EXPE vs BKNG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BKNG is the larger, more profitable, internationally dominant online travel agency, particularly strong in European hotel bookings, while EXPE is more North American-focused with differentiated exposure through Vrbo's vacation rental business. BKNG has historically delivered superior margins and stock performance.
EXPE vs BKNG is a comparison of the two largest global online travel agencies, with Booking Holdings offering superior scale and margins internationally, and Expedia offering a more North American, vacation-rental-diversified alternative.
EXPE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. EXPE leads on both 1-year return (+48.91%) and forward P/E quality (13.62x vs 16.61x for BKNG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, EXPE is growing revenue faster (14.00%), while BKNG maintains the higher operating margin (34.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BKNG (+15.99%) than for EXPE (+2.97%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to North American online travel and vacation rentals via Vrbo
- See upside in Expedia's margin improvement initiatives
- Prefer a relatively lower valuation than the sector leader
- Want exposure to the global online travel market leader
- Value industry-leading margins and free cash flow generation
- Are comfortable with greater international and currency exposure
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.8 | 40.7 |
| AI ranki | #831 | #1151 |
| Latest closei | $315.88 | $170.97 |
| 1M returni | +21.41% | +7.98% |
| 3M returni | -1.18% | -17.41% |
| 6M returni | +28.06% | +1.57% |
| 1Y returni | +48.91% | -31.50% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.77K (+47.7%) started 2025-11-05 | $6.96K (-30.4%) started 2025-11-05 |
| 5Y ago | $16.84K (+68.4%) started 2021-11-08 | $16.21K (+62.1%) started 2021-11-08 |
| 10Y ago | $27K (+170.0%) started 2016-11-07 | $28.91K (+189.1%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $39.54B | $154.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.71 | 22.82 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.62 | 16.61 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.51 | 5.60 |
| Analyst targeti | $339.23 | $238.50 |
| Target upsidei | +2.97% | +15.99% |
| Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.00% | 8.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 188.70% | 130.00% |
| EPS growthi | +188.70% | +130.00% |
| FCF margini | +21.87% | +27.36% |
| Operating margini | 18.98% | 34.41% |
| Profit margini | 12.97% | 25.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 89.49% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 89.49% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | 0.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 10.99% | 17.82% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Debt/equityi | 230.27 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.80 | 1.09 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 1.02 |
Over the past year, EXPE and BKNG have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.04), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +47.74% | -30.37% |
| CAGRi | +47.84% | -30.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.54% | 2019.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.93 | 0.95 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.43 | 19.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.44% | 96.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 37.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.41% | 26.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.28% | 30.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.26% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.63% | 96.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +67.99% | +30.95% |
| CAGRi | +10.95% | +5.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.43% | 899.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 8.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.86% | 97.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 41.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.53% | 14.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.85% | 19.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.78% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.90% | 96.05% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +159.56% | +133.51% |
| CAGRi | +10.02% | +8.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.63% | 635.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.49 | 5.29 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.51% | 97.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.86% | 41.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.94% | 13.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.30% | 17.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.39% | 96.02% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.46% | 96.05% |
| Category | EXPE | BKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Expedia Group, Inc. | Booking Holdings Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Expedia Group operates a portfolio of online travel brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, offering hotel, flight, and vacation rental bookings primarily to U.S. and North American consumers. | Booking Holdings operates Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak, and Agoda, making it the world's largest online travel agency with a dominant international hotel booking presence, particularly in Europe and Asia. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Expedia's gross bookings growth, B2B and Vrbo vacation rental segment performance, and margin improvement initiatives under ongoing platform consolidation. | Investors track Booking.com's global room-night growth, take-rate trends, and the company's industry-leading margins and free cash flow generation. |
- Strong North American brand recognition across Expedia and Hotels.com
- Vrbo provides differentiated exposure to the vacation rental market
- Growing B2B travel technology business diversifies revenue streams
- Dominant global market position, especially strong in European and Asian hotel bookings
- Industry-leading margins and free cash flow conversion
- Highly effective performance marketing and direct booking growth
- Historically lower margins than Booking Holdings
- More concentrated in North American markets than its global peer
- Vrbo faces intense competition from Airbnb in vacation rentals
- Greater international exposure brings currency and geopolitical risk
- Intense competition from Expedia, Airbnb, and Google Travel
- Regulatory scrutiny in Europe around platform competition practices
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