EXPE vs BKNG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BKNG is the larger, more profitable, internationally dominant online travel agency, particularly strong in European hotel bookings, while EXPE is more North American-focused with differentiated exposure through Vrbo's vacation rental business. BKNG has historically delivered superior margins and stock performance.
EXPE vs BKNG is a comparison of the two largest global online travel agencies, with Booking Holdings offering superior scale and margins internationally, and Expedia offering a more North American, vacation-rental-diversified alternative.
EXPE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. EXPE leads on both 1-year return (+25.88%) and forward P/E quality (13.62x vs 16.61x for BKNG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, EXPE is growing revenue faster (14.00%), while BKNG maintains the higher operating margin (34.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BKNG (+15.99%) than for EXPE (+2.97%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to North American online travel and vacation rentals via Vrbo
- See upside in Expedia's margin improvement initiatives
- Prefer a relatively lower valuation than the sector leader
- Want exposure to the global online travel market leader
- Value industry-leading margins and free cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with greater international and currency exposure
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.5 | 40.8 |
| AI ranki | #338 | #1111 |
| Latest closei | $279.35 | $167.90 |
| 1M returni | -14.38% | -21.17% |
| 6M returni | +16.68% | -21.80% |
| 1Y returni | +25.88% | -38.30% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.59K (+25.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $6.17K (-38.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $18.27K (+82.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $17.95K (+79.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $28.46K (+184.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $29.02K (+190.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $39.54B | $154.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.71 | 22.82 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.62 | 16.61 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.51 | 5.60 |
| Analyst targeti | $339.23 | $238.50 |
| Target upsidei | +2.97% | +15.99% |
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.00% | 8.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 188.70% | 130.00% |
| EPS growthi | +188.70% | +130.00% |
| FCF margini | +21.87% | +27.36% |
| Operating margini | 18.98% | 34.41% |
| Profit margini | 12.97% | 25.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 89.49% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 89.49% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | 0.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 11.07% | 17.86% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Debt/equityi | 230.27 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.80 | 1.09 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 1.02 |
Over the past year, EXPE and BKNG have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.05), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +25.88% | -38.30% |
| CAGRi | +25.90% | -38.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.17% | 2003.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.93 | 18.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.44% | 97.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 39.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.35% | 23.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.89% | 27.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.26% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.63% | 96.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +82.26% | +45.03% |
| CAGRi | +12.77% | +7.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.38% | 898.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.58 | 8.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.86% | 97.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 42.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.05% | 13.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.66% | 18.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.78% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.90% | 96.05% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +173.61% | +134.43% |
| CAGRi | +10.59% | +8.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.28% | 634.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 5.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.51% | 97.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.63% | 42.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.78% | 12.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.22% | 16.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.39% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.46% | 96.05% |
| Category | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Expedia Group, Inc. | Booking Holdings Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Expedia Group operates a portfolio of online travel brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, offering hotel, flight, and vacation rental bookings primarily to U.S. and North American consumers. | Booking Holdings operates Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak, and Agoda, making it the world's largest online travel agency with a dominant international hotel booking presence, particularly in Europe and Asia. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Expedia's gross bookings growth, B2B and Vrbo vacation rental segment performance, and margin improvement initiatives under ongoing platform consolidation. | Investors track Booking.com's global room-night growth, take-rate trends, and the company's industry-leading margins and free cash flow generation. |
- Strong North American brand recognition across Expedia and Hotels.com
- Vrbo provides differentiated exposure to the vacation rental market
- Growing B2B travel technology business diversifies revenue streams
- Dominant global market position, especially strong in European and Asian hotel bookings
- Industry-leading margins and free cash flow conversion
- Highly effective performance marketing and direct booking growth
- Historically lower margins than Booking Holdings
- More concentrated in North American markets than its global peer
- Vrbo faces intense competition from Airbnb in vacation rentals
- Greater international exposure brings currency and geopolitical risk
- Intense competition from Expedia, Airbnb, and Google Travel
- Regulatory scrutiny in Europe around platform competition practices
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