei | $30.05 | $17.94 |
| 1M returni | +16.65% | +18.49% |
| 3M returni | +4.56% | -9.21% |
| 6M returni | +17.06% | +4.30% |
| 1Y returni | +4.23% | -19.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.47K (+4.7%) started 2025-11-03 | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $12.97K (+29.7%) started 2021-11-03 | $6.57K (-34.3%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $7.88K (-21.2%) started 2016-11-03 | $4.82K (-51.8%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $33.91B | $7.65B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.15 | 10.09 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.39 | 9.81 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.12 | 2.31 |
| Analyst targeti | $35.30 | $20.68 |
| Target upsidei | +42.55% | +24.20% |
| Metric | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.30% | 4.90% |
| Earnings growthi | -6.50% | 616.30% |
| EPS growthi | -6.50% | +616.30% |
| FCF margini | +6.95% | -16.55% |
| Operating margini | 12.79% | 14.04% |
| Profit margini | 11.24% | 7.49% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.69% | 36.73% |
| Return on equityi | 26.69% | 36.73% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.82% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 19.82% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 2.34 | 1.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 201.56 | 621.05 |
| Current ratioi | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.21 | 0.08 |
Over the past year, CCL and NCLH have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.67% | -19.12% |
| CAGRi | +4.68% | -19.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.81% | 56.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | -0.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.89% | 43.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.59% | 28.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.18% | 22.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.51% | 25.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.06% | 15.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.26% | 19.12% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +29.69% | -34.33% |
| CAGRi | +5.34% | -8.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.25% | 57.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.26% | 64.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.59% | 38.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.82% | 35.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.34% | 37.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.25% | 18.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.91% | 30.02% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -30.22% | -51.79% |
| CAGRi | -3.54% | -7.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.02% | 62.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.22 | 0.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.37% | 87.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.62% | 70.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 51.73% | 48.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.10% | 56.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 33.18% | 35.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 57.24% | 66.25% |
| Category | CCL | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Carnival Corporation & plc | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | The world's largest cruise operator, running multiple cruise line brands spanning mass-market, premium, and luxury segments, operating a large fleet of ships across global itineraries and destinations. | A global cruise operator running the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands, positioned across contemporary, premium, and luxury cruise market segments. |
| Investor focus | Booking volume and pricing trends, occupancy and yield recovery, and progress reducing debt taken on during the pandemic-era travel disruption. | Booking volume and net yield trends, occupancy recovery progress, and debt reduction pace following pandemic-related balance sheet expansion. |
- Largest global cruise fleet and multi-brand portfolio provide scale advantages and diversified market segment exposure
- Broad brand portfolio spans mass-market, premium, and luxury cruise segments, capturing a wide range of customer demographics
- Continued booking demand recovery has supported occupancy and pricing improvement in recent periods
- Multi-brand portfolio spanning contemporary to ultra-luxury segments provides exposure to higher-yielding premium cruise demand
- Premium and luxury brand positioning within the portfolio supports higher per-passenger pricing than mass-market competitors
- Continued demand recovery has supported improving occupancy and net yield metrics
- Elevated debt levels taken on during the pandemic require sustained free cash flow generation to pay down over time
- Cruise demand and pricing remain sensitive to broader consumer discretionary spending and economic conditions
- Fuel cost volatility and new ship delivery capital requirements affect near-term margin and cash flow management
- Elevated debt levels taken on during the pandemic require sustained free cash flow generation to pay down over time
- Smaller overall fleet scale relative to the largest global cruise operators limits some cost efficiency advantages
- Cruise demand and pricing remain sensitive to broader consumer discretionary spending and economic conditions
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